Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

Your August Predictions and Tropical Storm Chris

By: Weather456, 12:11 PM GMT on July 31, 2006

Tropical Storm Chris
In the last week of July, a vigorous tropical wave formed off the coast of Africa and slowly tracked westward. It was very slow to develop in an environment with considerable dry air from the Saharan Air Layer. Nonetheless, it was able to organize itself enough to develop into a tropical depression late on July 31. It strengthened and was designated a tropical storm early on August 1 six hours later, then moved west-northwest near the Lesser Antilles. As it moved westward, it was initially forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and threaten southern Florida. However, it encountered high shear and has now weakened into a tropical depression.

Current Storm Information
As of 8 a.m. AST August 4 (1200 UTC), Tropical Depression Chris was located within 20 nautical miles of 21.2°N, 71.1°W, or about 20 miles (30 km) south of Grand Turk Island. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with stronger gusts. Chris was moving toward the west at about 13 mph (21 km/h). The minimum central pressure was 1012 mbar (29.88 inHg).

Chris has weakened considerably from its peak intensity, but it is forecast to maintain its current strength over the next 48 hours as it continues moving to the west. Forecasters are uncertain whether it will survive as a tropical system to reach Cuba and eventually the Gulf of Mexico, or whether it will dissipate somewhere around the Bahamas.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with scattered areas of up to 5 inches (125 mm), are possible over parts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, and eastern Cuba.

The storm is forecast to continue moving to the west-northwest. It has however weakened considerably from its peak intensity, and further weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours. Forecasters are uncertain whether it will survive as a storm to reach Cuba and eventually the Gulf of Mexico, or whether it will dissipate somewhere around the Bahamas.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with scattered areas of up to 5 inches (125 mm), are possible over parts of Puerto Rico, the United States Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic. 1 to 2 inches (25 to 55 mm) of rain is possible over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and northern Haiti.

Tropical Storm Warnings
None


Figure 1: Tropical Storm Chris Depicted by Tracking The Eye.Net Hurricane Tracking Tool.

Tropical Storm Watches
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, from the northern border with Haiti easward to Samaná, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, including Acklins, Crooked Island, Inagua, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.
Tropical Storm Fabio
An area of low pressure tracked westward over the open Pacific in the last week of July. It gradually developed better organization and became a tropical depression on the afternoon of July 31. It continued to organize and was designated Tropical Storm Fabio six hours later.

Tropical Storm Fabio
An area of low pressure tracked westward over the open Pacific in the last week of July. It gradually developed better organization and became a tropical depression on the afternoon of July 31. It continued to organize and was designated Tropical Storm Fabio six hours later. The storm moved westward over open waters and did not strengthen significantly due to strong wind shear. Fabio weakened into a tropical depression on August 2, and degenerated into a remnant low the next day.

Tropical Storm Gilma
Tropical Depression Eight-E formed off the coast of Central America late on July 31, and slowly strengthened into a tropical storm by August 1. It encountered shearing winds and dry air, weakened to a depression the next day and soon dissipated.

Typhoon Prapiroon (Henry)
PAGASA named a system east of the Philippines as Tropical Depression Henry later on the same day that the JMA recognised it as a tropical depression. The JTWC upgraded this system to a tropical storm on the morning of August 1. Hong Kong Observatory also did so and issued the Tropical Cyclone Signal No. 1 that same afternoon, and shortly after the JMA upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Prapiroon. The name Prapiroon was submitted by Thailand and is the name of a Thai rain deity. The JMA upgraded the storm to a severe tropical storm on the morning of August 2. PAGASA ceased advisories on the storm shortly after as it moved out of its area of responsibility. The JTWC and the HKO upgraded Prapiroon to a typhoon at 3 a.m. UTC, while the JMA officially upgraded it to a typhoon at 12 p.m. UTC (8 p.m. local time). Prapiroon necessitated the first Tropical Cyclone Signal No.8 in Macau this year.[citation needed] Prapiroon made landfall shortly before 12 p.m. UTC on August 3.

Current Storm Information
As of 2100 UTC August 3, the official RSMC for the basin, the JMA, reported the location of Prapiroon at 22.0°N 109.9°E, with maximum sustained winds of 60 knots (115 km/h, 70 mph), and reported that it was moving west at 11 knots with a minimum central pressure of 975 hPa. The JTWC reported the storm to be centered about 215 nautical miles (400 km) west of Hong Kong, and that it had winds sustained at 45 knots (90 km/h, 50 mph).

Tropical Cyclone Signal No.8 is hoisted in Macau and Signal No.3 is in force in Hong Kong. The National Meteorological Center is maintaining a typhoon urgent warning and landfall is expected shortly


August Predictions
Well, July has seen our second name storm and might see Tropical Depression Three if 99L does develop, before 12am. What are your predictions for the upcoming month of August.

99L Becoming Better Organized..

By: Weather456, 2:25 PM GMT on July 25, 2006

Today's Question: What was costilest Hurricane before 1990?

Tropics Today
The area of disturbed weather that brought heavy rain to southeastern Texas and parts of Louisiana on Wednesday is now well inland. Moisture from this system will feed more showers and thunderstorms today through the southern Plains.

Elsewhere
There are tropical waves along 35 west, south of 15 north, along 46 west, south of 22 north, along 67 west, south of 24 north and along 84 west, south of 20 north. All waves with the exception of the wave along 64 west are moving west at about 6-7 degrees longitude per day.

The wave along 67 west is moving west at 8-10 degrees longitude per day as it starts to interact with the Atlantic high to the north. This high is producing a stronger pressure gradient over the Greater Antilles. This wave will bring the eastern and northeastern Caribbean a few showers and thunderstorms, but it is moving too fast to bring any prolonged rainfall. A large mass of African Dust showing up on both the United States and European satellite images of the Atlantic is causing any showers and thunderstorms with this wave to diminish quickly. This wave will bring showers into the southern Bahamas and Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night, then might enhance shower and thunderstorm development over the northern Bahamas and perhaps into southeastern Florida, Friday night into Saturday morning.

99L
A tropical wave, located about midway across the Atlantic, is beginning to show signs of some development. This wave is associated with a weak surface low pressure which is helping to maintain associated thunderstorms as it moves east. Additionally, upper level winds are forecast to slowly become more favorable in areas out ahead of this wave. It is possible that tropical development could occur with this wave in the next day or so. It will continue to be monitored closely.


Figure 1: 99L Invest

Hurricane Daniel: Review
On July 16, a tropical disturbance formed far to the south of Baja California and quickly increased in convective activity and organization. The NHC designated it as a tropical depression that night (July 17 UTC). The depression continued to organize and was designated as a tropical storm the next day. The storm continued to intensify and was declared a hurricane on July 18. Early on July 20 (UTC), Hurricane Daniel underwent rapid intenstification and reached major hurricane status (Category 3) and was later upgraded further to Category 4 status. After several repeated eyewall replacement cycles, Daniel later became an annular hurricane, allowing it to maintain category 4 status for longer than it otherwise would have. It crossed over into the Central North Pacific Basin early on July 24 and was predicted to impact Hawaii as a tropical storm. However, Daniel weakened rapidly to a tropical depression on July 25 and the CPHC issued its last advisory on July 26 while the storm was still well to the east of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Emilia
A tropical depression formed on July 21 from an area of disturbed weather 380 miles (610 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, and became Tropical Storm Emilia on July 22. Tropical storm watches were issued on the Mexican coast soon afterwards due to uncertainties in its track, but were discontinued after the storm turned northwestwards away from the coast. Emilia was expected to peak as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on July 24 or July 25, but due to hostile conditions it did not gain hurricane strength.

Typhoon Kaemi (Glenda)
A tropical depression formed on July 18 near the Caroline Islands, it quickly strengthened to tropical storm strength the same day. On July 19, the storm was named Kaemi. The name was submitted by South Korea and is a Korean word for ant. It strengthened into a severe tropical storm on July 20, and further deepened into a typhoon 24 hours later. Kaemi made landfall in Fujian at 3:50pm LST on July 25 as a minimal typhoon.
Typhoon Glenda was supposedly named "Gloria" but was changed by PAGASA out of protocol respect to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Glenda's entry to Philippines coincided with Arroyo's State of the Nation Address and was poked fun by protesters.

Lastest Storm Information
As of 0300 UTC July 25, Typhoon Kaemi (Glenda) was located 70 nm (400 km) northwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan. It had maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 km/h, 75 mph), according to the JTWC. The RSMC for the region, RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, reported sustained winds of 60 kt (110 km/h, 70 mph), with a minimum pressure of 980 hPa. The storm was reported to be moving northwest at 14 kt (26 km/h, 16 mph). This is the last report by th Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

According to RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, as of 1800 UTC July 25 Tropical Storm Kaemi (Glenda) had sustained winds of 45 kt (80 km/h, 50 mph), with a minimum pressure of 990 hPa. The storm was moving west at 9 kt (16 km/h, 10 mph).


Fires North of Russia's Lake Baikal
Forest fires were burning across a broad swath of the Central Siberian Plateau on July 24, 2006, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead and captured this image. Places where the sensor detected actively burning fires are marked in red. A shroud of smoke spreads over thousands of square kilometers of Russia. In the center of the image, the smoke has a brownish tinge. The city of Ust’-Ilimsk, normally visible as a tan spot along the Angara River, is completely hidden by smoke.
The scene spans the plateau from Russia’s Irkutsk region in the south to the Arctic Ocean in the north. Lake Baikal would be just outside the lower right corner of the scene. This comparison might be helpful in understanding the scale of the event: if the above image covered the United States, the scene would stretch from California to the New Mexico-Texas state line, and it would reach more than a hundred miles both north and south of the borders of the United States.



Figure 2: Forest Fires In Russia


Figure 3: Hurricane Daniel at Peak Intensity of 150mph/933mbar

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Beryl

By: Weather456, 3:23 PM GMT on July 18, 2006

Tropical Update/Wind Shear
The tropics are stirring today, as recently born Tropical Storm Beryl and Hurricane Danielle in the Eastern Pacific.

Tropical Storm Beryl
A cold front moved off the East Coast of the United States in mid-July and dissipated while stalled across the western Atlantic Ocean. Two areas of low pressure developed along the dissipating front; one centered 290 miles south-southeast of Cape Cod and another located 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The first low quickly organized, though the National Hurricane Center considered development unlikely due to it moving over colder waters. The other area of low pressure initially remained broad and ill-defined. However, the system rapidly organized early on July 18 with improved banding features, and the area developed into Tropical Depression Two while located 220 miles (355 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. The depression quickly organized as it moved slowly to the north-northwest, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl six hours after forming.

The low-level circulation became exposed with limited deep convection on the night of July 18, though deep convection developed the following morning. Beryl maintained its northward motion due to a ridge of high pressure to its east as the storm developed deep convection and outflow improved. Warm waters allowed the storm to reach peak winds of 60 mph late on July 19 while located east of the North Carolina/Virginia state border.

Tropical Storm Beryl maintained that intensity as it parelelled the Mid-Atlantic and New Jersey, but weakened due to cooler waters on July 20.

Early on the morning of July 21, the storm made landfall on the island of Nantucket, and soon became extratropical.

Hurricane Daniel
On July 16, a tropical disturbance formed far to the south of Baja California and quickly increased in convective activity and organization. The NHC designated it as a tropical depression that night (July 17 UTC). The depression continued to organize and was designated as a tropical storm the next day. The storm continued to intensify and was declared a hurricane on July 18. Early on July 20 (UTC), Hurricane Daniel was then upgraded to major hurricane status (Category 3) and was later upgraded to Category 4 status. After several repeated eyewall replacement cycles, Daniel later became an annular hurricane, allowing it to maintain category 4 status for longer than it otherwise would have. It has begun to weaken and is currently a category 2 hurricane. Current track forecasts have it heading towards Hawaii, although it will have weakened considerably by that time.

Current Storm Information
As of 2 a.m. PDT on July 24 (0900 UTC), Hurricane Daniel was located near 16.1°N, 139.8°W. It had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h), with higher gusts. The storm was moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph (24 km/h). The minimum central pressure was 975 mbar (28.79 inHg). The storm is now forecast to continue westward and gradually weaken over the next five days as wind shear increases and it moves over cooler waters. A landfall in Hawaii as a tropical storm is possible on Friday of this week.

Tropical Storm Emilia
A tropical depression formed on July 21 from an area of disturbed weather 380 miles (610 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, and became Tropical Storm Emilia on July 22. Tropical storm watches were issued on the Mexican coast soon afterwards due to uncertainties in its track, but were discontinued after the storm turned northwestwards away from the coast.

Current Storm Information
As of 2 a.m. PDT on July 24 (0900 UTC), Tropical Storm Emilia was located near 18.4°N, 109.7°W. It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts. The storm was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h). The minimum central pressure was 991 mbar (29.26 inHg). Over the next five days, Emilia is forecast to move between northwest and west-northwest, gradually moving away from the western coast of Mexico. It is expected to peak as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Monday before weakening later in the week. 2 to 3 inches of rain, with up to 6 inches in mountainous regions, is expected in the area between Punta San Telmo and Cabo Corrientes.

Typhoon Kaemi (Glenda)
A tropical depression formed on July 18 near the Caroline Islands, it quickly strengthened to tropical storm strength the same day. On July 19, the storm was named Kaemi. The name was submitted by South Korea and is a Korean word for ant. It strengthened into a severe tropical storm on July 20.

Current Storm Information
As of 0300 UTC July 24, Typhoon Kaemi (Glenda) was located 215nm (400 km) east-southeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan. It had maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 km/h, 75 mph), according to the JTWC. The RSMC for the region, RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, reported sustained winds of 80 kt (150 km/h, 92 mph), with a minimum pressure of 955 hPa. The storm was reported to be moving north-northwest at 7 kt (12 km/h, 8 mph).

Wind Shear Issue:
Large, massive areas of low wind shear are showing up in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, a sign that the peak of the season is near.

Elsewhere In The Tropics
The tropics will have to be watch for the next two weeks as, wind shear has decrease and still is decreasing at a face pace, also sea surface temperatures are very warm.

98L Invest
An area of Tropical Disturbance formed in the Bay of Campeche this morning. More is discuss in the Tropical Weather Outlook

That disturbance later became 98L.


Figure 1: Models Track for 98L


Figure 2: Tropical Cyclone Formation


Figure 3: Tropics Today

Today’s Question:What was the most aesthetically pleasing storm of all-time?


Figure 4: Tropical Storm Beryl Visible Satellite on July 19 Near Peak Intensity.


Figure 5: Hurricane Daniel near Peak Intensity on July 20, 2006


Figure 6: Tropical Storm Emilia


Figure 7: Typhoon Kaemi

Sexy Weather: Clouds

By: Weather456, 1:12 PM GMT on July 17, 2006

Tropics Today:
A tropical wave located 23W/24W, south of 16N, and moving west at 10-15knots has strong clusters of showers, just off the coast of Africa. Future of this storms is uncertain due large area of dust infront of it and wind shear.

A tropical wave over the open Atlantic is near 55 west, south of 22 north. This wave is moving westward at about 20 mph and will begin to impact the Lesser Antilles with some squally weather as early as Monday morning. While development is not immediately anticipated, this wave will need to be watched.

There is another tropical wave in the Caribbean along 74 west, south of 18 north. It continues to cause thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Jamaica. It is moving to the west at about 10-15 mph. No immediate development is expected, but thunderstorms may increase over the western Caribbean Sunday night and Monday.

Last, but not least, an area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast will move very slowly over the next day or so. This system will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and may begin to show tropical characteristics as it moves slowly northward over the next couple of days.


Figure 1: Tropical Atlantic Monday


Figure 2: Water Vapour Image of Tropical Atlantic

Tropical Storm Daniel
On July 16, a tropical disturbance formed far to the south of Baja California and quickly increased in convective activity and organization. The NHC designated it as a tropical depression that night (July 17 UTC). The depression continued to organize and was designated as a tropical storm later that day.

Current Storm Information
As of 2 p.m. PDT on July 17 (1500 UTC), Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 12.4°N, 112.8°W. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h), with higher gusts. The storm was moving toward the west at about 12 mph (18 km/h). The minimum central pressure was 1002 mbar (29.58 inHg). The storm is forecast to continue westward and intensify into a hurricane within the next 48 hours. NHC forecasters note that there is the possibility of rapid intensification similar to Hurricane Bud a week earlier.


Image 1: TS Daniel at 12:30EDT on July 17, 2006

Tropical Update: 9PM EDT, July 17, 2006
There is an area of concern between the Southeast coast and Bermuda. There are thunderstorms clustered along a stationary front in this area, and there is an upper-level low over the region as well. The computer models suggest that low pressure forming in this area could acquire tropical characteristics over the next few days. The waters are easily warm enough to support development in this area, and there is not too much wind shear. So, this is an area to watch carefully.

There is a tropical wave in the western Caribbean and over Central America that stretches from around 10 north, 87 west to 24 north, 78 west. There are spotty thunderstorms along the southern part of this wave, and there appears to be a broad area of cyclonic turning in the atmosphere along and west of the southern part of the wave. While no development can occur along the wave with it over land, it could organize further once it reaches the Pacific in a day or two. The northern end of the wave will brush South Florida tomorrow and bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.

And last, if the large tropical wave mentioned in my earlier post was to persist in convection and organization, then it might be of a concern for development, but as for now it will just be watch

Sexy Weather: Clouds
Too many times we hear the bad side of weather. Every week, we hear that some kind of natural weather event - Earthquake, Volcanic Eruption, Hurricanes, Floods, etc. has caused some kind of havoc somewhere in the world. But weather has a good side that can be very “sexy” to our planet Earth. Below are some pictures with description of how good our planet can be sometimes and how we can stop and appreciate it, before disasters strikes.

Actinoform Cloud
An actinoform or actiniform cloud is a collection of clouds that takes a distinct shape. They are named after the Greek word for "ray" due to their radial structure. Actinoform clouds can spread out over 300 kilometers (187 miles) across and thus cannot be easily seen with the naked eye. In addition, actinoform clouds can form "trains" that are up to six times the length of the original cloud field, yet they maintain their own, distinct identity. In a satellite image, they look like distinct leaf-like or spokes-on-a-wheel patterns that stand out from the rest of the low-lying cloud field. However, why they have this shape or how they are formed is not known. The individual convective cells that collectively make up an actinoform cloud are quite shallow, with heights generally less than 2 km.


Figure 3: Actinoform Cloud over the Eastern Pacific Ocean

Roll Cloud


Figure 4: Roll Cloud over east coast of Mexico

Cumulonimbus Clouds

Figure 5: Large Cumulonimbus Cloud

Cirrus Clouds

Figure 6: Cirrus Clouds, viewed from plane

Love Cloud

Figure 7: Heart-shaped cloud.

Cloud Formation In Cyclones

Figure 8: Low Pressure System Over Iceland

Today’s Question: What would you describe as good weather?

Hurricane Emily: One Year Later

By: Weather456, 5:35 PM GMT on July 14, 2006

Today’s Question:
Do you feel that the 2005 Hurricane Season has to some degree ruined peoples perception of tropical activity?

Quote by Jphurricane: “Last year everything that was spotted developed within a day. I can remember many a year before last year where the NHC would have paid attention to alot more than they are this year.”

Question Requested by Jphurricane

Tropics Today
The tropics is very quiet as usually for this month. High wind shear and dry is inhibiting any kind of disturbances. Hurricane Bud has been downgraded and Carlotta is weakening.


The Question: Accuweather Vs The National Weather Services:

Thanks to all who put an input into the last question. So much comments came in for and against the bill that I haven’t had time to summarize it as yet. But I will post a blog on that and the many other questions I posted.

My Questions:
You can still make or update your July predictions and the question on Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Vs Global Warming on Hurricane Activity is still open. Also open is the question on Why was the 2005 Season more destructive that the 2004 Season even though they both had about the same number of storms making landfall. I need some more information on the three latest questions to make a comprehensive conclusion/summary so you can post what ever you know.

Hurricane Emily: One Year Later
One year ago today, Hurricane Emily of July made landfall on the small island of Grenada. Emily would soon become the earliest category 5 on record.


Hurricane Emily was the fifth named storm, third hurricane, second major hurricane and first Category 5 of the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm formed in July as a Cape Verde-type hurricane before passing through the Windward Islands, where it caused heavy damage in Grenada. Emily then made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula as a Category 4 storm, first on the island of Cozumel and then just north of Tulum on the mainland of Quintana Roo. After crossing the Bay of Campeche the hurricane made a final destructive landfall in the state of Tamaulipas in northern Mexico.
When its central pressure fell to 929 mbar and its sustained winds reached to 160 mph (260 km/h) on July 16, Emily became the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, breaking a record set by Hurricane Dennis just six days before. It was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (beating Hurricane Allen's old record by nearly three weeks) and the only Category 5 hurricane ever recorded before August.

To the right is an image of Hurricane Emily near peak intensity.



Figure 2: Hurricane Emily's History

AccuWeather Vs The National Weather Service: Part 2

By: Weather456, 11:38 PM GMT on July 10, 2006

AccuWeather Vs The National Weather Service: Part 2
The last question I posted on Independence Day dealt with commercial weather companies such as the AccuWeather criticizing one of the best services in the country- The National Weather Service about forecasting methods and free weather availability to the public. Today I want to deal with the National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005.

National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005
AccuWeather has been a vocal critic of the National Weather Service, a part of the U.S. government's NOAA, in that it provides free weather forecasting services to the general public. They argue that the government competes with them directly and unfairly, and on April 14, 2005 senator Rick Santorum introduced the "National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005" to the U.S. Senate that would prohibit the NWS from providing products or services the private sector is willing and able to provide (S. 786). The bill is currently pending.
Question: Does AccuWeather have a valid point and should the bill be pass by the US Senate?


Figure 1: My Logo of the debate between AccuWeather and the NWS


My Questions:
You can still make or update your July predictions and the question on Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Vs Global Warming on Hurricane Activity is still open. Also open is the question on Why was the 2005 Season more destructive that the 2004 Season even though they both had about the same number of storms making landfall. I need some more information on the two latest question to make a comprehensive conclusion/summary so you can post what ever you know.


Hurricane Dennis: One Year Later
One year ago this week, one of the most powerful hurricane in history was churning its way towards the Gulf Coast States.

Hurricane Dennis was an early-forming major hurricane in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Dennis was the fourth named storm, second hurricane, and first major hurricane of the season. In July, the hurricane set several records for early season hurricane activity, becoming both the earliest formation of a fourth tropical cyclone and the strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever to form before August, according to available records until Hurricane Emily, weeks later.
Dennis hit Cuba twice as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and made landfall on the Florida Panhandle in the United States as a Category 3 storm less than a year after Hurricane Ivan did so. Dennis caused at least 89 deaths (42 direct) in the U.S. and Caribbean and caused $2.23 billion (2005 US dollars) in damages to the United States, as well as an approximately equal amount of damage in the Caribbean, primarily on Cuba. The name Dennis was retired and replace with Don in the 2011 Hurricane Season.

To the left is an image of Hurricane Dennis near peak intensity.


Figure 3: History of Hurricane Dennis (July 2005)


Tropical Update....7pm July 12

The Eastern Pacific has warmed up today. July 11, 2006 was the most active day since May 15 or June 1, with an active tropical storm (Bud) and a tropical depression (Four) forming on that day.

Early this morning TD 04E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlotta.

Currently Bud has winds of 105mph, further strengthening is anticipated and then Bud is expected to weaken back to tropical storm strength. Carlotta is strengthening and is forecasted to become a minimal hurricane. Both are not expected to hit land. Winds in Carlotta are clocked at 55mph.

96E in the Atlantic blossomed this morning but the thunderstorms have died down this evening. There is a possibility that the thunderstorms can re-blossomed tonight. It is forecasted to moved into the South East Caribbean Sea where wind shear is very high.

Severe Tropical Storm Bellis is moving towards Taiwan and China as we speak with winds of 45mph.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected.


Figure 4: Hurricane Bud


Figure 5: TS Carlotta

Tropical Update....July 13, 2006 9AM
All three tropical systems mentioned last night strengthened. Bud is now a Major Hurricane with winds of 125mph. Carlotta now is a Hurricane with winds of 85mph. Bellis in the Western Pacifc has winds now at 65mph.

Tropical Update....Tropical Wave Off Africa....July 13 1PM EDT
A tropical wave located north of 10N, 25W has moved off Africa 6-12 hours ago...The wave is well-defined and is moving west at 15-20 knots low-mid level cyclonic turning is clearly evident on visible satellite imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 NM either side of the wave axis.


Figure 6: Tropical Wave Off The African Coast

Tropical Update....Tropical Wave Off Africa 3:30pm EDT
The tropical wave mentioned earlier is getting better organize...Infrared and Visible animations through 3PM EDT, suggest that there is turning in the low layers of the atmosphere. Convection is build up on all sides of the system and near the center, located 13.0N, 26.5W based on satellite imagery. The Us Naval based would likely name it 97L..if systems located in the Gulf do not get named first.
The NHC will likely mentioned it in their 5PM EDT tropical outlook.

Tropical Update....7pm EDT July 13, 2006
The NHC has not mentioned the African Wave in their 5PM EDT outlook and no 97L has been assign yet. Convection around the wave have diminished this evening, probally beacause of lack of day time heating. Convection may reappear overnight into tomorrow. 96L is moving through the Caribbean with moderate to strong convection accompaning it. It will have to watch has it moves into the north west Caribbean Sea over the weekend.
Hurricane Bud has weekened and is no longer a major Hurricane. It has winds of 110mph and should continue to weaken. Hurricane Carlotta, on the otherhand is strengthening and now has winds of 85mph.
Severe Tropical Storm Bellis is taking aim on China, after crossing northern Taiwan, with winds of 65mph.

Tropical Update....12PM EDT July 14, 2006
Bellis has made landfall in China and should continue to weaken inland. Bud is no longer a hurricane and Carlotta is weakening. Bud has winds of 65mph and Carlotta has winds of 75mph. The Atlantic basin is quiet and the tropical wave located off the Cape Verde Islands has diminish in showers and thunderstorms.

AMO Vs Global Warming

By: Weather456, 12:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2006

Cyclone Catarina was an extremely rare South Atlantic tropical cyclone. Catarina hit southeastern Brazil in late March of 2004, and though not the first southern Atlantic tropical cyclone, it was the first positively identified hurricane-strength system in the basin. The storm killed at least 3 people and caused an estimated $350 million (2004 US dollars, $359.45 million 2005 USD) in damages.



On March 12 a cold-core stationary upper-level trough became established offshore southern Brazil. A disturbance formed along it on the 19th, and moved east-southeastward until the 22nd, when a ridge to its southeast kept it stationary. With exceptionally unusual favorable upper level winds and above average if marginally warm water temperatures from 24 to 26 °C (75 to 79 °F), it gradually developed, resembling a subtropical storm by the 24th. Located 630 statute miles (1010 km) east-southeast of Florianópolis, it headed slowly westward, and appeared to become a tropical storm on the 25th.
A compact storm, it continued westward while steadily intensifying, reaching hurricane strength on the 26th. A Brazilian newspaper indicated a "Furacao (hurricane) threatening Catarina (the Brazilian state)". Partly because of this, the storm had unofficially been named Catarina due to the headline. Catarina continued to encounter favorable conditions, and reached a peak of 100 mph (160 km/h) estimated sustained winds on the 28th,[1] which made the storm a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Gusts peaked at around 110 mph (180 km/h). The cyclone made landfall at that intensity, hitting just north of the town of Torres (northeast of the extreme southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul). Catarina rapidly dissipated over land in the normal manner that tropical cyclones do.

Brazilian meteorologists named the storm Catarina for its proximity to (and eventual landfall at) the state of Santa Catarina, although government forecasters initially denied that the storm, which clearly had an open eye and various other tropical morphologies, was a hurricane at all.
North American forecasters, however, surprised as they were, considered this a hurricane immediately upon the satellite-derived evidence. Since it had clear eyewall structure bounded by deep convective central dense overcast, well-defined spiral outer bands and outflow structure, warm water temperatures (79 °F {26 °C}), little shear, a warm core low, and overall tropical characteristics, it was considered a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center in the United States.[2]
Though it is most commonly known as Catarina, all names for this storm are "unofficial", in that no World Meteorological Organization-affiliated meteorological agency that monitors hurricanes named it. (Tropical cyclone names are predetermined by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization.)[3] It has also been called "Aldonça", and the advisory names for it were "01T-ALPHA" from the United Kingdom's Met Office, and "50L-NONAME" from the United States' National Hurricane Center, which keeps it well outside normal designation, which start at 1L for named storms and use 90L to 99L for possible storms.
There is also no official naming convention for the meteorological term of tropical cyclones with winds of at least 74 mph (119 km/h) (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, cyclone) in the South Atlantic basin; however, because it was in the Southern Hemisphere, it is typically considered Cyclone Catarina, the predominant term for Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones.

Typically, tropical cyclones don't form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper level shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of a convergence zone of convection. Occasionally though, as seen in 1991 and early 2004, conditions can become slightly more favorable. For Catarina, it was a combination of climatic and atmospheric anomalies. Water temperatures on Catarina's path ranged from 24-25º Celsius, slightly less than the 26.5º temperature of a normal tropical cyclone, but sufficient for a storm of baroclinic origin.

Like normal tropical cyclones, Catarina brought heavy flooding with it. Because Brazilian government meteorologists refused to acknowledge the tropical characteristics and potency of Catarina, many people did not take shelter, increasing the threat for damage. In the end, the storm damaged around 40,000 homes and destroyed 1500; 85% of the banana crop and 40% of the rice crop were lost; total damages were estimated at $350 million (2004 USD, $359.45 million 2005 USD). It also killed at least three and injured at least 75.

AMO Vs Global Warming On Hurricane Activity
From since the start of 1995 upon until the present there has been increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic and rare formations as seen above for Cyclone Catarina. There are currently to theories to explain the increase activity. There is the theory of Global Warming and NOAA’s explanation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

In your opinion, which is the more likely cause of increase hurricane activity. You can also give reasons why.

Explanation to the question I posted on July 5th about the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons is a bit lengthy and will be posted in a separate blog entry.

Super Typhoon Ewiniar (Ester)
Current Information
As of 0300 UTC July 8, Typhoon Ewiniar was located about 190 nautical miles (350 km) south-southwest of Naha, Okinawa, moving north-northwest at 6 knots According to the JTWC, it had 1-minute sustained winds of 85 knots (160 km/h) while the official RSMC, at 2200 UTC RSMC Tokyo, reported that the 10-minute mean sustained winds was 80 knots (150 km/h).

Tropical Depression 05W also formed early this morning Eastern Time.


Figure 2: Western Pacifc Tropics

Severe Weather Watch

Figure 3: Severe Weather Outlook


Figure 4: Lastest Surface Analysis


Figure 5: Storm Watch-Florida

How Weather Affects Us: Heat

By: Weather456, 12:11 PM GMT on July 05, 2006

How Hot Weather Affects Us
Warm summer breezes can be very relaxing and enjoyable. But summer brings along very hot weather that can make us tired, uncomfortable and even sick. The body maintains its temperature in a normal range during hot weather by sweating, which cools the skin, adjusting breathing and shifting the flow of blood between the skin and the internal organs. If the temperature hovers at 90degrees or above for several days and the humidity is high, your body may have trouble cooling itself properly. You may suffer from heat exhaustion or even life threatening heat stroke.



Heat Stroke
Life-threatening heat stroke may follow heat exhaustion or come without warning. Symptoms heat stroke include:
-Persons complaining of “burning up”
-Sweating may decrease
-Skin becomes hot and dry
-Throbbing headaches
-Dizziness
-Body temperature rises to 104 degrees or higher
-Chest pain
-Rapid breathing
-Exhaustion
-Rapid heartbeat
-Nausea, vomiting and diarrhea
-Severe muscle cramps
-Mental changes such as confusion
-Convulsions
-Unconsciousness



Heat stroke can cause permanent damage to the internal organs, including the brain and is considered a medical emergency. Call 911 for medical help. The high body temperature does the damage to the body and if medical help is not immediately available the person should be wrapped in wet sheets and submersed in a cool stream or a bathtub of cool water. In the hospital, measures are taken to restore the body temperature to normal and to control other problems with medications. Once the crisis is over the person should rest in bed for a few days since the body temperature may rise and fall for a while.

Watch for Early Warning Signals
Your body sends out warning signals when it is struggling with the heat. Don’t ignore them! Physical or mental changes are your body’s warning signals.


Heat Exhaustion
Major signs are fatigue; weakness; drenching sweat; cold, pale, clammy skin; and fainting. These symptoms are caused by the pooling of blood in the legs and the loss of fluid and salt through sweating. To redistribute the blood, the person should move to a cool area and lie flat with the head a little lower than the rest of the body. To replace the fluids and salt, the person should sip slightly salted beverages such as tomato juice or cool bouillon. Avoid salt tablets.

Keep Cool This Summer!
The best precaution against heat related illnesses is to remain indoors in a cool place. If your home is not cool enough, you might want to go to a senior center, the Stamford Town Center, the Ferguson library, a swimming pool or an air-conditioned public area. Set up a buddy system with a friend, neighbor or family member. Check on each other during long stretches of very hot weather.

Use Fans
Fans can be used to exhaust hot air from your home, draw cool air into your home, or help provide good indoor air circulation during the day. Air movement reduces heat stress by helping to remove extra body heat.

Cool Clothes
Choose light-weight, loose fitting, light colored cotton clothing. Avoid polyesters or other synthetic materials; they can make you hotter.

Slow Down
Take it easy, especially at the start of a hot day when your body is less prepared for the heat. Physical activity adds to the hearts workload.

Baths and Showers
Cool baths and showers provide amazing relief from the heat. Cool water removes excess body heat 25 times faster than cool air. If you don’t have time for a bath or a shower, run cool water over your wrists for a few minutes or place a cool washcloth on your forehead or the back of your neck.

Watch What You Eat And Drink.

Eat light, cool, nutritious meals—salads, cold meats, and fruit. Avoid hot foods and heavy
meals such as stews and soups. They add heat to your body. If you must cook, do so during the coolest part of the day. Drink lots of water. In hot weather your body needs more water. If you wait until you’re thirsty, you have waited too long. Drink often, at least 8 glasses of water a day. If you have a medical condition with body water imbalance,
check with your doctor for advice on how much water you should drink in hot weather.
Avoid extra salt. Check with your doctor before you increase the amount of salt or potassium in your diet.
Avoid alcohol because it interferes with your body’s fight against heat stress
and strains your heart. Avoid caffeinated drinks. Caffeine promotes the loss of precious body fluids. This interferes with your body’s attempt to cool itself down. If you can’t keep cool enough at home in the hot weather, make arrangements to stay with a friend or family until it’s cooler.

Information is provided by Stamford Health and Social Services Department.


Typhoon Ewiniar (Ester)
On June 29, a persistent tropical disturbance was classified as a tropical depression by the JTWC while east of Palau. The depression moved northwestward and was upgraded to Tropical Storm 04W by the JTWC on June 30. The JMA designated the storm Tropical Storm Ewiniar at around the same time. The name Ewiniar was submitted by the Federated States of Micronesia, and refers to a traditional storm god of Chuuk.

Current Storm Information
As of 0600 UTC July 5, Typhoon Ewiniar was located about 500 nautical miles (925 km) south-southeast of Naha, Okinawa, moving north-northwest at 7 knots. According to the JTWC, it was packing 1-minute sustained winds of 125 knots (230 km/h) while the official RSMC, RSMC Tokyo, reported that the 10-minute mean sustained winds was 100 knots (185 km/h).


Figure 3: Typhoon Ewiniar at 7:12pm EDT on July 4th, 2006.

Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.

The Question I posted on July 4, 2006 about Accuweather and The National Weather Service got some interesting responses, and thanks all who responded. Both the National Weather Service and Accuweather are great weather companies but there is friction between the two about free weather data availability to the public as one company criticized the other of giving free weather data to the public. Doesn’t the public has a right to free weather information? The two company should come to an agreement and work as one head to provide free weather information to the public….weather affects all of us in many ways possible. But on the other hand, the services provided by buoys, weather stations, etc. have to be paid for. There is no possible conclusion to this debate but with websites like Weather Underground, Weathercore, The Weather Channel, StormJunkie, etc. we don’t have much to worry about.

Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service

By: Weather456, 12:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2006

Happy Independence to All!

Natural Hazards
Here is a comprehensive list of natural disasters that can occur, or has occurred in the history of Earth.

Avalanche
An avalanche is a geophysical hazard involving a slide of a large snow (or rock) mass down a mountainside, caused when a buildup of snow is released down a slope, it is one of the major dangers faced in the mountains in winter. An avalanche is an example of a gravity current consisting of granular material. In an avalanche, lots of material or mixtures of different types of material fall or slide rapidly under the force of gravity.

Floods
Floods are often classified by what they are made prolonged rainfall from a storm, including thunderstorms, rapid melting of large amounts of snow, or rivers which swell from excess precipitation upstream and cause widespread damage to areas downstream, or less frequently the bursting of man-made dams or levees. A river which floods particularly often is the Huang He in China, and a particularly damaging flood was the Great Flood of 1931.



Hailstorm
A hailstorm is a natural disaster where a thunderstorm produces numerous hailstones which damage the location in which they fall. Hailstorms can be especially devastating to farm fields, ruining crops and damaging equipment. A particularly damaging hailstorm hit Munich, Germany on August 31, 1986, felling thousands of trees and causing millions of dollars in insurance claims.

Heat Wave
A heat wave is a disaster characterized by heat which is considered extreme and unusual in the area in which it occurs. Heat waves are rare and require specific combinations of weather events to take place, and may include temperature inversions, katabatic winds, or other phenomena. The worst heat wave in recent history was the European Heat Wave of 2003.

Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Typhoons
Hurricane, tropical cyclone, and typhoon are different names for the same phenomenon: a cyclonic storm system that forms over the oceans. It is caused by evaporated water that comes off of the ocean and becomes a storm. The Coriolis Effect causes the storms to spin, and a hurricane is declared when this spinning mass of storms attains a wind speed greater than 74 mph. Hurricane is used for these phenomena in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone in the Indian, typhoon in the eastern Pacific. The deadliest hurricane ever was the 1970 Bhola cyclone; the deadliest Atlantic hurricane was the Great Hurricane of 1780, which devastated Martinique, St. Eustatius and Barbados. Another notable hurricane is Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the Gulf Coast of the United States in 2005.

Ice Storm
An ice storm is a particular weather event in which precipitation falls as ice, due to atmosphere conditions

Lahar
A Lahar is a type of natural disaster closely related to a volcanic eruption, and involves a large amount of material, including mud, rock, and ash sliding down the side of the volcano at a rapid pace. These flows can destroy entire towns in seconds and kill thousands of people. The Tangiwai disaster is an excellent example, as is the one which killed an estimated 23,000 people in Armero, Colombia, during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz.

Landslides and Mudslides
A landslide is a disaster closely related to an avalanche, but instead of occurring with snow, it occurs involving actual elements of the ground, including rocks, trees, parts of houses, and anything else which may happen to be swept up. Landslides can be caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or general instability in the surrounding land. Mudslides, or mud flows, are a special case of landslides, in which heavy rainfall causes loose soil on steep terrain to collapse and slide downwards (see also Lahar); these occur with some regularity in parts of California after periods of heavy rain.

Sinkholes
A localized depression in the surface topography, usually caused by the collapse of a subterranean structure, such as a cave. Although rare, large sinkholes that develop suddenly in populated areas can lead to the collapse of buildings and other structures.

Tornado
A tornado is a natural disaster resulting from a thunderstorm. Tornadoes are violent, rotating columns of air which can blow at speeds between 50 and 300 mph, and possibly higher. Tornadoes can occur one at a time, or can occur in large tornado outbreaks along squall lines or in other large areas of thunderstorm development.

Tsunami
A tsunami is a giant wave of water which rolls into the shore of an area with a height of over 15 m (50 ft). It comes from Japanese words "tsu" meaning wave and "nami" meaning habour. Tsunami can be caused by undersea earthquakes as in the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake, or by landslides such as the one which occurred at Lituya Bay, Alaska. The tsunami generated by the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake currently ranks as the deadliest tsunami in recorded history. The highest Tsunami ever recorded was estimated to be 85m (278 ft.) high. It appeared on April 24th, 1771, off Ishigaki Island, Japan.


Ice age

An ice age is a geologic period, but could also be viewed in the light of a catastrophic natural disaster, since in an ice age, the climate all over the world would change and places which were once considered habitable would then be too cold to permanently inhabit. A side effect of an ice age could possibly be a famine, caused by a worldwide drought.

Impact Event
An impact event is a natural disaster in which an extraterrestrial piece of rock or other material collides with the Earth. The exact consequences of a direct Earth impact would vary greatly with size of the colliding object, although in cases of medium to large impacts short-term climate change and a general failure of agriculture. An example would be the Tunguska event.


Solar Flare

A solar flare is a phenomenon where the sun suddenly releases a great amount of solar radiation, much more than normal. It is theorized that these releases of radiation could cause a widespread failure of communications technology across the globe. The exact implications of such a failure are unknown. Further studies are being carried out.

Supervolcano
A supervolcano is an eruption which is thousands of times more massive than a normal eruption. If a volcano expels at least 1000 cubic kilometers of material, it is declared a supervolcano. The last eruption of this magnitude occurred over 75,000 years ago at Lake Toba. If such an eruption were to occur today, a wholesale general die-off of both animals and humans would occur, as well as a significant short-term climate change.


Megatsunami

Megatsunami is a term used by the popular media to describe very large tsunamis. They are a highly local effect, either occurring on shores extremely close to the origin of a tsunami, or in deep, narrow inlets. The largest waves are caused by a very large landslide, such as a collapsing island, into a body of water. They can potentially reach 20 km inland in low-lying regions.

Wildfire

A wildfire consists of a fire that burns out in the wild. This is generally caused by lightning and drought but also may be started by human negligence and arson. They can be a threat to those in rural areas and also wildlife.

Flash Flood
A flash flood is a rapid flooding of low-lying areas, rivers and streams, that is caused by the intense rainfall associated with a thunderstorm, or multiple training thunderstorms. Flash floods can also occur when ice jams block the normal course of a river, and when a man-made structure such as a dam collapses, as happened in the Johnstown Flood of 1889. Flash flooding occurs when the ground becomes saturated with water that fell so quickly that it could not be absorbed. The runoff collects in low-lying areas and rapidly flows downhill, threatening anything in it its path with suddenly rising water. Flash floods most often occur in normally dry areas that have recently received precipitation, but may also be seen anywhere downstream from the source of the precipitation (even dozens of miles from the source).


Figure 2: Artist's impression of a major impact event between Earth and an Asteroid.


Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service and The National Hurricane Center.
“Joe Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for being too conservative in its forecasts.”

This was an extract from a biography of Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on Wikipedia, the
Free Encyclopedia.
Question: In your opinion, do you think Joe Bastardi has a point with this statement.

You can leave comments on why?

July Predictions.
Comments on the July Predictions from the post on Saturday, will be review at the end of the month, when all is said and done. Hope your forecast makes its! You can also post updates to your comments as the month progress but not after July 15, 2006.

You can also check some websites of choice:
Weathercore
Stormjunkie.com

July Predictions

By: Weather456, 7:40 PM GMT on July 01, 2006

A thunderstorm, or an electrical storm, is a form of weather characterized by the presence of lightning and its attendant thunder. It is usually accompanied by copious rainfall, hail, or rarely, snowfall in the winter months, sometimes termed thundersnow.

Thunderstorms occur throughout the world, even in the polar regions, with the greatest frequency in tropical rainforest areas, where they may occur nearly daily. Kampala and Tororo in Uganda have each been mentioned as the most thunderous places on Earth, an accolade which has also been bestowed upon Bogor on Java, Indonesia. In temperate regions, they are most frequent in spring and summer, though can occur in cold fronts at any time of year. Probably the most thunderous region outside of the Tropics is Florida. During the summer, violent thunderstorms are an almost daily occurrence over central and southern parts of the state. The most powerful and dangerous severe thunderstorms also occur over the USA, particularly in the Midwest and the southern States. These storms can produce very large hail and powerful tornadoes. Thunderstorms are rare along the West Coast of the United States, though they do occur more frequently in inland areas.

Thunderstorms form when significant condensation—resulting in the production of a wide range of water droplets and ice crystals—occurs in an atmosphere that is unstable and supports deep, rapid upward motion. This often occurs in the presence of three conditions: sufficient moisture accumulated in the lower atmosphere, reflected by high dewpoint temperatures; a significant fall in air temperature with increasing height, known as a steep adiabatic lapse rate; and a force such as mechanical convergence along a cold front to focus the lift.

Thunderstorms have had a lasting and powerful influence on early civilizations. Romans thought them to be battles waged by Jupiter, who hurled lightning bolts forged by Vulcan. Thunderstorms were associated with the Thunderbirds, held by Native Americans to be a servant of the Great Spirit. In more contemporary times, thunderstorms now have taken on the role of a curiosity. Every spring, storm chasers head to the Great Plains of the United States and the Canadian Prairies to explore the visual and scientific aspects of storms and tornadoes.

There are four main types of thunderstorms: single cell, multicell, squall line (also called multicell line) and supercell. Which type forms depends on the instability and relative wind conditions at different layers of the atmosphere ("wind shear"). More on Thunderstorms

Figure 1: Anvil Shape Thundercloud


Figure 2: Lightning In Arlington.

July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?

You can give reasons for your answers.

Some people responded to the question on hurricane names. Most thought it was a great idea to introduce the letters Q, U, X, Y, Z into the naming scheme. It's not difficult to get the names for those letters that are short and easy to pronounce, they only need six names for the six rotating years; but as time goes on, and hurricane activity increases, they might one day introduce the names.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

About Weather456

With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.