Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

What Are Your Tropics Predictions For September?

By: Weather456, 8:53 PM GMT on August 30, 2006

Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............
Wednesday, August 30, 2006..........


An Upper Level trough is moving west over Northern Canada bringing both wet moisture to the south of it and snow to the north of it.

The Upper Level High that was centered over the Continental United States for some time now, no longer sits inland and is now centered east of Georgia in Atlantic Ocean. A broad Upper Level ridge extends into the Atlantic towards the vivacity of Bermuda.
Replacing the High is an Upper level polar trough, extending down from the Jet Stream over Canada, into the Midwest and down to the South-East United States. This trough will be responsible for steering Ernesto east and north (see Below). At the heart of the trough is an Upper Level Low spinning over Wisconsin.

This trough is also associated with a cold front that extends from Texas into the South East United States, north into Virginia, out into the Atlantic, South of Nova Scotia, where it meets an Extratropical Low, progressing north with a Warm Front. Behind the front is surface High centered over Texas.

The Upper level low that was racing with Ernesto south of Cuba, late last week has moved north west from the Yucatan Peninsula and racing towards Texas. The Low is enhancing moisture over regions of the Gulf Of Mexico and will do the same when it reaches Texas.

A surface High is located over Mexico, this High will help steer Hurricane John north allowing John to graze the West Mexican Coast.

Tropical Depression Ernesto is moving north over the Florida Peninsula, numerous moderate to strong convection will spread across the Peninsula today, then Georgia and the East Coast. Ernesto will continue to move north, then east due to a progress trough coming down over the Continental USA. The TD is packing winds of 35mph.

Surface Observations
The highest wave will be found on the Eastern Side of Florida, running as high as 10ft.

Land-Based Stations at 12:53PMEST
Punta, FL (PGD)
Pressure:1008.5mbars
Winds: NW at 6m/s

Witham, FL (SUA)
Pressure:1013.2mbars
Winds: ENE at 6m/s

West Palm Beach, FL (PBI)
Pressure:1006mbars
Winds: S at 9m/s

A Central Atlantic Upper Level Low attached to a well define Upper Level trough in the North Atlantic. This trough absorbed Debby on Monday and moved her north.

To the North of that trough is a powerful extra-tropical cyclone, moving NE in the extreme North Atlantic. Quiksat revealed a well define circulation and winds up to 50knots, and with a good satellite of the North Atlantic can be seen spinning northward.

Ahead of the Low is a cold front extending down from East of Great Britain down into the Central Atlantic, where it becomes stationary at 45W. Along the front are two weak surface lows at 35N, and 28N.

Two surface highs dominate the North Atlantic, the most define High is located, 37.5N, 23.5W at 1026mbars.

A tropical wave is located along 46W, moving west. This wave is embedded in area of thinning Saharan Dust. A 1013mbar low is located along its axis at 17N.

Another tropical wave located along 31W, moving west. This wave has excellent Upper Air divergence but convection has decrease this morning. The wave is a still a good candidate for development as it moves west.

An Upper level High is centered West of Morocco.

By Weather456.....13:32UTC......

September Predictions
You can leave your predictions on how many storms you think we will have in September.

Tropical Storm Debby and The Tropics

By: Weather456, 10:51 PM GMT on August 23, 2006

Atlantic Today Updated
The large continental Upper Level High (ULH), that was centered over the USA has broken into two centered areas, due to a 200mb polar trough. The first one is centered over Northern Texas, the other centered 30N/75W.
On the Eastern periphery of the latter high is an elongated Upper Level trough, with an weak Mid-Upper Level Low at its southern most point near the Eastern Bahamas.

The Upper Level Low that was over Central Mexico has become broad and moved into the Pacific Ocean. An Upper Level is centered south of the Florida Panhandle. These two lows are creating an easterly flow of moisture that extends from the Pacific Ocean, across Mexico into The Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico. Where the moisture meets the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, it is forced southward towards Honduras, and back into the Pacific Ocean.

A weak surface high is centered near the Florida Keys.

The Eastern Caribbean Sea is dominated by Upper Level Ridging in associated with a large Upper Level High centered in the South Central Atlantic. The NW quadrant of the ULH and some SE flow extending from the Upper Level trough near the Bahamas is generating strong wind shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and, just north and east of the Islands.

A Tropical Wave is moving into Nicaragua.

Another Tropical Wave is moving through the Eastern Caribbean Sea, with its axis located south of Puerto Rico.

A central Atlantic Tropical Wave (97) accompanied by an area of low pressure, with its axis along the ITCZ at 54W, has increased in shower activity and organization today. Some slow organization is possible as the disturbed area moves WNW, in the upcoming days.

Discussion of 97L
The Upper Air atmosphere is quite favorable for development, if the system can maintain convection through the night. Upper level Water Vapor and Upper Air Divergence are both favorable.

There is some strong Upper Level Winds north of 97L, that forecast to decrease as the ULH moves NW.

Future of 97L
If 97L will continue to move WNW into more favorable environment. Dry air decreases into the Caribbean Sea. The only problem is South America, but 97L might be north of the Continent as it moves by.


Surface Observations
Sea Surface Temperatures are above 80 degrees in the area.

Waves are 5-10 feet approaching the Windward Islands.

Buoys/Ships
A Ship heading for Venezuela , just south of the system mearure a pressure of 1012mbars with winds from the SE at 15knots

Land-Based Stations at 6PMAST
POINT, Grenada (TGPY)
Pressure:1011mbars
Winds: East at 3m/s

CROWN, Trinidad and Tobago (TTCP)
Pressure: 1012.9mbars
Winds: ESE at 4m/s

Grantley Adams, Barbados

Pressure: 1011mbars
Winds: E at 2.6m/s

A subtropical surface high is located SE of Bermuda, at 30N/57W, with surface ridging seen all the way to the SE United States.

Tropical Storm Debby is located 16.8N, 31.5W, in the open Atlantic. The tropical storm is moving WNW at 17mph. It is forecast to continue moving WNW around a ridge (associated with a stronger High in the North Atlantic) then NW as the ridge is weakened by a Central Atlantic Upper Level trough.

By Weather456

Hurricane Charley:Two Years Later

By: Weather456, 6:51 PM GMT on August 13, 2006

Hurricane Charley
Hurricane Charley formed east of the Windward Islands on August 9 and moved rapidly west across the Caribbean. As it neared Jamaica, it became a hurricane and grazed that island on August 11, passing through the Cayman Islands the next morning. On August 12, Charley passed over mainland Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane just west of Havana.

On August 13, Charley unexpectedly underwent rapid strengthening, jumping from a Category 2 to a powerful Category 4 storm in a few hours, while at the same time taking a sharp turn to the northeast. Charley made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Port Charlotte, Florida. Although the storm caused serious damage, much of this was limited to a narrow swath associated with the hurricane's eye wall. Charley was a very fast-moving, compact storm, and so much of its damage was attributed to high winds rather than heavy rain, as is the case in most hurricanes. Charley remained a hurricane across the entire Florida peninsula and passed near Orlando and Daytona Beach. It later made a second landfall near North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on August 14. Charley dissipated near Cape Cod, Massachusetts on August 15.

Charley caused approximately $14 billion in damage to the United States, making it the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Fifteen deaths were directly attributed to Charley; four in Jamaica, one in Cuba, and ten in Florida.



Tropics Today

Tropical Waves
A tropical wave locate along 22W, south of 19N, near the African coastline, moving west at 10-17mph, has a well define mid-low level circulation most evident around 700mb. The wave is embedded in an area of high atmospheric instability brought about by a quasi-stationary monsoonal trough over Northern Africa ( most likely due to the relative position near India). This instability extends south of 10N, and extends into the ITCZ at around 40W. The wave has lost its deep convective thunderstorms overnight, so development, if any should be slow, until it regain it.

Wind Shear values along the African coast run from 0.3knots to 11knots in some places. It increases to 25-30knotts south of 10N.

This area in the Eastern Atlantic, is more than favorable, and any present or future wave will have to be watch for development.

A tropical wave, now affecting the Windward Islands, now located between Barbados, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent, is moving west at 15mph. The wave has a well define inverted V (upside down V) curvature evident on satellite imagery, which suggest the wave has divergence and convergence. There is 1011mbar low a-level circulation associated with the wave, but its to the east of the intense thunderstorms, north of 13N.

Wind Shear values over the wave has decrease to0-10knots, this is reflected in early morning visible shots, which show no signs of shearing.

The wave is embedded in a dry air environment limiting any significant organization of the thunderstorms.

Another Tropical Wave located in the Caribbean Sea, but its moving on the western edge of an upper level low, no development expected there.

Upper Level Lows

A weak upper level low moving west to west north west thought the Western Caribbean Sea, with a tropical wave on its western periphery.

A strong upper level, which was north of Hispaniola yesterday, has now moved west and is located north of Eastern Cuba, near the southern Bahamas. The wind shear associated with that low has weakened a bit over night, but still runs 30-35knots.

Two more upper level lows has been added into the picture, both located side by side near 30N, 40W, in the Central North Atlantic.

93L invest is an are of disturbed weather associated with a stationery frontal boundary east of Florida. Upper Level winds are marginal to favorable for development, so its an area to watch.

Tropics Today

By: Weather456, 2:25 PM GMT on August 06, 2006

Severe Tropical Storm Maria
JMA identified a tropical depression southwest of Minamitorisima on August 4 and began issuing advisories. On August 5, the system had sufficiently strengthened to be named Tropical Storm Maria. The JTWC designated this system as a tropical depression later that day before upgrading it to a tropical storm on August 6, while the JMA upgraded it to a severe tropical storm at 0600 UTC.

Current Storm Information
As of 0900 UTC August 5, the JTWC reports that Tropical Storm Maria is located approximately 165 nm (305 km) north of Iwo Jima, Japan, has maximum sustained winds of 60 knots (110 km/h, 70 mph), and is moving northwest at 13 knots. The JMA reports Maria to be located near 27.7N 141.1E, as having maximum sustained winds of 50 knots (95 km/h), moving west-northwest at 11 knots, and having a minimum central pressure of 985 hPa.

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Tropical Storm Saomai
The JTWC identified a tropical depression near the Caroline Islands late on August 4 UTC. The JMA designated it as such at 0000 UTC August 5. Nine hours later, the JTWC upgraded Tropical Depression 08W to a tropical storm, three hours before the JMA named it Saomai.

Current Storm Information

As of 0900 UTC August 5, the JTWC reports Tropical Storm Saomai to be centred approximately 145 nm (270 km) northwest of Guam with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (105 km/h, 65 mph), and reported that it was moving northwest at 14 knots. The JMA, reports the location of Tropical Storm Saomai at 16.3N 142.4E, with a minimum pressure of 992 hPa and moving north-northwest at 22 knots (40 km/h), with a maximum sustained wind of 45 knots.
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Tropical Storm Bopha (Inday)

The JMA identified a tropical depression in the open Pacific on August 5. PAGASA named this storm late on August 5 as it was forecast to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains to the Philippines. JMA upgraded it to Tropical Storm Bopha on August 6.

Current Storm Information
At 0900 UTC August 6, the JMA reported that Tropical Storm Bopha (Inday) was located near 22.2N 130.9E, had maximum sustained winds of 40 knots (75 km/h), and was moving northwest at 6 knots (11 km/h). Minimum central pressure was 996 hPa. The JTWC reports the location of Bopha to be approximately 320 nm (595 km) southeast of Naha, Okinawa, and that it had maximum sustained winds of 30 knots while moving northwest at 5 knots.

What hurricane became the first major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or above) on record to form as low as 10N latitude?


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

About Weather456

With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.