With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.
By: Weather456, 3:43 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
After brief inactivity after Hurricane Dolly a few weeks ago, the fifth tropical storm of the season manifested itself in the Gulf of Mexico over the past 24 hours. Recent visible animations along with surface observations indicated that the overall cloud cover has gotten better organize over the past 6 hours but the center of circulation remains on the NW edge of the deepest convection and cloudiness and this is due to some dry air moving off the Deep South. Despite this, the latest surface observations indicate that the low level closed circulation (LLCC) is gradually moving under this cloud canopy. Edouard is situated over 28C waters which become progressively warmer further west; wind shear is down to 5-10 knots but not oriented in an outflow pattern but rather directed from the NNE which is also responsible for the convection mainly south of the LLCC. Over time, this pattern should change and allows for a more conducive upper outflow pattern. The system is moving under the influence of a deep layer ridge over the Southern Plains and thus a westward movement is expected over the next couple of days. Under this movement and favorable conditions, Edouard should become a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane before sticking Texas. Meanwhile, the outer effects of Edouard will continue to affect southern Louisiana over the next couple of days. Texas seems to be the hot spot this year.
GOES-12 Visible Imagery with radar and surface observations overlaid.
Elsewhere, tropical invest 99L continues to move into more hostile upper winds just to the southeast of a spinning upper low over the Central Atlantic. No development expected here.
Models are predicting the formation of a low pressure area in the Eastern Atlantic over the next couple of days. There is a board area of low pressure and scattered convection sitting off the coast of Africa and conditions appear marginally conducive for development. The area will be watched.
Infared Imagery of the Eastern Atlantic/West Africa.
Overview of the Atlantic
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