Musings on strong hurricanes moving west.

By: angiest , 3:13 PM GMT on September 07, 2008

I know I will be accused of wish-casting here (I live on the west side of Houston, specifically Katy, for those who know the region), but given the number of posts I have seen that already want to write-off a Texas impact, let me remind everyone of what happened 108 years ago on Monday and Tuesday:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at190098.asp


Now, take a good look at that storm's track over Hispaniola (not terribly far south of where Ike is now), and then look at the track across Cuba compared to Ike, and compare it's trek across the Gulf (with the hard left jog roughly south of the Pensacola) with what Ike is forecast to do and what some of the models (notably the GFDL and the HWRF) show it doing at this time.

Is Ike coming to Texas? Probably not. The odds of any particular stretch of coastline being impacted by any particular storm are necessarily low, (the core of the storm is typically small in relationship to the huge size of the coast) but at this point no place in the Gulf except for the Keys are any more or less likely to receive a landfall from Ike than any other place.

By the way, the late summer of 1900 saw an extremely strong Bermuda High stretching far to the West. So, yes, it has happened and it can happen again.

And yes, I know the 1900 storm is rated as a TS over Hispaniola and Cuba, but it turned west while strengthening into a monster cat 4 storm. Unfortunately, it was common knowledge that West Indies storms turned north and didn't enter the Gulf, and certainly, they didn't go West to Texas.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. angiest
5:06 PM GMT on September 07, 2008
My expectation of being flamed comes from the number of people I have seen since I started following this blog during Gustav who said that storm and Ike won't come here just because it is too strong and will recurve before getting this far west. I wanted to point out a specific storm in a similar location to Ike that was following a track similar to the forecast for Ike at a lmost the same time of year. As I mentioned, the thought of storms turning before getting to Galveston was exacgtly what the weather bureau thought in 1900, with catastrophic results.
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1. cajngranny
4:17 PM GMT on September 07, 2008
why expect flaming? People do look at historical info also. that hurricane has been mentioned over and over again, through the years on Dr.M's blog. I wouldn't want it to hit Galveston any more than Houston or St.Mary Parish, La. (civil parish)
I would miss the ferry in Galveston. It would mean more stops in Katy for me. :)
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