TC surge prediction and measurements

By: atmoaggie , 2:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008

I know...I'll start putting a few interesting tidbits here as I come across them for work.

Storm surge measurements/modeling:

for Gustav:
"On August 29–31, 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a mobile monitoring network consisting of 124 pressure transducers (sensors) (figs. 1, 2) at 80 sites over an area of about 4,200 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on September 1. One-hundred twenty-one sensors from 61 sites (fig. 3) were recovered. Thirty-seven sites from which sensors were recovered were in the New Orleans area, and the remaining 24 sites were distributed throughout southeastern Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge (21), riverine flooding (18), anthropogenic (affected by the operation of gates or pumps) (17), or mixed/uncertain on the basis of field observations and the appearance of the water-level data (5)."

From Open-File Report 2008–1373

for Ike:
"The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of 117 pressure transducers (sensors) at 65 sites over an area of about 5,000 square miles to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Ike, which struck southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana September 12–13, 2008. Fifty-six sites were in Texas and nine were in Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge, riverine, or beach/wave on the basis of proximity to the Gulf Coast. One-hundred five sensors from 59 sites (fig. 1) were recovered; 12 sensors from six sites either were lost during the storm or were not retrieved. All 59 sites (41 surge, 10 riverine, 8 beach/wave) had sensors to record water pressure (fig. 2), which is expressed as water level in feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88), and 46 sites had an additional sensor to record barometric pressure, expressed in pounds per square inch. Figure 3 shows an example of water level and barometric pressure over time recorded by sensors during the storm."

From Open-File Report 2008–1365

I'll have some additions here before too terribly long.



Now for a little fun:


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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23. atmoaggie
9:43 PM GMT on April 06, 2009
Uh oh, someone did a little math:

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22. atmoaggie
9:42 PM GMT on April 06, 2009
Haven't looked at this in a couple of months. What astounding variability from year to year.


Looks like Florida isn't the only place with a little extra cold this spring.

Odd, though, I haven't been seeing any mainstream media reports about the conditions of the Arctic ice recently. Used to hear about it all the time for some reason.
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21. atmoaggie
9:41 PM GMT on April 06, 2009


So, if the natural cycles do not have exactly the same frequency (good assumption), and more than one has teleconnections (that would be 2 good ones), then we have to consider more than one cycle at all times and the constructive or destructive summation of those teleconnections. Then we have to ask, "Where in these cycles do we have quality measurements?" if we are to discern what may be anthropogenic in origin and what may be natural. Cannot answer that question?
Come back once you can.

Still there? Therefore you think we do know just where in the natural cycles we actually have good measurements.
So where in the sum of sines above did we begin to measure these important variables in a spatially continuous way on a regular basis via satellite?
(pick any 2 cycles with known teleconnections to any Arctic variable, such as: cloud cover, wind direction, insolation, temps, etc.) Impossible to answer. If you choose the PDO and AO...not an easy pick without measuring the relative amplitudes of those for a few more cycles. How about the AO and QBO? Anybody measure the amplitude of more than a couple of AOs in a way that we can compare them to each other? No.

Deep in the recesses of Walt Meier's skull (NSIDC nature denialist): "Oh, I know. We will just publish a fear article to be sure we continue to have the funding to measure the Arctic sea ice while we wait for enough data to use it for real science."
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20. thelmores
2:39 AM GMT on April 02, 2009
nice gif atmo........

very interesting all the attenuation......
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19. atmoaggie
10:05 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
B.S.


Bachelor of Science?
Bold Statement?

Ahhh, Box Score. Or maybe Boy Scouts. Or Boolean Search (which I haven't figured out how to do in a blog, yet).
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18. Patrap
9:44 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
B.S.
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17. cyclonebuster
3:58 AM GMT on January 30, 2009
What is the worlds largest natural resource?
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16. atmoaggie
3:53 AM GMT on January 30, 2009
I'm not well read on AGW issue any opinion I would have would be an uninformed one.

I am of the opinion that everyone's opinion about that is uninformed. The discipline is in it's infancy. We will be learning about climate for a long time to come.

"Having said that I've considered myself a conservationist all of my life. Nature, water,resources etc."

Me too. I once was the type to be a bit of a nature nut. We would go backpacking for 10 days, live off what we brought and/or what nature could provide and leave no clue of our presence wherever we went.

I still am of the conservationist mentality. (I have little respect for my neighbors that drive 100 miles+ round trip to commute to the south shore on a daily basis.)

Now I am a science nut. An Earth Science nut. And I recognize that we have been studying Earth Science as a whole for a very long time in our human history, yet we learn new things everyday. Some of them wholly important to the basic principles of physics. To think that we know enough about the longer term climactic conditions, and their effects, is a bit arrogant in my opinion.
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15. tkeith
1:50 AM GMT on January 30, 2009
atmo,
I'm not well read on AGW issue any opinion I would have would be an uninformed one. Having said that I've considered myself a conservationist all of my life. Nature, water,resources etc.

I think the study of the environment is and always will be nessacery, knowledge is in fact power.
It seems the most controversial part of the issue is the almighty dollar and funding allocation.

and yes I've had a few one finger salutes on the Huey P...LOL.
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14. atmoaggie
1:13 AM GMT on January 30, 2009
Quoting tkeith:
You got the new Fremeaux overpass...lol.

Have you been across the new Rigolets Pass Bridge?

I spent all of 06 and 07 on that praject.
I'm over here on the Huey P. widening project now...the traffic problems we are creating while under construction are rather unpleasant.


I haven't been to the Rigolets Pass bridge since it opened. I mainly stay between Covington and work at Gause/Robert in Slidell.

I hear about the Huey on WWL all the time. You guys are not making friends...
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13. atmoaggie
1:10 AM GMT on January 30, 2009
Yay, we are starting to actually measure the stuff we have been getting all up in arms over.

"A team of scientists has successfully flown from the Arctic to the Antarctic this month aboard an advanced research aircraft, the first step in a three-year project to make the most extensive airborne measurements of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to date. The findings will help scientists determine where and when greenhouse gases enter and leave the atmosphere, a critical prerequisite for taking steps to curb global warming.

"This mission is providing us with amazing data about carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from all over the world," says Britton Stephens, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and one of the project's principal investigators. "This will lead to improved predictions about greenhouse gases and enable society to make better decisions about climate change."

From here.

I can tell ya, those airplane field campaigns are a blast. I went on one in NASA's DC8 sampling atmo chem for 9 hours around the US (Missouri to OK, to Houston, to Atlanta, to Cleveland and back to Missouri). Went from 1000 feet to 45000 feet and back down 12 times. My head exploded...was messy.
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12. tkeith
9:12 PM GMT on January 29, 2009
You got the new Fremeaux overpass...lol.

Have you been across the new Rigolets Pass Bridge?

I spent all of 06 and 07 on that praject.
I'm over here on the Huey P. widening project now...the traffic problems we are creating while under construction are rather unpleasant.
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11. atmoaggie
9:03 PM GMT on January 29, 2009
Quoting tkeith:
It's about time you updated this blog atmo...LOL!

How are things across the Lake?


Busy, trafficky, and expensive...like usual, I suppose. You know how it is over here.

After Kat, we have been flooded with Chalmartians. Lots of business under construction and very little in the way of roads under construction. Typical Louisiana.
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10. tkeith
8:51 PM GMT on January 29, 2009
It's about time you updated this blog atmo...LOL!

How are things across the Lake?
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9. atmoaggie
8:30 PM GMT on January 29, 2009
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I thought it might intrest you if I told you that I will be attending Texas A&M to study Meteorology starting in the Fall of 2009.


Good! You are correct.

Best of luck.

1. Should you be in the mood for it: Here is a wee bit of advice. Try not to get too involved in the extra-curricular activities at A&M. Do pick a couple of interest, try everything once, but do not try to do everything all the time.

I knew a few people that were heavily involved in everything. They (more than one) got thrown out for grades more than once.

2. Be not afraid to take a core class at Blinn college (in Bryan with shuttle running between the 2 schools). It will cost half. It will have 1/6 the number of students. The prof will likely speak english. The class (not the grade!) will transfer just fine to A&M (this means that when you transfer in a course the pass or fail is important, but the grade is not included in your A&M GPA). I took cal 3 during the summer there in 3.5 weeks after dropping it the previous semester thanks to 200 students in the class and an a$$-munch prof that couldn't pronounce "Integrate".
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8. jimmiek
3:10 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I thought it might intrest you if I told you that I will be attending Texas A&M to study Meteorology starting in the Fall of 2009.


Great. They have a really good department, including a couple of NSF CAREER award winners.
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7. 1900hurricane
3:41 AM GMT on January 17, 2009
I thought it might intrest you if I told you that I will be attending Texas A&M to study Meteorology starting in the Fall of 2009.
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6. tkeith
1:29 AM GMT on September 02, 2008
thanks for the update atmo got somefriends that live in slidell called me, they are evaced to memphis. i live in kenner and am in ark. i have friends in kenner that stayed keeping me updated. first word i've heard on slidell thanks...keith
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5. atmoaggie
1:15 AM GMT on September 02, 2008
Just now, Slidell chief of police on WWL. Asking 2 things of populace:
1. Please do not flush any toilets until tomorrow. The sewer treatment system is not working due to power loss.
2. Do not come into the city of Slidell for now. If caught out during dawn-to-dusk any officer will have discretion to arrest.
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4. atmoaggie
10:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Geez, my post disappeared. That sux.

My report from driving around Slidell:
Some commercial signs down
Some small tress down (aka Crepe Myrtles)
Some instances of down wires
No large trees down that I saw
No major structural damage outside of a couple of businesses that had the roof peeled back

Old town looked OK. Gause is fine except for a power line in the roadway. Front street is problem free.

Our location is as hard as advertised...haven't lost a thing. Phone, power, internet, AC, and water all good. Even the cable is still working...been watching the NOLA tv stations. The generator has been running since 6:30 this morning. My wife, who was once worried about our location, said we are coming back for any and all future storms. We honestly slept comfortably through half of Gustav's passage. Without our communications, we would have no idea it was raining or windy outside from the basement.

I will have an update on more conditions later on. I can say that if you haven't left to come back, do NOT do it now. There is debris in most roads, no traffic signals, and the dusk-to-dawn curfew. You do not want to come into town after dark.

Covington: Our neighbor already went home and called us to say that there wasn't any major damage or even large trees down in Tammany Hills nearest to the Harrison and 190 intersection.

Take care.

Cheers,
-atmoaggie
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3. BajaALemt
5:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Hey atmo! Nice to see you and glad to hear that you folks are faring well where you're at. Wouldn't it be nice of Ma Nature was a little better at selected WHAT..to prune :)
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2. atmoaggie
5:19 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Thanks.

An update. Still the same status on our building services.

The wind outside has picked up a little more, but certainly not hurricane force. The aformentioned dead trees are still standing. Interesting, though, is that I can hear a doppler shift in our generator's exhaust before I feel a gust. (It is very loud out on the loading dock, btw, with a 3 megawatt diesel generator...earplugs required)

We have been watching the water levels for points south and east, as we have a lot of friends and family of the St Bernard affliction ;-) The wave heights have been impressive for little old Gus.

More soon.
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1. LakeWorthFinn
4:56 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Nice blog, congrats and welcome to WU!
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