keithneese's Wunderblog

Friday August 29 2008

By: keithneese, 2:03 AM GMT on August 30, 2008

Gustav is the main feature today. We are watching him as he moves into the GOMEX in the next couple of days. The models are coming together to bring him into Louisiana, but the latest sampling mission will not be loaded into the models until in the morning. Keep an eye on the gulf as you enjoy the weekend.


I will post an update in the morning.

10:15am update 30 August 2008:

Having viewed satellite imagery for the last few hours, it is becoming apparent that Gus is moving well east of the NHC forecast plots. I'm not sure what type of bearing this may have on their forecast, but we will have to watch.


I'll post another update around 1pm, the time of the next update.


UPDATE 1:15PM 30 AUG 2008:

Gustav has now become a massive CAT 4 hurricane. I'm still seeing that the satellite loops put him east of the forecast path. WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.

It is therefore possible that Gustav will be a cat 5 later in the day today as well. I will continue to monitor, and I will post an update around 4 pm central time.

4:33PM UPDATE 30 AUGUST 2008

Mobile is now under a hurricane watch. Now is the time to review your plans and prepare to take action. The satellite loops show that Gus is moving east of ALL of the forecast plots, and if this trend continues, NHC will have to move the track. In my opinion, landfall will be well east of the current projections.


EVERYONE BE SAFE.

Another update around 7pm.
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Wednesday August 27, 2008

By: keithneese, 11:29 AM GMT on August 27, 2008

Today is shaping up to be a very nice day. It's going to be warmer today than yesterday, but chances for rain are slim to none.


Now to Gustav... he stalled out overnight, but is forecast to pick up moving WNW or W later today. He is forecast to move into the Gulf this weekend, and is forecast to be nearing the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.



7:40pm Update:

We really need to watch Gustav going into the weekend. I think that we will feel some effects from him, but to what extent, I don't think we can accurately predict at this time. Needless to say, all eyes need to be on the GOMEX by this weekend.

Looks like it's going to be a nice night, with some very good weather for the next couple of days.










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Tuesday August 26 2008

By: keithneese, 11:24 AM GMT on August 26, 2008

Today should be a relatively nice day. The major rains left with Fay has moved to our east, and the flood advisories have been cancelled.

We do need to keep an eye on Gustav, as the models show things could get interesting in the first part of next week.


Have a great day, and I'll post an update this evening.




7:40pm Update:

We had a nice day along the Alabama coast today. It seems that Fay's influence is moving away from us, and we are now looking at some dry days ahead.

The forecast models for Gustav are quite a bit concerning, but it is still too early to tell what he's gonna do. It will be something to pay attention to as we move into the weekend.




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SPC AC 261702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL
RAPIDLY EJECT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES. FARTHER E...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL LIFT NNEWD THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO KS...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LEAD SHORT WAVE MAY TEND TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TSTMS ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREAFTER...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COINCIDENT WITH ERN EXTENSION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN MN...TO AS
HIGH AS 2000-2500 J/KG OVER KS.

WHILE THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS NRN EXTENSION OF
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SHEAR GENERALLY DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE.
GIVEN THIS DISPLACEMENT OF STRONGER SHEAR FROM THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ATTM.
NONETHELESS...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...AZ...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AZ WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG FAVORED
TERRAIN WITH AN ENHANCED BELT OF 20-25 KT NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW LIKELY
SUPPORTING THE SWWD MOVEMENT/PROPAGATION OF TSTMS INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

...LOWER OH VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO NC...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FAY LIFT NNEWD. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
MOIST FROM VICINITY OF SYSTEM CENTER ESEWD ALONG AND S OF ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS NC/VA.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS DO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3
KM AGL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/26/2008



Have a great night, and I'll post again in the morning, Lord willing!

Finally some blue skies!

By: keithneese, 12:39 AM GMT on August 26, 2008

Fay flooded out some areas around us today. The rain of the morning made way for some nice weather this afternoon. There is a chance of some rain tonight, but overall it should be a nice week.


Gustav has formed, and forecast models try to bring it into the GOMEX. Too early to get concerned, but we will keep an eye on it.


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Monday August 25 2008

By: keithneese, 11:20 AM GMT on August 25, 2008

We had some very heavy rain overnight here on Halls Mill. We are under a tornado watch until 9am, and a Flash Flood Warning. It looks like there will be a lot more rain today, so please everyone be careful.



Sunday August 24 2008

By: keithneese, 2:02 PM GMT on August 24, 2008

Fay has now weakened to a TD, and the center is about 55 miles north of Mobile. We still have some good POPS over the area, so we will be watching to see what happens.


Now that the circulation is moving away from us, we will be in the wetter part of the storm. Storms are forecast to fire up today and bring some gusty winds and rain to our area, and being on the eastern side with the moisture coming off the Gulf, there will possibly be a chance for tornadoes. Stay tuned to the usual media resources just in case a tornado watch is issued later today.


All in all, we fared better than was previously thought. Not much in the way of rain and wind, and she sort of fell apart after hitting land. I'm considering this a good dry run for next time... as we well know there will be a next time.


Keith


Update 12:15pm:

We are seeing a slight increase in rain here on Halls Mill Rd. For a few minutes this morning we had partly cloudy skies and the sun shone. Now this has given way to heavy cloud cover again, and the rain is a little more frequent.

I'll post another update later this afternoon.


12:45pm:

We just received a downpour. It was the heaviest rain I have seen so far. Not much wind was with the rain, but the rain came down hard for a good 5 minutes.


Update 4:25pm:

It appears that Fay has stalled out over Mississippi. We will continue to watch the radar loops for any storms coming back this way, and the latest forecast is calling for 100% chance of rain tomorrow. There is an 80% chance for tonight, so we will just have to see. Since my last post no rain has fallen here at my house. Have a good rest of the evening and I will post another update before I call it a night. There could be some interesting weather news later this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 94L tomorrow. Hopefully this one will stay away from the GOMEX.



7:25pm Update:

We got a good little rain shower just a few moments ago, and it's looking like there may be more on the way according to the radar. Have to wait and see.



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weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
2 products issued by NWS for: Mobile AL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...

.THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST
OF THAT BROAD CENTER...ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BANDS OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM EAST OF FAY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER COVERAGES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON
MONDAY...WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS SET UP. EXACTLY
WHERE THOSE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL SET UP IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR THESE REASONS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-250500-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-080826T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
406 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA
ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...
STONE AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. FAY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FORMING UP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WHERE
THE BANDS OF PERSISTENT HEAVIER RAINS SET UP.

* SHOULD THE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN BANDS MATERIALIZE LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD RESULT IN PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL AND A POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEXT FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

GARMON









Saturday Morning Update

By: keithneese, 12:07 PM GMT on August 23, 2008

It appears that all of Fay's rain is going to move to our north. We will still have to watch the east end, but I'm beginning to think that Fay has taken more of a northwestward motion and we may not have much rain at all.




Keith



Fay

By: keithneese, 3:15 AM GMT on August 23, 2008

As of 10:00pm, Mobile is now under a tropical storm warning. Tonight is a very nice night, cool breeze, and clear skies. Of course that is going to change tomorrow. Looking at the NW Florida satellite loop shows the large rain shield of Fay slowly creeping along the coast in our direction.

Everyone stay safe. We are under a Flash Flood Watch, so remember turn around don't drown. Don't be out if you don't have to.



I'll post again in the morning.

Keith

Thursday Aug 21 2008

By: keithneese, 11:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2008

Once again the forecast path of Fay has been shifting from slightly north of our area to back over it. Fay is going to be a big rainmaker for our area, and it looks like it may stall out over our Mobile around Monday or Tuesday.



Here is the forecast for today, and I'll post an update tonight:


Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday August 20,2008

By: keithneese, 11:25 AM GMT on August 20, 2008

According to the latest forecast path from NHC, Fay should be near north Mobile County on Sunday to Monday. We are going to be monitoring Fay, just in case she moves out over the GOMEX again.


Here is the forecast for today, and you will notice that the POPS have decreased. The frontal boundry that has been to our south for what seems like years now, well, it's just about gone, according to the NWS forecast discussion this morning. Have a great day, and I'll post an update this evening!


Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. East winds 5 to 10 mph becoming north late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent



PM Update:

We are now looking for Fay to be moving very near the Mobile area this weekend. Gonna be a wet one! Here's the forecast for this evening, and I'll post again tomorrow:

Partly cloudy. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph becoming north overnight. Chance of rain 20 percent

Wednesday August 20,2008

By: keithneese, 11:26 AM GMT on August 20, 2008

According to the latest forecast path from NHC, Fay should be near north Mobile County on Sunday to Monday. We are going to be monitoring Fay, just in case she moves out over the GOMEX again.


Here is the forecast for today, and you will notice that the POPS have decreased. The frontal boundry that has been to our south for what seems like years now, well, it's just about gone, according to the NWS forecast discussion this morning. Have a great day, and I'll post an update this evening!


Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. East winds 5 to 10 mph becoming north late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent

Tuesday August 19 2008

By: keithneese, 11:24 AM GMT on August 19, 2008

Fay is now making landfall in Florida, but now the NHC has come into agreement with the models that Fay will curve back to the west. Fay looks like she could be with us for a while.


Around here, it's turning into a nice morning, but we again have rain in the forecast today; even though it is a slight chance.


I'll post an update this evening.


Update:

We'll really have to watch Fay. Current forecast models bring it very near us on Sunday. We'll have to watch.



Monday Update

By: keithneese, 11:41 AM GMT on August 18, 2008

Well, after a weekend of watching the models forecasting Fay, it looks like NHC got it right. Our prayers are with the people in Florida.



For us today, we still have the chance of some rain today. This morning, however has started out looking very nice, with a comfortable temperature.



PM Update:

There's another area of disturbed weather in the tropics that we are watching. All eyes are still on Fay, which just continues to baffle the computer models. Some of the models hint that she might pose a problem for us later down the road. We'll have to watch it.
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keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.