keithneese's Wunderblog

14 September 2008/Cold Front Coming...

By: keithneese, 10:21 PM GMT on September 14, 2008

We have a frontal boundary approaching the area, and there is a chance of rain with it. We then will have a few nights of cooler temps to enjoy.


The tropics are still quiet, and look like they should stay that way thru the upcoming week.


Here is tonights NWS forecast:

Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND WRN NY......

...UPPER OH VALLEY/WRN NY/VT...
THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SW ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CENTER...SFC
WINDS ARE SLY AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. IN
ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STRONG 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD
ACROSS OH INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES. AS THE REMNANTS OF IKE DRIFT NEWD...THE
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD MAY REACH WRN NY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

ACROSS NRN NY AND VT...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO IS IN PLACE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE CLEARING ACROSS
MUCH OF NY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM ERN PA NWD ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...RUC
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE
VERY WARM WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE OVER NRN NY AND VT WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
AGITATED CUMULUS ATTM. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE AND MOVE ACROSS NRN
NY...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT WITH A MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING CELL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SEWD ACROSS WRN MN AND SRN LA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE RUC SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS
SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


13 September 2008/IKE makes landfall

By: keithneese, 8:39 PM GMT on September 13, 2008

IKE is now inland over TX, and our thoughts and prayers are with the people there. Here locally, our conditions should start improving over the next couple of days.


And in the tropics...NOTHING!!!!! HOORAY!!!!

11 September 2008/IKE nears Texas

By: keithneese, 12:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008

Sorry for not posting this morning, things were crazy at my house. We continue to have very windy conditions with IKE passing to our south. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people in the path.


Here's what to expect locally for tonight:

Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.


Since there is a chance of rain, I'm going to include the radar image below. I will also post the text to the watches/warnings that have been issued for our area.


Everyone have a good night!


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Flood Warning
Statement as of 12:37 PM CDT on September 11, 2008


The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Bayou Sara at Saraland
* from this afternoon until Saturday morning
* at noon Thursday the stage was... 3.6 feet
* minor flooding is forecast
* flood stage is 4.0 feet
* forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to
near 4.9 feet by this evening. The river will fall below flood stage by early
Saturday morning.
* At 4.0 feet... flooding of streets begins and becomes widespread east of the
Railroad when the level reaches 5 feet.


Coastal Flood Warning, High Surf Warning
Statement as of 6:21 PM CDT on September 11, 2008


... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 12 PM CDT
Saturday...
... High surf warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Friday...

A coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 12 PM CDT
Saturday. A high surf warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT
Friday.

Large swells combined with strong winds has resulted in rising
water several feet above astronomical tides... producing periods of
coastal flooding all along the north central Gulf Coast. The effect
of this flooding will be maximized around the time of high tide.
Total tide heights of 4 to 6 feet are expected in Mobile County.

Mobile County emergency management reports the west end of
Dauphin Island is flooded and the North Entrance to the Dauphin
Island bridge had water splashing on to the roadway. Highway
90 on the Mobile Bay causeway is also experiencing flooding.

Flooding will also continue along the western shore of Mobile Bay in
lower lying areas and residential yards along inland waterways such
as dog river and bayou Sara.

Baldwin County emergency management reports that West Beach...
Fort Morgan... Flash Island and County Road 1 had water covering
the roadway. In these areas water was coming under housing
structures on stilts. Total tide heights of 3 to 5 feet will
allow these conditions to persist through Saturday... especially at
time of high tide Friday morning. Residents are urged to not attempt
to cross water covered roads.

Escambia County emergency management reports some water on via de
Luna street between Pensacola Beach and Navarre. In Santa Rosa
County along Escambia Bay... water was approaching some
residential areas. Gulf Breeze Shoreline Park had water. In
Okaloosa County... Highway 98 on Okaloosa island has been closed
due to water on Road and lunus beach drive was closed in Destin.

Large swells are expected to continue to break on the sand bars
from just offshore up to a mile offshore. Waves 10 to 15 feet
will break on the sand bars with smaller but still powerful
breakers on the beaches. This enhances the risk of major beach
erosion.

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property. Residents are urged to not drive across water
covered roads. Turn around... don't drown.

A high surf warning indicates that dangerous... battering waves
will pound the shoreline. This will result in very dangerous
swimming conditions... and deadly rip currents.


Wind Advisory
Statement as of 6:28 PM CDT on September 11, 2008


... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Friday...

A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Friday.

Easterly winds will continue to increase to 25 to 30 mph tonight. In
any squalls that develop and move rapidly west northwest through the
area... winds could briefly gust to 40 mph. Wind gusts to near 50
mph... mainly in squalls that develop... are possible over the islands
and the beaches.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 25 to 39 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution on any
bridges and overpasses that run in a north and south direction.


10 September 2008/IKE in the GOMEX

By: keithneese, 11:37 AM GMT on September 10, 2008

This morning we have a strengthening hurricane in the southeastern GOMEX. The models are in very good agreement that landfall will be in TX, and we are forecast to possibly see some rain from IKE over the next couple of days. As I posted in my blog last night, I really don't forsee this, because I think IKE will stay far enough south to only impact us with coastal flooding. Time will tell, however, as we all know how fickle these things can be.

The rest of the tropics are quiet, and hopefully we have reached a lull in the season for a while now.


Here's our NWS forecast for today:

Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.


Since there is a chance of rain, I will post the radar, as well as the graphics for IKE. Have a great day, and I'll post an update tonight.

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9 September 2008/In the Clear

By: keithneese, 11:34 AM GMT on September 09, 2008

Update 9:10PM:

IKE continues to move on toward TX. The NWS has given us a better than average chance of rain later this week because of IKE, but I don't think IKE is going to get close enough to influence our weather that way.

Here's our NWS forecast for tonight, and I'll post again in the morning:

Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

And, we are under a coastal flood watch until Friday afternoon. Here is the text on that advisory:

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect through Friday afternoon...

As Hurricane Ike moves west-northwest across the southeastern and
central Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday... large swells with a
period of around 13 seconds will propagate northward away from the
center of the storm. These large... long period swells are expected to
begin impacting the Gulf coastal beaches of Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle around noon on Wednesday. Easterly winds will
increase to 20 to 25 mph along the coast Wednesday night... and then
shift to the southeast on Thursday. The combination of the large
swells and strong winds will result in run-up of water on low lying
and unprotected beaches... such as the west end Dauphin Island... roads
and parking lots along coastal area... and residential yards.

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for flooding
are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be alert for later
statements or warnings... and take action to protect property.

6:30 AM:


All of the models agree this morning that IKE will make landfall in TX or MX, so we may actually go 2 weeks without a tropical system affecting our area. Cuba has been taking a pounding, so our thoughts and prayers are with them, as they have had about the same type of season we on the Gulf Coast have had.


Here's our forecast for today:


Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.


Have a great day, and I'll post an update this evening.

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8 September 2008/Sigh of Relief?

By: keithneese, 11:27 AM GMT on September 08, 2008

Update 9:13 PM:

Well, it looks like the models are coming into very good agreement for Ike to make landfall in TX. If that is the case, we should not have any effects here other than the usual rough seas associated with the passing of a hurricane to the south.

For tonight, here is the NWS forecast, and I'll post a new blog in the morning. Have a great night!


Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.










While it may be a little too early to do what the title suggests, I have to feel somewhat better for our area with the models showing IKE going toward the TX/LA area. While feeling better for our area, obviously, I don't feel that way for theirs. Our thoughts and prayers will be with everyone in the path. We still need to watch IKE, because we all know how things can change.


Here's today's NWS forecast:

Today
Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.



I will post an update tonight. Here are the IKE graphics, as well as our local radar, since we do have a chance of rain. Have a great day!!!

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7 September 2008/Still Watching Ike

By: keithneese, 6:35 PM GMT on September 07, 2008

Update 7:55 PM:

Continuing to watch Ike, and the models are not very together on the track. I'm wating for the next model runs to come out. Have a great night, and here is the forecast for this evening.


Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the late evening and overnight.

I'll post the usual morning update in the AM. Good night!

The latest model runs bode well for our part of the coast, putting Ike farther into the GOMEX, and near TX. We will have to wait and see if that pans out, since the track of Ike depends totally on how Ike responds to a trough that is forecast to come down.



Here are the usual graphics, and I'll post again later.

Have a great afternoon.


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6 September 2008/Ike Update

By: keithneese, 2:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2008

Ike continues to strengthen, and is now back up to CAT 4 intensity. I've checked out the latest model runs, and they are pulling him more into the GOMEX in about 4-5 days. The track WILL continue to change, so it is something that bears watching.

Here's tonight's NWS forecast:

Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.



We are now in the cone of uncertainty for Ike, but with it still being about 4-5 days before even entering the GOMEX, that is very likely to change. Nevertheless, we still need to keep a close eye on it, and be prepared to take action next week, if conditions warrant.


Here is today's forecast from the NWS:

Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.


I'm going to post the usual graphics below, and I will update more frequently today, since I don't have to work.

Have a great Saturday!


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And since there is a chance of rain today, here is the local radar...

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5 September 2008/Concerns of Ike's Path

By: keithneese, 11:39 AM GMT on September 05, 2008

The latest Ike models are starting to hint that Tina may reside somewhere between New Orleans and P'cola.


Hopefully that will change.


Good morning! Ike's path still continues to have some uncertainty toward the end of the forecast path. There will likely be a turn to the north, but the major concern is when that turn will be.


Ike has weakened a bit overnight. He's still a CAT 3, a major hurricane, so we will continue to have to watch it.


Here's the NWS forecast for today:

Today
Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.


I will post an update this evening. Below are the radar images and Ike graphics.


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4 September 2008

By: keithneese, 11:34 AM GMT on September 04, 2008

The forecast with Ike continues to unfold, and now it's looking like it has started to make it's turn to the west. I'm hoping that it will make a turn north before it gets to Florida, but I'm not so sure that is going to happen. We'll just have to watch and see.

Here's the NWS forecast for tonight:

Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.


We continue to watch Ike, and he has now become a Cat 4 hurricane this morning. The track is still concerning, but we are just going to have to wait and see.


Here on the coast today:

Partly sunny in the morning becoming cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.



I will have an update this evening!

Have a great day.



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3 September 2008/Gustav continues to move away

By: keithneese, 11:44 AM GMT on September 03, 2008

Update 9:17 PM:

It's been a very cloudy day, so I guess I missed the forecast this morning!!!! That's why I'm an amateur! LOL


Here's the forecast for tonight:


Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent


Ike is now a CAT 3 hurricane, and the forecast path makes it still one we need to watch.

I'll post again in the morning.

Keith


Gustav will continue to have less of an influence over our weather today. As he moves away, local conditions will continue to improve, giving way to partly cloudy skies today. Here is our forecast for today:

Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph inland... southeast 10 to 15 mph along the coast. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Since there is still a 50% chance of rain today, I am including a link to our weather radar below.

Now to the tropics... Ike continues west, Hanna continues meandering, and Josephine continues west-northwest. Ike's forecast track is still concerning, and it appears that at the end of the period, he could be approaching the Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to focus my attention on Ike and Josephine, as I don't consider Hanna a threat to the Gulf at this time. Hanna appears to be an east coast storm. Gustav's remnants are in northern Louisiana and Arkansas, and he continues to be primarily a rain threat.


I'll post an update after 6pm tonight.

Have a great day!

Keith



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2 September 2008/Gustav moves away, now watching Ike

By: keithneese, 11:47 AM GMT on September 02, 2008

Here's what to expect for tonight:

Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph inland... southeast 10 to 15 mph along the coast. Chance of rain 50 percent.

I'll post again in the morning.




Gustav has moved on, and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The last advisory has been issued, so even though it feels like we've been tracking him for months, we can now relax a little bit. This morning, skies are cloudy, and we still have the flood watch posted, but the winds are not as blustery as they were last night.

Here is what to expect for today:

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the middle 80s. Inland...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Along the coast... southeast winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty becoming 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Now we have TD 10, as well as TS Ike. TD 10 is very far away, so I'm not too concerned about it. Ike, which is supposed to be moving quite rapidly, could be bearing down on the Bahamas and Florida as we get closer to the weekend. I have posted some graphics below.

Have a great day, and thankfully Gustav is moving out of the picture. I'll post an update this evening after work.


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2 September 2008/Gustav moves away, now watching Ike

By: keithneese, 11:46 AM GMT on September 02, 2008

Gustav has moved on, and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The last advisory has been issued, so even though it feels like we've been tracking him for months, we can now relax a little bit. This morning, skies are cloudy, and we still have the flood watch posted, but the winds are not as blustery as they were last night.

Here is what to expect for today:

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the middle 80s. Inland...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Along the coast... southeast winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty becoming 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Now we have TD 10, as well as TS Ike. TD 10 is very far away, so I'm not too concerned about it. Ike, which is supposed to be moving quite rapidly, could be bearing down on the Bahamas and Florida as we get closer to the weekend. I have posted some graphics below.

Have a great day, and thankfully Gustav is moving out of the picture. I'll post an update this evening after work.


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2 September 2008/Gustav moves away, now watching Ike

By: keithneese, 11:46 AM GMT on September 02, 2008

Gustav has moved on, and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The last advisory has been issued, so even though it feels like we've been tracking him for months, we can now relax a little bit. This morning, skies are cloudy, and we still have the flood watch posted, but the winds are not as blustery as they were last night.

Here is what to expect for today:

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the middle 80s. Inland...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Along the coast... southeast winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty becoming 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Now we have TD 10, as well as TS Ike. TD 10 is very far away, so I'm not too concerned about it. Ike, which is supposed to be moving quite rapidly, could be bearing down on the Bahamas and Florida as we get closer to the weekend. I have posted some graphics below.

Have a great day, and thankfully Gustav is moving out of the picture. I'll post an update this evening after work.


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1 September 2008/Gustav Comes Ashore

By: keithneese, 12:47 PM GMT on September 01, 2008

UPDATE 8:35 PM 1 SEP 2008

I'm beginning to think that the rain may be subsiding for us here in the Mobile area. The massive band that we have been watching all day seems to be falling apart. There is still the night time hours, in which Fay dumped most of her rain on our area. I hope that doesn't happen with Gus, but that is something that we will just have to wait and see about.

After Gus gets out of here, we should go back to our normal pattern, which will be nice. Normal is good...


We will now start watching Ike. Nothing to worry about now, but we will have to see if the current path holds. If it does, Ike could make it into the GOMEX by next week, but that is a BIG IF.


Keith

UPDATE 7:25 PM 1 SEP 2008

It has begun raining again here on Halls Mill. I'm watching the creek behind the house, as well as the conditions on Halls Mill Rd, and so far so good. I hope that it stays that way, but with the flood warning, and the fact that we are in a flood zone, we are being very careful and are prepared to take action, in case it becomes necessary.

Gustav is now a minimal CAT 1 hurricane, and is 35 miles NNW of Lafeyette Lousiana, so hopefully with it moving away, conditions will begin to improve for us here. Our thoughts and prayers are with our friends in Louisiana.





UPDATE 6:18 PM 1 SEP 2008

...A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
extreme south central Escambia...Mobile...southern Baldwin...Wayne...
Greene...Perry...stone...George...southwestern Choctaw and Washington
counties...

At 606 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate rain bands from Hurricane Gustav producing very heavy rain
across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.
Rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches have fallen across portions of the
area and an additional 3 to 5 inches is possible through late this
evening.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice...turn around...dont drown.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT Tuesday morning
for southwestern Alabama and northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.



Update 6:15 PM 1 SEP 2008

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
extreme south central Escambia County in northwest Florida...
George County in southeast Mississippi...
this includes the city of Lucedale...
Greene County in southeast Mississippi...
this includes the city of Leakesville...
Perry County in southeast Mississippi...
this includes the city of New Augusta...
Stone County in southeast Mississippi...
this includes the city of Wiggins...
Wayne County in southeast Mississippi...
this includes the city of Waynesboro...
southwestern Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...
this includes the city of Bay Minette...
southwestern Choctaw County in southwest Alabama...
Mobile County in southwest Alabama...
this includes the cities of...downtown Mobile...Dauphin Island...
Washington County in southwest Alabama...
this includes the city of Chatom...

* until 900 PM CDT

* at 601 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
flash flooding from a thunderstorm over the warned area.

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Yellow
Pine...Yarbo...Wilmer...Vinegar Bend...Vaughn...Turnerville...
Topton...Tibbie...Stockton...Silas...Sidney...Seaboard...Satsuma...
Saraland...Salco...Pineola...Oak Grove...Mount Vernon...Moffet...
Millry...Melvin...McIntosh...Malcolm...Lott and Coleman Dairy ro...
Loper...Kushla...Koenton...Jordan...Isney...i65 and US 43...i65 and
al 59...i65 and al 225...hurricane...Healing Springs...Hawthorn...
Gulfcrest...Georgetown...Fruitdale...Fort Stoddard...Fairford...
Evansboro...Escatawpa...Earlville...Douglasville...Deer Park...
Cullomburg...Crossroads...Creola...Citronelle...Chunchula...
Chastang...Celeste...CArpenter...Calvert...Bucks...Bolinger...
axis...Aquilla...Woodwards...Wingate...Winchester...Whites
Crossing...Whistler...Vernal...Tallahala...Strengthford...state
line...Smithtown...Shipman...Sand Hill...Runnelstown...Royce...
Rounsaville...Robinson Junction...Richton...Rhodes...Pisgah...
Piave...Neely...Mulberry...Merrill...McLain...Mahned...Leaf...
Kittrell...Jonathan...Janice...Hiwannee...Hintonville...Gretna...
Ferguson...Evanston...Eucutta...Denham...Clara...Chicora...
Buckatunna...Bothwell...Boice...Bexley...Benndale...Belleville...
Beaumont...battles...Avera...Avent station and Avent

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the
warned area.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice...turn around...dont drown.

Lat...Lon 3092 8933 3092 8914 3143 8914 3144 8893
3183 8892 3189 8848 3199 8847 3030 8741
3034 8782 3026 8795 3035 8783 3067 8800
3026 8807 3024 8820 3025 8822 3027 8813
3036 8840 3073 8843 3067 8903 3076 8934





547 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2008

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...the Flood Warning continues
for
The Bayou Sara at Saraland
* until Wednesday morning
* at 5pm Monday the stage was 6.0 feet
* moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast
* flood stage is 4.0 feet
* the river will continue rising to near 6.8 feet by this evening. The river
will fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
At 6.0 feet, flooding of residences in the area will occur.






Update 4:42 PM 1 SEP 2008
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 4:38 PM CDT on September 01, 2008


The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
west central Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...
east central Mobile County in southwest Alabama...
this includes the city of downtown Mobile...

* until 530 PM CDT

* at 436 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Turkey
Branch... or about 22 miles northeast of Dauphin Island... moving
northwest at 44 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Montrose by 450 PM CDT...
Jackson Oak... Daphne and Park City by 455 PM CDT...
bridgehead by 500 PM CDT...
i65 and US 43 and Satsuma by 520 PM CDT...
Creola by 525 PM CDT...

The safest place to be during a tornado is on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building... preferably in an interior hallway or a room such as
a closet or bathroom. If possible... get under a workbench or other
piece of sturdy furniture. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body
and always stay away from windows. In addition to the tornado... this
storm is capable of producing large damaging hail or damaging
straight line winds.

If you are in Mobile home... evacuate it and get on the lowest floor
of a nearby sturdy building or in an underground storm shelter. If no
substantial shelter is available and a tornado is fast approaching...
seek shelter in a culvert... ditch or low depression and cover your
head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT Tuesday morning
for southwestern Alabama and northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

Lat... Lon 3038 8785 3042 8792 3047 8793 3048 8795
3055 8791 3066 8794 3067 8802 3065 8805
3061 8805 3059 8808 3084 8822 3095 8791
3042 8766 3035 8783
time... Mot... loc 2138z 155deg 38kt 3046 8782





Update 4:03 PM 1 SEP 2008

And here we go again... Tropical Storm Ike has formed out of TD 9. It is forecast to be very near the Bahamas on Saturday. I'll be watching it closely as that could be a very intriguing track...

It's still blustery and rainy here... more blustery than rainy, but a tornado watch is in effect until midnight, and a flood watch is also in effect. Even though it may not be raining where you are, keep an eye to the skies.

Keith



Update 1:14 PM 1 Sep 2008

Tornado warnings have been issued again, and as you can see from the radar there is a large line of storms moving in from the GOMEX. Keep an eye to the skies, and I'll post an update as condtions warrant.

Stay safe.
Keith




Update 12:20 PM 1 Sep 2008

I'm continuing to watch the rain bands from Hurricane Gustav on our radar. There is still quite a bit of rain in the GOMEX so we may be seeing some more rain today. Also I am pleased to report that as of right now, Halls Mill Creek has not flooded yet, and Halls Mill RD is still clear. It looks like that conditions may go downhill again this afternoon, but we will have to watch.


I'll post another update later on today.

Also we are now watching newly formed TD9. It's well out in the central Atlantic and is forecast to be in the Bahamas on Friday. I'll be watching it, but as for now it's nothing to be concerned about.






We have gotten some very heavy rain, as well as gusty winds this morning. We are looking for these conditions to continue throughout the day, so keep your eyes on the weather. Tornado warnings continue to fly, as is common with landfalling tropical systems. Everyone stay safe.



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keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.