keithneese's Wunderblog

3/22 and 3/23 2009

By: keithneese, 2:11 AM GMT on March 23, 2009

Hope everyone had a great weekend!! I know I did, but alas, it comes time for the work week to start again.


The mid week looks like it's possibly going to be wet.

Here's the forecast for tonight:
Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows near 50 inland with mid 50s at the coast. East winds 5 to 15 mph.

And tomorrow:
Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast 15 to 20 mph early in the afternoon.


Here is our weather discussion for the next few days. I'll update this later on in the week. Have a good night!


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL


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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222053
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING VERY SLOWLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A
DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF I-10 WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO
AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY. HAD A FEW GRASS FIRE
REPORTS CALLED IN TODAY...AND ONE LARGE FIRE NEAR I-10 AT THE
BALDWIN/ESCAMBIA LINE. WHERE SMOKE LINGERS TONIGHT WE COULD COULD
SEE SOME FOG ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A BIT TODAY. QUESTION IS...WILL THE WINDS
DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO REDUCE MECHANICAL MIXING AND RADIATION FOG
PRODUCTION WHERE SMOKE LINGERS? WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE TRENDS
LOCALLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TEMP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY ESSENTIALLY SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV AND MET MOS MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE EITHER WAY). WE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY OUT TO THE WEST ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. /05

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH STARTING
TUESDAY TO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. OUR DRY PATTERN COMES TO A
CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...ESSENTIALLY STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE
A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
AREA...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS (850 MB JET, DEEPER LAYER FORCING)
WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
INITIALLY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN-MOST ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE A BIT IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS STRONGER, FASTER
AND MORE ROBUST GENNING UP A SECONDARY LOW OVER LOUISIANA FRIDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE FRONT. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS A GREATER
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND OUR AREA WITH A STRONGER 850 MB JET, HIGHER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, AND MORE INSTABILITY. THE SLOWER ECMWF PUTS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH OUR AREA OFF UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. BY THE TIME THE
LAST UPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA BY SUNDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME INTERESTING MODEL RUN TOTALS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
INLAND COUNTIES...WITH SOME 5 TO 8 INCHES TOTAL FOR SOME AREAS.
/05

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LIFTS NORTHEAST UP INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST...A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. A MODERATE TO
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK GIVEN THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
MOBILE BAY. OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS OUT 60 NM...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP. NAVIGATION OF MARINE CRAFT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE THIS WEEK CONSIDERING WIND AND SEAS TRENDING HIGHER.
MARINE WEATHER MORE UNSETTLED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AM AND STALLS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR A GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NOTE: IF PLANNING ON HEADING TO THE BEACH THIS WEEK...SPRING
BREAKERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IMPINGING ON THE
COASTLINE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CU ~3KFT...WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HRS FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. LIGHT SE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE...
SUGGESTS A FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT BR. STRONG HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST...FAVORS MENTION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AFT 15Z MON. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG ISSUES WHERE SMOKE LINGERS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DEWPOINTS
HAVE COME UP A BIT TODAY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVER THE INLAND AREAS AFTER SUNSET...ENOUGH SO TO ALLOW
DISPERSION VALUES TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING RADIATION FOG
PRODUCTION WHERE SMOKE LINGERS AND THE DEWPOINTS GET HIGH ENOUGH
(ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA). WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE TRENDS LOCALLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. AS THE TRANSPORT FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 51 73 58 74 / 00 05 10 30
PENSACOLA 53 71 58 74 / 00 05 10 20
DESTIN 53 70 60 73 / 00 05 10 20
EVERGREEN 45 74 51 75 / 00 00 10 20
WAYNESBORO 48 75 54 74 / 00 00 05 30
CAMDEN 47 74 51 74 / 00 00 05 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM.

&&

$$

05/GARMON
10/MANISCALCO


3/17/09

By: keithneese, 11:40 AM GMT on March 17, 2009

Looks like after the wet weekend and Monday, we are going to have sunny skies later today and warm temps in the 70s. It'll be nice to dry out a little bit, as my yard resembles a swamp right now.


It appears the dense fog advisory has been lifted.


Have a great Tuesday!

3/3/09

By: keithneese, 1:46 AM GMT on March 03, 2009

Tonight is forecast to be colder than last night. We are looking at lows in the 20s, which is not hard to believe with it 40 now at 7:45 pm. There should be a warming trend coming through the rest of the week, with very warm temps by this weekend. Also, we have no chances of rain in the forecast until the first part of next week. Enjoy the beautiful weather.

We are currently under a Red Flag Warning. Here is the text of that advisory:
Red Flag Warning
RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
239 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO LONG DURATION OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO
MARGINAL DURATION BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALZ051>064-031245-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FW.A.0020.090303T1700Z-090303T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.W.0027.090303T1700Z-090303T2300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
239 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST TUESDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.



I also wanted to post the latest forecast discussion:

000
FXUS64 KMOB 022133
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
333 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TWENTIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND AREA AND WITH UPPER TWENTIES TO AROUND THIRTY NEAR THE
COAST. WILL NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE INLAND DUE TO THE DURATION
CRITERIA NOT BEING MET. DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES GRADUALLY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER THE DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MILD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
SEA BREEZE PROVIDE FOR A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALSO EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...VFR ALL THE WAY THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS...WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS EASING INTO TUESDAY...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISS RIVER SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THOUGH WINDS HAVE SETTLED BELOW EX
CAUTION LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS...AM
EXPECTING A DRAINAGE SURGE TONIGHT PUSHING WINDS BACK TO EX CAUTION
LEVELS.

AFTER THE WINDS SWITCH...WINDS WILL STAY ONSHORE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH SEAS BUILDING A BIT...BUT GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW EX CAUTION LEVELS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 29 56 32 67 / 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 29 56 36 63 / 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 32 54 39 61 / 05 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 23 55 24 65 / 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 24 55 25 66 / 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 24 53 28 63 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

29 EVERSOLE
16 MILLER


3/1 and 3/2 2009

By: keithneese, 1:11 AM GMT on March 02, 2009

Looks like we are in for a cold night tonight. Lows are forecast to be in the 20s here along the coast. Already right now, it's 48 degrees, so we are looking for a 20 degree drop over night. The good news is it's going to warm up during the work week, and so far no chance of rain this week. We all know how that can change. Stay warm, and safe, and say a prayer for those who were affected by the severe weather this weekend.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.