keithneese's Wunderblog

5/17/2009

By: keithneese, 8:45 PM GMT on May 17, 2009

It's raining here off of Halls Mill Road now. Looking like a very wet evening is in store.

Later in the week looks very interesting. A disturbance is already brewing in the Carribean, and the NHC has labeled it as "Invest" on the satellite page. It is supposed to track into the GOMEX this week, so we will have to wait and see what happens. If you are out this evening, be careful, as the roads are likely to be wet. We all know how people drive in Mobile after it rains.

Keithimg

000
FXUS64 KMOB 170907
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA
RADARS SHOW THE APPROACHING FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD FOR ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH POPS
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DUE TO OVERRUNNING FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DIMINISHES. MODERATED TEMPERATURES TODAY RESULT
IN MORE MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
1200-1700 J/KG AND LIGHT FLOW RESULTS IN RATHER LOW SHEAR. WET BULB
ZERO VALUES WILL BE NEAR 11.5 KFT AND WITH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB OF -11C WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
PULSE-TYPE STORMS DURING THE DAY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER A GIVEN
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

/29

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MONDAY STARTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FROM THERE...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN IN LESS THAN STELLAR AGREEMENT.

BUT FOR THE LATER FEW PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FRONT SCHEDULED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SLOWDOWN AS THE SOUTHERN ENERGY SLOWS AND COALESCES...LEAVING
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF A DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. NAM ADVERTISING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN FROM THE MAV GUIDANCE
MONDAY NIGHT A BIT...WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM
NUMBERS. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS...COOLER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ISN`T
QUITE BORN OUT...SO HAVE LEFT THE WARMER MAV TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF MEANDERING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF`S SOLUTION OF
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE FA 24-36HRS SLOWER THEN THE GFS
CONTINUES. BOTH ARE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z GUIDANCE...WITH HE
GFS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE GULF
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF NOW SATURDAY MORN. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUES TO STICK WITH THE OP GFS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH A BIT
SLOWER...SO HAVE WENT THAT DIRECTION.

HAVE LITTLE CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL
STORM OF THE YEAR AS FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR TO LIMIT
THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS ARE
IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THEN MOVES THROUGH...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.
WILL START WITH VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THEN MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOW
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL
START WITH A TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN
PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA TODAY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW WHICH THIS RUN MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WESTWARD CROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET...ECMWF
AND GEM DIFFER SOMEWHAT BUT ALL OMINOUSLY DEVELOP A SYSTEM WHICH
EVENTUALLY WINDS UP IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NEAR THE MARINE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS ASIDE...THE RESULT ON THE
MARINE AREA WILL BE TO MAINTAIN A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE GULF OF MEX TUESDAY...THEN
MEANDERS NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 78 55 75 55 77 / 80 40 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 81 60 75 56 81 / 80 50 20 10 20
DESTIN 81 62 75 59 80 / 80 60 30 20 20
EVERGREEN 76 56 72 49 79 / 90 40 10 05 10
WAYNESBORO 71 48 76 46 78 / 90 20 00 00 05
CAMDEN 73 53 73 50 79 / 100 30 05 05 05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


29/16


imgimg

Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 3:43 PM CDT on May 17, 2009


The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued an

* urban and small stream flood advisory for...
Escambia County in northwest Florida...
this includes the city of Pensacola...
Okaloosa County in northwest Florida...
this includes the cities of... Fort Walton Beach... Destin...
Crestview...
Santa Rosa County in northwest Florida...
this includes the city of Navarre...
southern Covington County in south central Alabama...
Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...
this includes the city of Bay Minette...
Mobile County in southwest Alabama...
this includes the cities of... downtown Mobile... Dauphin Island...

* until 630 PM CDT

* at 337 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
heavy rains continued across portions of of the Florida Panhandle
and southwestern Alabama. Radar estimates 2 to 3 inches has fallen
in the past 3 hours across inland sections of the western Florida
Panhandle. Meanwhile... additional heavy rains were developing
across southwest Alabama that will move eastward across the
advisory area late this afternoon and evening.



Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Doppler weather radar has indicated that localized... heavy rains of
1 to 2 inches per hour have fallen over the advisory area. An
additional 1 to 2 inches is possible through the evening. An urban
and small stream flood advisory means the potential has increased
for swollen small stream creek beds and standing water in poor
drainage areas... such as underpasses. Remember... turn around and
don't drown.


Lat... Lon 3029 8812 3033 8826 3098 8841 3110 8761
3100 8759 3100 8670 3124 8670 3130 8626
3046 8641 3044 8658 3042 8657 3041 8652
3041 8642 3040 8642 3025 8796 3035 8783
3067 8800 3025 8806 3024 8824




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.