keithneese's Wunderblog

7/26/2009

By: keithneese, 8:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2009

The weather radio has been going off consistantly this afternoon, and it appears that we have some afternoon thunderstorm action firing up.

Here is our forecast for the next few days as posted on the weather underground webpage:

Today
Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.


Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming around 5 mph overnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.


Monday
Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Southwest winds around 5 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph by afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.



Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming south overnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 262104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
A VERY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE MORE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN A GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID
70S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED
PACKAGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHIFTS A BIT
FARTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FROM THE PLAINS STATES. STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE FLOW A BIT
MORE....KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH...AND MAINTAINING POPS AROUND
SEASONAL...TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...EXCEPT FOR ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AREAS...
KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE MORE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN A GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 74 88 72 87 / 30 60 40 50
PENSACOLA 74 88 73 86 / 30 40 50 40
DESTIN 77 88 76 86 / 30 40 40 40
EVERGREEN 70 88 71 86 / 50 50 50 50
WAYNESBORO 71 88 71 85 / 50 60 60 70
CAMDEN 70 88 72 85 / 50 50 40 60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



I will post a new blog on Monday night. Hope everyone had a great weekend!

July 19 2009

By: keithneese, 9:34 PM GMT on July 19, 2009

It's been a pretty enjoyable day today. It was very cool this morning, nice for a change. I have noticed that the tropical weather blog has heated up on the site; a good deal of discussion about 97L. Earlier today it looked very impressive for a tropical wave, and it continues to look impressive now. I give it a little less than 50% chance of developing, and we will just have to watch it and wait.

Here's the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. No radar link loaded simply because rain is not forecast for us.



Tonight
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.


Monday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west late in the afternoon.

And here is the forecaster discussion:


212
fxus64 kmob 192055
afdmob


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
356 PM CDT sun Jul 19 2009


Short term...tonight through Wednesday night...the frontal boundary
currently extending from the Alabama coastal waters then
northeastward into the northwest Florida Panhandle continues
southward into the Gulf tonight. The front continues to weaken
through Monday night...drifting back to near the coast during the
day then back offshore at night...and eventually dissipates Monday
night. Have kept small probability of precipitation over the northwest Florida Panhandle
tonight for isolated convection lingering along the front...then dry
Monday and Monday night. A series of subtle plains shortwaves move
a weak surface low out of the Southern Plains and to the lower
Mississippi River valley Wednesday night while a light southerly
flow dominates the forecast area supporting isolated sea breeze
convection. Gulf moisture returns to the area Tuesday into
Wednesday with precipitable water values rising to near two inches
over the western portion of the forecast area...a bit drier further
east...near 1.5 inches. Have small probability of precipitation in for the western and
immediate coastal areas on Tuesday where the better moisture will
be located then areawide on Wednesday. Cool temperatures are in
store for the region tonight and Monday night with record or near
lows at Mobile and Pensacola. Temperatures then gradually return to
seasonable nighttime temperatures with near seasonable temperatures
at night. /29


&&


Long term...Thursday through Sunday...a broad upper trough remains
over the eastern half of the states while deep layer ridging
dominates the Gulf. A light southwest flow deep layer flow keeps
abundant Gulf moisture in place over the area and allows for
isolated to scattered sea breeze convection...enhanced by subtle
shortwaves moving through the upper trough. Temperatures will be near
seasonable levels. /29


&&


Marine...a weak front will waffle north and south over Alabama/northwest Florida
coastal waters through Monday. By Tuesday...surface high pressure
off the Atlantic Seaboard regains control...returning a general
southeasterly flow to the area...which will last through middle week.
/16


&&


Aviation [18z issuance]...general VFR conditions expected through
the period...with any chance of thunderstorms and rain expected over eastern-most
sections of the coastal forecast area. /16


&&


Fire weather...the weak frontal located over the Alabama coastal
waters to the northwest Florida Panhandle is slowly shifting
southward but convection in the area and the lack of airmass change
has resulted in dewpoints remaining fairly high over the northwest
Florida Panhandle. As a result...had to drop the red flag warning
for the area. Relative humidities may drop briefly to near critical
levels this afternoon but will otherwise not satisfy duration
requirements. The front will move into the coastal waters tonight
allowing for drier air to flow into the northwest Florida
Panhandle. With seasonable temperatures on Monday...afternoon
relative humidities will drop below critical levels for a marginal
duration over the western Florida Panhandle on Monday. The front
dissipates Monday night and Gulf moisture will return to the area
for Tuesday and Wednesday and keep afternoon relative humidities
above critical levels. /29


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 20
Pensacola 67 91 69 89 / 20 10 10 20
Destin 72 88 72 90 / 20 05 10 20
Evergreen 59 89 59 91 / 10 10 10 10
Waynesboro 57 88 58 89 / 10 10 10 20
Camden 60 89 59 91 / 10 05 10 10


&&


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...Fire Weather Watch from 11 am Monday to 7 PM Monday for the
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa...
and inland Santa Rosa.


MS...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$




Have a great night!!


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.