keithneese's Wunderblog

11/9/09

By: keithneese, 2:55 AM GMT on November 10, 2009

Ida coming in, and the rain has set in for the evening. Everyone stay in and stay dry. Winds are still blustery, but as we know down here, a tropical storm is just a big bad rain storm.

Here's the forecast for tonight:

Tonight
Tropical storm conditions. Rain. East winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts to around 60 mph.


Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain in the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. North winds 40 to 45 mph with gusts to around 60 mph becoming northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Here are the current watches/warnings for our area:

Flood Warning
Statement as of 12:43 PM CST on November 09, 2009


The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Bayou Sara at Saraland
* from late tonight until Tuesday afternoon
* at 7am Monday the stage was... 3.0 feet
* minor flooding is forecast
* flood stage is 4.0 feet
* forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise to
near 4.3 feet by mid morning. The river will fall below flood stage by
late morning Tuesday.
* At 4.0 feet... flooding of streets begins and becomes widespread east of the
Railroad when the level reaches 5 feet.


Flash Flood Watch, Coastal Flood Watch
Statement as of 1:47 PM CST on November 09, 2009


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Alabama and northwest Florida... including the
following areas... in Alabama... Butler... Clarke... Conecuh...
Covington... Crenshaw... Escambia... lower Baldwin... lower
Mobile... Monroe... upper Baldwin... upper Mobile and Wilcox. In
northwest Florida... coastal Escambia... coastal Okaloosa...
coastal Santa Rosa... inland Escambia... inland Okaloosa and
inland Santa Rosa.

* Through Tuesday morning

* a Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include all of southwest
Alabama and northwest Florida through midday Tuesday... due to
excessive rainfall from Ida. Ida is expected to move onshore late
tonight across southern Mobile County. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts can be expected in the watch
area through Tuesday morning.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.







829 am CST sun Nov 8 2009

... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from 6 PM CST this
evening through late Monday night...

A coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from 6 PM CST this
evening through late Monday night.

The combination of strong easterly winds combined with high tide
levels is expected to create tide levels of 2 to 3 feet above
normal. This will create total tide levels of 3 to 4 feet. If Ida
is stronger than currently forecast across the southern Gulf...
the increased swell would cause even higher tide levels than the
current forecast.

Residents living in flood prone areas along the coastal sections
of Mobile and Baldwin counties... including Mobile Bay... along
with coastal sections of northwest Florida should take necessary
precautions to protect life and property in case these high tide
levels are reached.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.




Inland Tropical Wind Warning, Tropical Storm Warning
Statement as of 8:40 PM CST on November 09, 2009


... Tropical Storm Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM CST
Tuesday...
... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...

... New information...
at 8 PM CST... the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near
latitude 29.5 north... longitude 88.5 west... or about 52 miles south
Dauphin Island Alabama. Radar indicates the estimated rate of motion
is to the north-northeast at 20 mph. Based on recent radar
trends... it is apparent that Ida will make landfall late this
evening... mostly likely over coastal Alabama.


... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...
at this time... all storm related preparations should be complete.


... Winds...
tropical storm force wind gusts continue to spread inland into
extreme southwest Alabama and the far western portion of the
northwest Florida Panhandle. A wind gust to 55 mph was reported
earlier this evening near Foley Alabama. This trend of increasing
winds will continue through 10 PM CST with sustained tropical storm
force winds spreading into coastal Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle. The sustained winds will subside below tropical storm
force over extreme southwest Alabama into Tuesday morning then
decrease below tropical storm force over the northwest Florida
Panhandle through the mid afternoon hours on Tuesday. Gusts of 50 to
60 mph will be possible along the coast with gusts to 40 to 50 mph
further inland until the winds subside on Tuesday. Power outages are
a real possibility with Ida tonight... especially near the coast.


... Storm surge and storm tide...
total tide heights of 3 to 5 feet are possible across southern Mobile
and Baldwin counties Alabama. Across the northwest Florida
Panhandle... total tide heights of 2 to 4 feet are anticipated. The
time of astronomical high tide on Tuesday will range from 2 to 5 am
across the region. This will exacerbate storm related flooding due to
tropical storm force winds from Ida during this time. There have
already been reports of minor coastal flooding across Dauphin Island
with water reported from St. Stephens Road to the west end of Dauphin
Island... and water has been reported over roadways at Fort Pickens in
southern Escambia County Florida.


... Inland flooding...
current rainfall rates are no more than one inch per hour but higher
rainfall rates are occurring offshore and will spread inland over the
next few hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southwest
Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle through noon Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches... with locally higher amounts around
8 inches... can be expected. Listen for possible flood warnings for
your location... and be ready to act should flooding occur.


... Tornadoes...
give very stable air near the coast... the tornado threat is low. If a
tornado were to occur it would be in the next few hours near the coast.


... Coastal hazards...
moderate beach erosion is expected to occur from the west end of
Dauphin Island Alabama to Destin Florida. Extremely dangerous rip
currents will occur along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches
through Tuesday afternoon due to high winds and waves. Rip currents
are life-threatening to anyone entering the surf... and swimmers
should not enter the water under any circumstances.








Public Information Statement
Inland Tropical Wind Warning, Tropical Storm Warning
Statement as of 8:40 PM CST on November 09, 2009


... Tropical Storm Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM CST
Tuesday...
... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...

... New information...
at 8 PM CST... the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near
latitude 29.5 north... longitude 88.5 west... or about 52 miles south
Dauphin Island Alabama. Radar indicates the estimated rate of motion
is to the north-northeast at 20 mph. Based on recent radar
trends... it is apparent that Ida will make landfall late this
evening... mostly likely over coastal Alabama.


... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...
at this time... all storm related preparations should be complete.


... Winds...
tropical storm force wind gusts continue to spread inland into
extreme southwest Alabama and the far western portion of the
northwest Florida Panhandle. A wind gust to 55 mph was reported
earlier this evening near Foley Alabama. This trend of increasing
winds will continue through 10 PM CST with sustained tropical storm
force winds spreading into coastal Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle. The sustained winds will subside below tropical storm
force over extreme southwest Alabama into Tuesday morning then
decrease below tropical storm force over the northwest Florida
Panhandle through the mid afternoon hours on Tuesday. Gusts of 50 to
60 mph will be possible along the coast with gusts to 40 to 50 mph
further inland until the winds subside on Tuesday. Power outages are
a real possibility with Ida tonight... especially near the coast.


... Storm surge and storm tide...
total tide heights of 3 to 5 feet are possible across southern Mobile
and Baldwin counties Alabama. Across the northwest Florida
Panhandle... total tide heights of 2 to 4 feet are anticipated. The
time of astronomical high tide on Tuesday will range from 2 to 5 am
across the region. This will exacerbate storm related flooding due to
tropical storm force winds from Ida during this time. There have
already been reports of minor coastal flooding across Dauphin Island
with water reported from St. Stephens Road to the west end of Dauphin
Island... and water has been reported over roadways at Fort Pickens in
southern Escambia County Florida.


... Inland flooding...
current rainfall rates are no more than one inch per hour but higher
rainfall rates are occurring offshore and will spread inland over the
next few hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southwest
Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle through noon Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches... with locally higher amounts around
8 inches... can be expected. Listen for possible flood warnings for
your location... and be ready to act should flooding occur.


... Tornadoes...
give very stable air near the coast... the tornado threat is low. If a
tornado were to occur it would be in the next few hours near the coast.


... Coastal hazards...
moderate beach erosion is expected to occur from the west end of
Dauphin Island Alabama to Destin Florida. Extremely dangerous rip
currents will occur along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches
through Tuesday afternoon due to high winds and waves. Rip currents
are life-threatening to anyone entering the surf... and swimmers
should not enter the water under any circumstances.








Public Information Statement
Inland Tropical Wind Warning, Tropical Storm Warning
Statement as of 8:40 PM CST on November 09, 2009


... Tropical Storm Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM CST
Tuesday...
... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...

... New information...
at 8 PM CST... the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near
latitude 29.5 north... longitude 88.5 west... or about 52 miles south
Dauphin Island Alabama. Radar indicates the estimated rate of motion
is to the north-northeast at 20 mph. Based on recent radar
trends... it is apparent that Ida will make landfall late this
evening... mostly likely over coastal Alabama.


... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...
at this time... all storm related preparations should be complete.


... Winds...
tropical storm force wind gusts continue to spread inland into
extreme southwest Alabama and the far western portion of the
northwest Florida Panhandle. A wind gust to 55 mph was reported
earlier this evening near Foley Alabama. This trend of increasing
winds will continue through 10 PM CST with sustained tropical storm
force winds spreading into coastal Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle. The sustained winds will subside below tropical storm
force over extreme southwest Alabama into Tuesday morning then
decrease below tropical storm force over the northwest Florida
Panhandle through the mid afternoon hours on Tuesday. Gusts of 50 to
60 mph will be possible along the coast with gusts to 40 to 50 mph
further inland until the winds subside on Tuesday. Power outages are
a real possibility with Ida tonight... especially near the coast.


... Storm surge and storm tide...
total tide heights of 3 to 5 feet are possible across southern Mobile
and Baldwin counties Alabama. Across the northwest Florida
Panhandle... total tide heights of 2 to 4 feet are anticipated. The
time of astronomical high tide on Tuesday will range from 2 to 5 am
across the region. This will exacerbate storm related flooding due to
tropical storm force winds from Ida during this time. There have
already been reports of minor coastal flooding across Dauphin Island
with water reported from St. Stephens Road to the west end of Dauphin
Island... and water has been reported over roadways at Fort Pickens in
southern Escambia County Florida.


... Inland flooding...
current rainfall rates are no more than one inch per hour but higher
rainfall rates are occurring offshore and will spread inland over the
next few hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southwest
Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle through noon Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches... with locally higher amounts around
8 inches... can be expected. Listen for possible flood warnings for
your location... and be ready to act should flooding occur.


... Tornadoes...
give very stable air near the coast... the tornado threat is low. If a
tornado were to occur it would be in the next few hours near the coast.


... Coastal hazards...
moderate beach erosion is expected to occur from the west end of
Dauphin Island Alabama to Destin Florida. Extremely dangerous rip
currents will occur along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches
through Tuesday afternoon due to high winds and waves. Rip currents
are life-threatening to anyone entering the surf... and swimmers
should not enter the water under any circumstances.




... Public information statement...

Latest local surface wind observations...

Ft Morgan al... 730 PM NE 35g46kt
Dauphin Island al... 700 PM NNE 30g35kt
Navy Pensacola... 750 PM NE 22g31kt
battle ship Alabama... 802 PM NNE 18kt g28kt
brookley field Mobile al... 802 PM NNE 17g28kt
15 miles south of Gulf Shores al... 750 PM E 33g39kt
Middle Bay light al... 820 PM NNE 32g38kt
5 miles west of Foley al... 635 PM NNE 27g48kt
&&

Ee


Will post again tomorrow. Everyone have a good night!


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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.