keithneese's Wunderblog

June 26 2010

By: keithneese, 9:24 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

Here is the latest on Alex:

Looks like it's going to be a Mexico landfall for this storm. I am still going to monitor, but the models are really coming into more agreement this afternoon.

Here's the 7pmCT update:

...Alex near the coast of Belize...heavy rains spreading into
northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula...


summary of 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...17.4n 88.1w
about 15 mi...25 km se of Belize City
about 75 mi...125 km S of Chetumal Mexico
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/hr
present movement...W or 280 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/hr
minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the islands of roatan...guanaja...and utila.
The government of Honduras has discontinued the tropical storm watch
for the coast of Honduras from tela eastward to Limon.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the coast of Belize and the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico from Chetumal to Cancun

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of Honduras from tela westward to the border of Honduras
and Guatemala

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 88.1 west. Alex is
moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next two days. On this
track...Alex will move inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
this evening...move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and
Sunday...and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday afternoon
or Sunday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected while the cyclone moves over the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Sunday. Some strengthening is
forecast after Alex moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...northern Guatemala...much
of Honduras and Belize through Sunday evening. Isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible over mountainous areas. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Wind...tropical storm force winds are affecting portions of Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning area.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Here is the 4pmCT discussion from NHC:

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on June 26, 2010

an Air Force plane reached Alex and found that the cyclone was a
little stronger...with a minimum pressure of 996 mb and
flight-level winds of 59 knots on the south side. There were
several SFMR values around 55 knots...and this is the value used
for the initial intensity. This intensity is also in agreement with
the latest T-numbers which reached 3.0 and 3.5 on the Dvorak scale.
There is little room for Alex to intensify much more since a
portion of the circulation is already over land. Alex is expected
to weaken over the Yucatan Peninsula...but once in the Gulf of
Mexico it should begin to re-strengthen. Alex has a couple of days
over water and in a favorable environment before it reaches the
Mexican coast in around 96 hours.

The center was very difficult to locate earlier today but now that
the storm is better organized and the hurricane hunter plane
provided a good fix...the initial motion is more reliable and it is
estimated at 280 degrees at 10 knots. A strong subtropical ridge
extending from the Bahamas across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
to keep Alex on a general west-to west-northwest track over the
southern Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. A decrease in
forward speed is anticipated while Alex is located in the southern
Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weaken a little bit. The
confidence in the forecast is high because most of the dynamical
models are in good agreement and have shifted farther south joining
the reliable ECMWF.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 17.3n 87.8w 55 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 17.7n 89.2w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 27/1800z 19.0n 91.0w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 28/0600z 20.0n 92.5w 45 kt...over water
48hr VT 28/1800z 20.5n 93.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 21.5n 95.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 22.0n 98.0w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 01/1800z 22.0n 101.0w 20 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Avila



Here are the latest computer models:




On top of all of this there is a very impressive wave over Africa, we will have to wait and see what happens with it. It looks like were are in for a long hurricane season.


img



June 25 2010

By: keithneese, 2:34 AM GMT on June 26, 2010

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we go. TD1, soon to be TS Alex has formed in the Carribean sea. I'm watching it with great interest at this time, especially with the oil spill in the GOMEX. Even if this storm doesn't do anything with our area, it's a good time to go ahead and make sure you are prepared, as we are in for a long hurricane season.

Here are the latest model runs. The models are very divergent at this time, so only time will tell what this system is going to do. Right now, it is forecast to cross the Yucatan and enter the Bay of Campeche sometime in the next 48-72 hours, according to the NHC. After that, it would appear to be anyone's guess! Gotta love these tropical systems.

img


And here is the current forecast track from earlier this afternoon. There will be updated information around 10 pm.

img

As for our area for tonight and tomorrow, here is the forecast:

Rest of Tonight
Partly cloudy early in the evening then clearing. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Lows 73 to 78. South winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. Northeast winds around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Heat index readings 105 to 110.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 74 to 79. South winds 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight.

And in case you are curious, here is the forecast discussion from our local NWS office. Everyone have a good night, and I will update again tomorrow.

664
fxus64 kmob 252340 aaa
afdmob


Area forecast discussion...aviation update
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
640 PM CDT Friday Jun 25 2010


Aviation....aviation (00z issuance)...isolated convection northestern rtes
will end shortly after sunset. Removed cumulonimbus from tafs this evening as
buildups now north of the taf sites. VFR conditions with mainly clear
skies will persist through the overnight with light onshore flow
becoming l/v to light offshore late tonight with land breeze
development. Flow becoming onshore late morning as seabreeze
redevelops with isolated afternoon convection expected Sat at the
taf sites and have cumulonimbus appended to cover any isolated storms that may
develop. /Sk


Short term...a few thunderstorms firing on the seabreeze prompting
a quick update to add slight chance and chance probability of precipitation for a few hours.
Thunderstorms are not all that impressive...with a few lightning
strikes and brief heavy downpours. Storms will be short lived.
Forecast is in good shape.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CDT Friday Jun 25 2010/


Synopsis...
nearly stationary 850 mb-500 mb high pressure centered over southeast MS/SW Alabama has
kept much of the area dry today. As a result...convection has been
confined to along and north of I-20 and southern Georgia where better low level
moisture convg exists. Unfortunately...the lack of cloud cover and
thunderstorms has resulted in another very warm day across the area.
20z temperatures were in the Lower/Middle 90s with heat indices around 100f.


&&


Short term (tonight through monday)...
high pressure will move little over the next several days as the
main storm track remains across the northern Continental U.S.. as has been mentioned
the past few days...changes in the local weather will become largely
dependant on the area of low pressure currently between Grand Cayman
and the northern coast of Honduras which will likely become a tropical
depression within the next 12-18 hours. Models continue to be all
over the place with this potential tropical system making forecasts
along the Gulf Coast very challenging at this time. Have decided to
use a blend of the 12z/25 NAM/European model (ecmwf) for latest forecast which is
handling the current weather the best.


In the short term period...upper ridge of high pressure will gradually
break down as remnant energy from current convection wraps around
the high. Saturday should still be mainly dry but by Sunday and
Monday...multiple boundary interaction and deeper moisture will
play a larger role in generating isolated-scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the
area. It will continue to remain very warm with daytime temperatures
generally in the middle 90s and heat indices ranging from 100-105f each
afternoon.


Aforementioned tropical low will likely track across the Yucatan
Sunday then over the Bay of Campeche Monday/Tuesday. Where it GOES
from there remains a big question so will not speculate at this time
until further guidance/model consistency exists. /83/


Long term (tuesday through friday)...
forecast this period will again be largely dependant on track
of potential tropical system that is currently in the western
Caribbean. Made no changes to the forecast at this time but medium range
models are showing a deepening trough moving across the eastern
Continental U.S. By the middle to end of next week which could send a cold
front toward the area. Chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will increase along
and ahead of the front as a result and slightly cooler conditions
will exist. Nadler.83


&&


Aviation (18z issuance)...generally VFR conditions will continue at
the terminals through the period. The best chances of thunderstorms
will be north of the terminals during the afternoon. The
thunderstorm chances at the taf sites is low enough to not mention
at this time and will maintain scattered cumulonimbus at all sites through 00z
tonight and again after 15z Sat. /13


&&


Marine...high pressure will continue to dominate the north
central Gulf into early next week. A tropical wave will move into
the extreme southern Gulf over the weekend increasing the pressure
gradient and resulting in higher east to southeast winds. However
winds are expected to remain below advisory levels. Increasing
swells from the tropical wave will also affect the marine area
over the weekend into early next week. /13


&&


Fire weather...
high pressure will remain in control along the Gulf Coast resulting
in dry and stable conditions through this weekend. Surface and
transport winds will be relatively light which will affect favorable
mixing. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon...especially across the Florida Panhandle
and areas north and east of Mobile Bay. Locally heavy rain and brief
strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 73 96 74 94 / 30 05 10 20
Pensacola 76 93 77 93 / 05 10 10 20
Destin 78 91 78 90 / 05 20 10 20
Evergreen 73 96 73 94 / 20 10 10 20
Waynesboro 69 97 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
Camden 72 97 72 94 / 30 10 10 10
Crestview 72 97 72 93 / 30 20 10 30


&&


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$





June 24 2010

By: keithneese, 1:31 AM GMT on June 25, 2010

Well, things are getting interesting in the tropics. We have 93L in the Carribean, and it looks like it's going to move into the GOMEX at some point. There is a lot of uncertainty with the track as this image shows:

img

Here locally it's hot, and it's dry. There are some rain chances moving in for the weekend, but the highest rain chance as of this writing is only 40%.

Here is the forecast for the tonight and tomorrow:

Rest of Tonight
Sunny early in the evening becoming mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Friday
Mostly sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Heat index readings 105 to 110.


Here is the forecast discussion from the NWS Mobile office. Notice even they are taking notice of 93L:

182
fxus64 kmob 250010 aaa
afdmob


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
710 PM CDT Thursday Jun 24 2010


Short term...a few thunderstorms fired along colliding boundaries
across western Alabama/eastern MS. Probability of precipitation were updated to reflect this
activity...which should be short lived and die off with the loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape.


Aviation....aviation (00z issuance)...very isolated convection north of the
seabreeze front will end shortly after sunset. Removed cumulonimbus from tafs
this evening as buildups now north of the taf sites. VFR conditions with
mainly clear skies will persist through the overnight with light
onshore flow becoming l/v to light offshore late tonight with land
breeze development. Flow becoming onshore late morning as seabreeze
redevelops with only isolated afternoon/early evening convection
expected again Friday and have cumulonimbus appended to cover any isolated storms
that may develop. /Sk


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CDT Thursday Jun 24 2010/


Synopsis...
high pressure centered over southern Alabama/southern Georgia has resulted in dry and
stable conditions across the forecast area this afternoon. A couple
of clusters of storms exist around peripheral of upper high /over central
Georgia and along the Panhandle coast of FL/. Warm/muggy afternoon exists
across SW Alabama/southeast MS and the Florida Panhandle with temperatures generally in the
Lower/Middle 90s. Dewpoints around 70f have yielded heat index readings
around 100f.


&&


Short term (tonight through sunday)...
prevailing subsidence along with eventual loss of daytime heating
will diminish any threat of storms across the area early this
evening. Over the next couple days /through Saturday/...the position
of the elongated upper high will not move much. Diurnally-driven isolated
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will exist but most areas will remain dry.
Persistent min/maximum temperatures will exist with lows in the lower to middle 70s
and highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will generally
range in the 100-105f range during the afternoon.


Tropical wave currently situated between Jamaica and Central
America will gradually drift westward over the next 24-48 hours.
There is a chance for further development/better organization and
it is moving over a more favorably-sheared environment (weaker winds
aloft). Operational models all show the wave moving over the Yucatan
by Sunday and eventually into the Bay of Campeche early next week.
Little change in the sensible weather across the area will occur
Sunday with a continued threat of isolated-scattered afternoon thunderstorms.


Long term (monday through thursday)...
main challenge this period continues to center around forecast track
and intensity of current tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
Model consensus remains inconsistent as short-range models begin to
take a Stab at what this potential system will do. Given overall
longwave pattern and middle level steering winds...feel fairly
confident that wave will gradually intensify somewhere over the Bay
of Campeche Monday/Tuesday and track northwest toward the Mexican/
south Texas coast.


Closer to home...the area will see an increase in moisture through
the period as a deepening southeast flow develops. The 12z/24 GFS
wants to amplify a wave just off the Alabama/Florida coast on Monday...taking
it northeast across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Have a hard
time believing this due to the inconsistent run-to-run model
performance and presence of potential tropical system in the western
Gulf. Therefore...did not make too many changes to the extended
forecast. Persistent pattern will continue with a chance for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will remain seasonal through
the period. Nadler.83


&&


Marine...surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the
southeast states will maintain a light and variable wind through
Saturday morning. A more established easterly to southeasterly wind
flow will occur over the remainder of the weekend into next
week...with a seas building to 3 to 4 feet as a tropical disturbance
moves across the southern Gulf. /13


&&


Fire weather...
high pressure will remain in control across the southeast states
and Gulf Coast region through Saturday. Most areas will remain dry
and warm with relatively light surface and transport winds.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
as weak upper level energy interacts with a moist and marginally
unstable environment. The storms will be short-lived and capable
of producing brief erratic wind gusts.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 74 94 74 94 / 20 20 10 20
Pensacola 76 92 77 94 / 05 20 10 20
Destin 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 10 20
Evergreen 73 95 72 95 / 10 30 10 30
Waynesboro 70 95 70 95 / 20 20 10 30
Camden 72 95 72 94 / 10 20 10 30
Crestview 71 96 71 97 / 10 20 10 20


&&


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$











Everyone have a good night. Here's a radar link, just in case we get lucky and get a little bit of rain tomorrow.

img

June 15 2010

By: keithneese, 1:56 AM GMT on June 16, 2010

92L has fizzled, with a little bit of convection firing up tonight. The NHC is dropped it down to yellow, so it doesn't appear to be anything to be concerned about.

Here's the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Have a great night!


Tonight
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Lows in the mid 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.


Wednesday
Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.


A radar loop, just in case it does rain...

img

6/13/2010

By: keithneese, 1:48 AM GMT on June 14, 2010

img


Here we go ladies and gentleman, looks like Hurricane Season 2010 is getting started. 92L was very impressive earlier today. DMin is taking a toll on the system, but it still bears watching to see what it will decide to do.

Around here I think the appropriate question is, is it hot enough fer ya?

Gonna stay hot this week, but at least there is some chance of rain coming back in. Ya'll keep cool, and have a great night!

K



img


Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday
Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Highest heat index readings around 105 in the afternoon.


Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.


249
fxus64 kmob 132343 aaa
afdmob


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
640 PM CDT sun Jun 13 2010


Aviation [00z issuance]...convection over the Florida Panhandle is
forecast to weaken through 03z with left over middle to high level
cloud debris sliding westward across the Gulf Coast. VFR conditions
expected through 18z Monday. Due to afternoon heating and instability expect
towering cumulus/cumulonimbus to form up in a moist environment by middle afternoon. A tempo group
mentioned for thunderstorms and rain 20-23z with 20-30 knots of wind gusts possible in
any of these. /10


... Discussion.........................


Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...the upper ridge
centered over the region weakens through Monday as a system over the
Western Plains moves into the northern plains. A series of
shortwaves cresting the upper ridge move a surface low off the
northeast coast into the Atlantic meanwhile with a surface trough
meandering over the southeast states. The current surface analysis
shows the surface trough located from coastal Georgia which is
progressively weaker further west across the Florida Panhandle and
blends into a sea breeze boundary over coastal Alabama. The weak
surface trough lingers over the southern portion of the forecast area
on Monday and the weaker upper trough allows for slightly cooler
temperatures aloft. With daytime highs continuing to run 6-8
degrees above seasonable levels and the slightly more favorable
convective conditions...will stay with slight chance probability of precipitation for the
afternoon hours. Heat indices will be high again and just below
heat advisory criteria with values topping out between 103-107. The
upper ridge continues to weaken through Wednesday as the northern
plains system moves off across the northeast states while the weak
surface trough continues to linger mainly east of the forecast area.
Will have low end chance probability of precipitation for the forecast area both days for
scattered convection developing along the sea breeze and the weak
inland trough. Heat indices will be elevated again on Tuesday with
the afternoon maximums between 102-106 then will be lower on
Wednesday as temperatures moderate with the weakening subsidence
aloft. /29


&&


Long term (thursday through sunday)...the system over the northeast
states moves off into the Atlantic leaving a broad upper ridge in
control of much of the southern states through Sunday. The weak
surface trough continues to linger over the area through Saturday then
finally dissipates on Sunday with an otherwise southerly flow
promoted over the region from a surface ridge over the northern
Gulf. Temperatures continue to be generally 3-5 degrees above
seasonable levels through the period with humid conditions allowing
for heat indices to top out in the low 100s in some locations. /29


&&


Marine...broad weak high pressure will continue to encompass much
of the southeast states through the upcoming week. This results in a
general light onshore flow with seas remaining 2 feet or less.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase as the
week progresses...especially over the near shore waters and area
bays. 34/jfb


&&


Fire weather...the weak surface trough lingers over the southeast
states through Wednesday with small rain chances gradually
increasing through middle week. Hot and humid conditions continue
through middle week with afternoon relative humidities remaining above
critical levels. /29


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 75 95 74 93 / 10 20 20 30
Pensacola 78 93 77 93 / 10 20 20 30
Destin 80 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 30
Evergreen 72 96 72 95 / 20 20 20 40
Waynesboro 70 97 70 94 / 10 20 20 30
Camden 73 97 72 95 / 10 20 20 30
Crestview 71 96 72 96 / 20 20 20 30


&&


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$


















The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.