keithneese's Wunderblog

Tropics Watching and Local Weather for 8/30-8/31/2010

By: keithneese, 1:19 AM GMT on August 31, 2010

Major Hurricane Earl:

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Newly formed Tropical Storm Fiona:

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I'm also watching a wave off the coast of Africa. Look for it to be designated as an AOI in the next day or so.


Local Radar:

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Local Forecast:

Tonight
Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy late in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the night. Lows in the mid 70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Tuesday
Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Local forecast discussion for this evening:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
319 PM CDT Monday Aug 30 2010


Short term...(tonight through Thursday night)a weakness
aloft(trough) in between the upper high centers over the
middle-Atlantic and Texas has kept enough lift/instability in area
along with a moist atmosphere to continue the scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms today. They will be diminishing this
evening but expect more development late tonight and into Tuesday
morning...mostly over the western half. The weak trough aloft will
drift slowly west as the high pressure over the middle-Atlantic expands
in size. Do not have any rain for Wednesday night into Thursday
night as ridge build southwest bringing a drier and a more stable
air mass into the region. High temperatures will be on the increase
with the drier air and should be in the low to middle 90s by Thursday.
/11


Long term...(friday through monday)a return to slightly above
normal highs through this period with low to some middle 90s.
Convection should be confined to mainly scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Probability of precipitation may need to be increased a
bit for Saturday as latest guidance shows a surface trough easing
south into the area but will leave the 20 percenters in for now.
/11


&&


Marine...high pressure is forecast to hold into the southeast
through Thursday before breaking down into the weekend as a frontal
boundary sinks into the deep south. Coverages of showers/thunderstorms will
move lower through middle week as deep layer drying moves in from the
east and northeast. Enhanced subsidence from Hurricane Earl moving
north northwest off or near the middle Atlantic coast brings rain
chances to near zero on Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms re-enters the
forecast Friday and Sat. A light to moderate easterly flow is forecast
through middle week then with the front easing down into the deep south
by the close of the week...a varying...light north to southwest flow
is expected at the end of the period. Seas show a subsiding trend to
close out the week. /10




Aviation [30.18z taf issuance]...latest data indicates moisture
convergence increasing gradually over the Gulf Coast. The
environment will be unstable through 00z to support mentioning thunderstorms and rain.
Could see some MVFR ceilings/visibilities and brief strong wind gusts in afternoon
thunderstorms and rain. VFR conditions expected after 00z with a light east/northeast
wind flow. /10




&&


Fire weather...should begin to see a less showers by Tuesday
afternoon as drier air begins to work into the area from the
northeast. Middle-week to late week will see some humidity to 40
percent except along the coast. Easterly winds the next few
days...generally less than 10 knots at the 20 foot level...turning
southeast by Wednesday.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 72 88 71 90 / 30 30 20 20
Pensacola 75 88 74 91 / 30 20 20 20
Destin 75 87 76 91 / 30 10 20 10
Evergreen 68 89 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
Waynesboro 68 90 68 91 / 20 20 20 20
Camden 68 90 68 92 / 10 10 10 05
Crestview 69 89 68 93 / 30 10 20 10


&&


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$













I will update again tomorrow. Good night all!

Local Weather and Tropics for 8/29-8/30/2010

By: keithneese, 1:30 AM GMT on August 30, 2010

Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 1:08 PM CDT on August 29, 2010


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday afternoon...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Alabama... northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi... including the following areas... in Alabama...
Escambia... Baldwin... Mobile. In northwest Florida... Escambia...
Okaloosa and Santa Rosa. In southeast Mississippi... George and
stone.

* Through Monday afternoon

* rainfall up to 5 inches locally has occurred in the last couple of
days. An additional 1 to 3 inches is possible over the next 24 to
36 hours in some locations.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

Tonight
Cloudy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the mid 70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Monday
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.


Radar loop:

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Forecaster Discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
308 PM CDT sun Aug 29 2010


Short term...(sunday night through Wednesday night)surface trough
remains along the northern Gulf Coast in conjunction with a broad
upper trough extending east/west across the area. Deep moisture
continues to be drawn from the Gulf and over the surface trough.
This will keep the risk of localized heavy rain across the southern
third of the area into Monday morning. Will continue the Flash Flood
Watch...some areas near the coast have already received in excess of
5 inches over the last few days. Greatest risk for flooding will be
with training cells. The expansive high over the Middle-Atlantic States
will ridge to the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday...bringing a drier
air mass into the region by middle week. Highest probability of precipitation will be over the
southwest and coastal areas. With the drier air will come increasing
temperatures with highs back into the lower 90s by Wednesday.
Coolest night time readings to the north and northeast. /11


Long term...(thursday through sunday) the middle-Atlantic high
pressure area will nudge southwest to the middle south by late week.
This will bring drier air with warmer day time temperatures and
slightly cooler night time temperatures to the area...along with
lower rain chances but still a slight chance along the coast. /11


&&


Aviation [29.18z issuance]...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possibly down to
IFR levels at times in convection. High pressure over the middle
Atlantic favors an east/southeast wind flow between 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts through 00z. Light winds becoming east/NE late tonight then increase
10-15 kts and gusty after 12z Monday. /10


&&


Marine...will maintain the Small Craft Advisory in effect through
Monday am for moderate/strong easterly component to the winds and seas
5 to 7 feet...out of respect for the forecast fetch. A weak trough
of surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi River Delta in
the near term lifts northwest. The trough becomes absorbed in the
flow around a high pressure system over the middle Atlantic and
southeast early in the week. The high to the east will be strongest
for the first half of the week before weakening the latter half.
Thus...a moderate to strong easterly wind flow over the marine area
is forecast through middle week...then decreasing. The
persistent...moderate easterly fetch allows seas to hold in the 4 to
6 feet range through middle week before subsiding to around 2 feet by
Friday. /10




&&


Fire weather...another 24 hours of moist weather...at least over
the southern sections. Northern areas will see spotty showers and
thunderstorms. Winds remain easterly until turning southeast by
Tuesday. Drier air starts filtering in from the northeast on Tuesday
with the driest air arriving middle to late week. Don't believe air
mass is dry enough for any fire weather watches but will be much
drier than the last several days. /11


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 72 86 71 89 / 50 60 30 40
Pensacola 74 86 73 89 / 60 60 30 30
Destin 75 85 75 87 / 60 50 30 30
Evergreen 71 85 69 89 / 50 40 20 20
Waynesboro 70 87 69 90 / 50 50 20 30
Camden 71 86 69 89 / 40 30 10 20
Crestview 71 85 69 90 / 50 50 20 20


&&


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM Monday for the following zones:
Escambia...lower Baldwin...lower Mobile...upper Baldwin...
and upper Mobile.


Florida...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM Monday for the following zones:
coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...coastal Santa Rosa...
inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa...and inland Santa Rosa.


MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM Monday for the following zones:
George...and stone.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am Monday for the following zones:
coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 nm...
coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 20
nm...Mobile Bay...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from
20 to 60 nm...and waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS
from 20 to 60 nm.


&&


$$





Earl:

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97L:

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One model is projecting 97L to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Sept 8. We will have to watch to see if this pans out.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.