keithneese's Wunderblog

8/28/14

By: keithneese, 12:21 AM GMT on August 29, 2014

Had a prolonged shower out on Airport Blvd today, at Providence Hospital. Tonight seems to be much cooler than it has been over the last week, which is a nice change.

Currently I'm watching the area of low pressure that is in the Caribbean just south of the island of Hispaniola. I don't forsee much development in the near term, as in the next couple of days. However, when it approaches either the Bay of Campeche, or the GOMEX, then it may be something to watch.

Here's the forecast discussion for the Mobile area:

000
FXUS64 KMOB 290000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION [00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 73 91 75 89 74 / 30 50 40 60 30
PENSACOLA 75 90 79 88 77 / 10 50 40 60 30
DESTIN 77 89 79 87 79 / 10 50 40 60 30
EVERGREEN 66 95 72 90 71 / 05 30 30 60 30
WAYNESBORO 66 93 72 89 71 / 05 30 30 60 40
CAMDEN 66 95 72 89 71 / 05 20 30 60 30
CRESTVIEW 67 94 74 89 72 / 05 40 30 60 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




It's looking to be a wet holiday weekend here. Rain chances will begin to ramp up tomorrow and will likely be at their highest on Saturday, from the latest model runs. Hopefully, the rain will stay away for any labor day plans for Monday, but it may not be a bad idea to have alternative plans just in case. We all know how storms can pop up here on the Gulf Coast in the summer.

Here is the forecast from NWS Mobile for the upcoming weekend:

Friday 80% Precip.
Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 86F. Winds ESE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Friday Night 80% Precip.
Scattered thunderstorms in the evening, then mainly cloudy overnight with thunderstorms likely. Low 76F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday
08/30
87 | 77 °F
Saturday 80% Precip.
Thunderstorms likely. High 87F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday Night 20% Precip.
Considerable cloudiness. Low 77F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mp


Hope everyone has a good night, and try to stay dry tomorrow!

Keith


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

keithneese's Wunderblog

About keithneese

I'm a ham radio operator, and I love weather! I love to study hurricanes, and severe weather interests me. I'm located on Halls Mill Rd.