WU thoughts posting 1st blog

First things, first.

I've been a member here for a couple of years now, since before Katrina. This is a great site, very educational and informative. Of course, I am very novice to all of this cyclogenesis, but have learned a great deal from the wonderful fellow bloggers on WU. So, with creating my first attempt at a "blog" I thought it necessary to share a few things first.

There are many here with their own great blogs and websites, and I appreciate them and I want to say, THANK YOU! You're a terrific group and I have to add somewhat "addictive."

I know I've asked some elementary questions; but nearly always someone has been patient and gracious enough to take the time to answer and explain the topic. I beg your forgiveness if my lack of understanding, impatience and sometimes frustration have offended any of you. It is not my intention to be argumentative as I have a great deal of respect for most everyone here.

I sometimes have a self-conception as a defender of the newbies, especially the ones who ask questions and like myself, make mistakes and mis-statements. Having said that, please understand if I speak up in their regard sometimes. It's nothing personal, I just know how they feel. They simply want to learn, participate and occasionally receive some validation.

Of course this blog gets very opinionated sometimes when it comes to weather and especially politics of sorts. I have abstained from my personal political opinions, choosing not to litter the blog with them. However, I have made remarks on occasion to posted weather-related politics. And to my own discord, wish that I hadn't, as invariably it all ends up in trouble. I for one will try to refrain and promote better harmony. Until now, there hasn't been a great deal of active, tropical weather to discuss and I think we all meander off-topic at times. We're all different and consequently there will be different opinions on certain subjects. I can and will respect that, but I also expect the same.

It bothers me that the NHC, this blog and the public has had to endure this "director" dilemma. As Toffler said "change" is imminent. And so now, the NHC will also undergo change. Let's hope with all that has happened there is a resolve that will find a "better" NHC, as they are the "beacon" that drives public awareness and safety.

I welcome any comments, criticisms, suggestions or corrections. If you have any questions, I'll try and answer them in a timely, courteous and gentleman-like manner. If I don't know the answer I'll say so and also try to find the answer. Again, thanks for taking the time to read my first blog and mostly I extend a heart-felt "thank you" for being a terrific weather and WU companion!

Many kudos to you all!!!
MLC




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CAUTION: (lol) This is a WIP (work in progress) and coming from a novice and someone who also has a demanding occupation. So, it may take some time to refine it so that it is hopefully at least "digestible" and "heart-burn" free. Also, please, ALWAYS FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL "AUTHORTIES" FOR STORM INFORMATION AND INSTRUCTIONS. Anyway, so here goes now, Enter-At-Your-Own-Risk! lol

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CAPE VERDE storms and SAL

(Preface)
In recent weeks the blog has been looking for when and where 97L will form. Now it has and it's a fish! Now, where will 98L form. I say, our eAtl wave or maybe a sfc low coming off the SA coast.

96L was sheared away, but it became what many of us thought might be our first Verde storm of the season. It wasn't and since then, our interests should turn mostly towards the Atlantic and Cape Verde systems.

I'm going to make an attempt to show current conditions, study SAL and report its effects on developing storms. It'll not be comprehensive from the beginning obviously; but, I will attempt to post or re-post at least some SAL information as frequently as possible and as available.

Current CV Waves
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT sun Jul 22 2007
...Tropical waves...
tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands along 27w S of 18n
moving W 10-15 kt. The wave is fairly well organized with
cyclonic turning covering a broad area. A 1010 mb low is
embedded on the wave axis near 13n27w. Scattered moderate
convection is confined to the ITCZ from 10n-12n between 22w-28w.


Latest Infrared Shortwave


Personal Observation/Opinion
With fair organization and cyclonic turning already, this wave could be 98L within 48-60 hours. SAL is located mostly to the north of the system and while there is SAL further west in front of it, there is room for some development and can likely survive any further dust interaction. There is a surface low that has dropped to 1010 mbs. There is low shear, but the latest surface map doesn't have the 30 kt winds like it did earlier. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the night. But, a lower pressure I think means things are trying to develop.

Direction is to the west and with some strengthening could escape the ITCZ which currently drops further southwards. If pressure continues to drop, I think we'll have a possible invest sometimes late Monday or Tuesday.

Latest Surface Map


CURRENT DUST LOOPS
There are several links to SAL, but EUMETSAT is my favorite. For me it shows a more true, actual view of the dust which is in pink. The links also show airmass and fog. These views appear to be "dimensional" and while SAL mostly occurs at the surface or low levels, if you'll take a look, it also shows orange and red, depicting a look at mid and upper level convection. For me this is a good first way to look at the layers of any developing CV storm. If you've a different link that can better represent SAL presence combined with convection, please advise me here and I'll post it!

EUMETSAT (dust angle 1)
EUMETSAT (dust angle 2)



REAL-TIME SAL satellite imagery for tracking can be found here, too.



This navy microvap shot shows that there is more dry air and possibly less dust than may have been considered. Some moisture is trying to build back in at about 12n and westward in front of the wave.

There is still dry air and some dust to its north and some also to the west. It continues to hug the Itcz for moisture and is racing westwards toward the islands at 25 kts and also has become more perpendicular in its trek.

There is some visible mid to upper rotation near 11n,32w. However, it's still got a long way to reach invest status as most of the convection is to the southern most part of the wave and is not very well organized.

I still give it a reasonable chance for development if can make it through the remaining dry air and find the islands. Lots of vapor there. That is JMHO.





CURRENT MID LEVELS WATER VAPOR
Here's the current view of water vapor at the mid levels from the cimss. So, we see SAL also penetrates the mid-levels and less at the upper levels. Notice the pocket of dust(orange in this pic)in the middle of the Atl. Dust was considerably heavier a few weeks ago when 96L was trying to form.

So, what is SAL? How does it effect storms?

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall and usually moves out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The SAL usually extends between 5,000-20,000 ft (1500-6000 m) in the atmosphere and is associated with large amounts of mineral dust, dry air (~50% less moisture than a typical tropical sounding), and strong winds (~25-55 mph or ~10-25 m/s).

The SAL has been shown to have significant negative impact on tropical cyclone intensity. Its dry air can act to weaken a tropical cyclone by inhibiting updrafts in the storm, while its strong winds can substantially increase the vertical wind shear in and around the storm environment. It is not yet clear what effect the SAL's dust has on tropical cyclone intensity, though some studies have suggested that it too may have a negative impact on intensification.

The SAL can cover an area the size of the continental U.S. and has been tracked as far west as the Caribbean Sea, Central America, and the Gulf of Mexico.
--contributed by Jason Dunion and submitted by WU's Hipdeep1



...more coming soon!

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TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE

For some of the best info on Hurricane Preparedness, please visit Patrap's Blog. He's a great poster on WU and likes to stress preparedness and safety!

StormJunkie also has a great website with tons of great tropical information and links. He's also a great "go to" for your questions.

StormW has a "top of the line" analysis in his blog. It's updated everyday except Sundays and compiles a fierce, in-depth study of current conditions and sharp observations! It's a "must-stop-by" and check out!

Another excellent blogger is at Jphurricane's blog. Helpful always, and I understand is about to attend meteorological studies! A good guy to ask questions, too. You can tell it's in his blood.

Drakoen's blog explains cyclogenesis and has a host of terms defined. He's also great for answering questions and stays constantly on top of developing conditions. He's also probably one of the best posters of current pics on the main blog and he can post them quickly when a topic arises!

Adrian's website which offers alot of useful info on the tropics from tropical models to satellite imagery. Always VERY helpful with questions!!!