moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

Global Warming - "REALLY" caused by this?

By: moonlightcowboy, 12:07 AM GMT on October 17, 2007

With all the recent hoopla about Global Warming, I listened to this program a few weeks ago and found it completely interesting and thought it needed further advancement! So, with the great help of SouthernLady, we've managed a little parody on the subject.



JUST HIT THE "PLAY" BUTTON ABOVE!


...PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals), and the President and Founder, Ingrid Newkirk, along with a report from the UN, which states as the #1 cause of Global Warming is "factory farming of animals", or manure!

It's hard to believe this organization benefits from Federal funding! Don't get me wrong, I like animals; but, strongly disagree with these views and how I understand (or don't) the issues of global warming.

For example:

1. How many "people" are on the earth now? About 6.5 billion? Certainly, there aren't nearly as many cows and factory farming, producing nearly as much manure (BS) as us humans!

2. "Insects"--uuuuummm, don't they produce manure and methane, too? And, uuuuummm, aren't there about 40 cazillion more of them than us, or cows?

3. What about marine life? Does their methane warm the oceans???

IMO, this organization needs another mission statement. Taking care of animals is quite honorable, but leave the global warming issues to the politics of the day and to the scientists who try to compare recent data with the good ol' earth's history, which has been here through the ages, and not similarly studied and scrutinized.

---a parody? satire? comical? ---maybe just a little tropical "relief" if you'll pardon the pun!!! They say that laughter is good for the soul! lol...we hope you enjoyed it!



(SPECIAL thanks to SouthernLady for helping create the video and adding the sound effects and for the satirical concepts! The sound effects and video are not part of the original episode that aired. Only the audio of Newkirk and Maher are original to the video.)


12, 24, 36, 48 hour SFC maps

By: moonlightcowboy, 5:41 AM GMT on October 15, 2007

Well, the trough running through the Caribbean has dumped major rainfall on parts of CA and caused extreme flooding in Haiti causing several deaths. Mexico and Central America have had more than their share of pain and grief this season. Haiti is not out of the woods yet.

If you look at the surface maps, it appears that the se may be going to eventually going to get some much-needed rain. As far as the tropics, some of the models are still suggesting development, but no cyclogenesis is immediately forecast. Hopefully, any disturbances will just bring a slow-moving, thorough soaking. There may also be some severe weather with the front crossing the CONUS this week, so be cognizant of approaching bad weather. AND, HAVE A GREAT WEEK, EVERYONE!

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12 HOUR FORECAST

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24 HOUR FORECAST


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36 HOUR FORECAST

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48 HOUR FORECAST


"Hold down the fort and keep the gates closed!"

MLCgoodnight4.gif

Have a good week, all!
MLC

BAD CALL by officials

By: moonlightcowboy, 9:16 PM GMT on October 13, 2007

The last pass play was a bad call from the officials in the Ole Miss/BAMA game. The receiver, Shay Hodge, was either "forced" out of bounds, or it was "pass interference." In either case it would have been the Rebel's ball near the goal line.

Although "bad calls" are "part" of the game itself, it doesn't nullify the fact that there would have likely been a different outcome in the game.

GO REBELS! GR8 game!

http://www.nmnathletics.com.edgesuite.net/pics30/200/KT/KTHSJYMXQZJEVZT.20071013203415.jpg

SL's daughter thru ER surgery

By: moonlightcowboy, 3:22 AM GMT on October 13, 2007

Just got off the phone (10:00p central here) with SouthernLady. Earlier this evening, her daughter was rushed to Wesley hospital in Hattiesburg, MS by her husband. According to SL, it was quite serious and she was thankful that they didn't waste any time getting to the ER.

As many of SL's friends know, her daughter was having problems with a pregnancy and this evening she mis-carried. SL made it to the hospital in time to be with her and with this last phone call, said that they are on their way home for recovery. I believe she plans on staying there at her daughter's house with her for several days until her daughter is feeling and doing better.

SL asked me to convey her appreciation for those that have been concerned and to say thanks for the thoughts and prayers.

And, I thank you, too. SL's a sweet person and she's very appreciative of her WU friends.

MLC

For PATRAP and SJ! How about it? TIA

By: moonlightcowboy, 6:08 AM GMT on October 11, 2007

1105. moonlightcowboy 6:02 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
1026. mississippiwx23 3:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Lack luster season with two category 5s. I just don't understand how people can say that.

It really is amazing how all that convection, in under very weak shear, hasn't developed. I still think something might spin itself up over the next week. But wow, it is amazing that it hasn't happened yet.


…EXACTLY. We’ve seen some strange things this season, including disturbances that no one would thought would do anything, and then disturbances that did more than anyone thought. Two CAT 5's reeked havoc in CA!!! And, there have been tiny perturbations that kept us on edge and otherwise. A busy season for sure, if you followed the blobs, the shear, the low level spinners, the fronts, the organized and unorganized convection. We’ve watched and hung on nearly every swirl all the way across the Atlantic. And while 2007 may not yet have been the CONUS threat many expected, there’s still more than a month to go. Remember, it does only take one, right? Old hats know that. So, before we write 2007 off, let’s not let cognizance wane!

It’s been an interesting, exciting and a learning experience for me at least. I learn something all the time in the blog here. It’s usually a great place for tropical interpretation and exchange. You get to know folks and you can feel how the tropics have touched their lives, and their anticipation of being effected again in some way.

--btw, on that note, I’d like to give some special recognition to SJ! He’s shared his foresight and in a great way, humbly shared his thoughts and knowledge. His “tutorials” have been a great help to me, and I know to others here. It’s a great passion for him, helping others to understand the tropical tools and how to use them and that's very admirable! So, having said that, I ask (might get banned for it) that you open your checkbook and send him some small appreciation for it. It costs money and sacrificed time to do what he’s put out there for us. It’s not a solicitation, just an appreciation. TIA

---ALSO, on a special request, please also say a special prayer for Patrap and his family. Pat’s a nice guy! He always offers some great humor, and while he rarely predicts the weather, he is always prompt at putting up links and graphics for us to see and discern. In addition and more importantly, his passion for “awareness, preparedness and safety” is exemplary and noble. Send one up for him! That’s a good thing! And, Pat I know, will appreciate it. TIA


"Hold down the fort and keep the gates closed!"

MLCgoodnight4.gif


Have a good sleep, all!
MLC<---------------out for some shut-eye!

94L looking puny

By: moonlightcowboy, 5:22 AM GMT on October 08, 2007

Wednesday afternoon

94L appears to be moving towards the BOC

Well, it's a good thing I don't earn a living predicting tropical storms! 94L (or what's left of it) appears to be headed towards the BOC. The llc is exposed and with the impending wind shear, I don't see how it can survive even if it finds water now.

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Wednesday morning (early)

Late Tuesday evening, 94L stopped moving wnw, and turned back towards the south, moving wsw. I think I was both wrong and right yesterday. At first I didn't think the first front would have much influence on 94L, but I was wrong. A blogger posted a wv loop and it helped me to see the influence of the front. Then, looking at the SSD sat shortwave, it was apparent to me that this front was indeed pushing 94L back into the Caribbean: hence, the turn back south, maybe looping back into the Caribbean.

Now, where I think I was right, was at some point I think the front which already shows a weakness in the GOM, will lose influence over 94L. Then, what? We've got a hurricane sitting out in the Caribbean, with a general movement east, se maybe, quasi stalling.

Steering is going to still be weak and more difficult. Therefore, 94L (Noel at some point) will likely get stronger. Where? Much will depend on how far it goes when it gets back fully into the water. It'll begin to move sse and that'll be away from the front. If the pattern breaks from the front, then steering is most likely subject to the easterlies, or the trough that is kind of central to the Caribbean. But, that trough traverses west to east is breaking up, too, with part of the convection heading west, and the rest lifting out to the ne.

I'm amazed at how this thing is going to play out. I may be missing the whole thing, and am somewhat surprised the NHC or the TWC is not saying otherwise, too. Maybe, the blind squirrel is really blind after all. Sorry, not trying to be an alarmist, or a know-it-all, because I don't really know much at all, just my observations. Wrong they may be, and this likely proves just that. And, of course, it also shows just how much more I need to learn!!!!


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Tuesday evening. Very rough math, but an attempt to understand scale with 94L.

(all very rough) I'm guessing that the Yucatan is about 300 miles wide. The coc is already 60 miles ne of Chetumal moving wnw. Guessing at a slow speed of about 6 mph, but with a wind swarth of probably 150 miles, just say 100.

That could mean that the coc could travel another 100 miles wnw and easily still pull moisture. That puts it 150 or some miles inland, hits a spot where not much moisture is pulled in for a period. Then, it gets closer to the wnw side and is able to pull moisture from that same 100 mile radius, but pulling from the n and the w.

So, 300, less 200, leaves about 100 miles where it is less likely to pull moisture, or about 16 hours. Now, that could be death to the system, but it is quite large and moisture abounds in three directions. So, yeah, tomorrow by this time, it should still be spinning and have moisture available.

Past that, it may have a tough time late Wednesday. But, if it hangs out, and on, the cow gets fed again with more fuel from the west and north side. Then later in the week she goes back into sea and begins re-intensification.

Granted, that's a tall reach, but maybe a rough speculation as it traverses landsurfing. lol

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Sunday evening and Monday.

94L has everyone's interest piqued with concern about what it's going to do. Well, me, too. The last several days have been perplexing in the tropics, and I'm of the opinion that the 2007 season is determined to "remind" us of Mother Nature's awesome power. But, will 94L develop or not? All the conditions point to favorable development: warm temps are there, convection seems to be organizing and favorable winds. However, ONE essential ingredient is missing in the present: a closed llc.

Now, assuming 94L does develop, (and I believe it will) intensity and track become the concern. When and where will it go? If you'll follow along these maps below, maybe you can determine what I think might happen. It has to develop first, but just as the models are non-congruent now, I too, have my doubts. I do believe it's going to miss the current front over the CONUS, and that will have little influence on track.

After the front passes, the high is forecast to build back in over the CONUS. That means that we could have a developing storm in a quasi-stalled position over the northern Caribbean, or southern GOM. That could be a bad sign, as that is likely to aid intensity. As the high erodes and the next trough (a week out) could have the influence to steer the system which could be large by that time. Of course, things could just fizzle, too! (lol) However, I don't think "fizzle" is what 94L has in mind.


Click here on the Current SFC Map and notice the front over the mid-west and the low in the nwCaribbean.


Now, on this "3-day map notice the front has moved to the eastern seaboard, and that the lows rakes the Yucatan.

4-day map shows the front moving offshore.

5-day map shows the front even futher offshore. Notice the low still lingering in the nwCaribbean; but, also notice the high building over the CONUS.


Now on the 6-day map notice that the high is dominant, the front becomes stationary over the Caribeean, sFL and into the wAtl...and the Caribbean low is still lingering.

If that CONUS front gets to the eastern seaboard within three days, 94L or any invest can hardly develop and travel that far north or east in time for any track to be influenced. That allows for the high to build in over the CONUS. As that front becomes stationary, one scenario is that the low in the Caribbean lingers, but eventually either dissipates, or strengthens. If it goes away, no worries and all is good. If development begins, then we have a storm that builds in intensity, but moves little--until the high erodes, and the next trough comes through.

--summary, looks like we could be doing this "pot-watching" for several days yet. Coastal interests should stay abreast of any development as track and intensity are unclear.



850mb Vorticity
72-HOUR sfc forecast
TWO
North Atlantic Discussion
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
Current Steering


"Hold down the fort and keep the gates closed!"


MLCgoodnight4.gif

Your comments and suggestions are welcome. Thanks in advance!
Have a good one!

MLC


PS: Don't forget to check out Tropical Lagniappe for some great links to other blogs and websites from fellow WU members! There's some great info here and I always learn something each time I visit them!

AWARENESS, PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY

Get a plan, if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Develop a plan for yourself. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute them. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss it with them if you can. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination.

Exchange plans, numbers and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around. Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. Visit Patrap's Blog, a great guy who believes in promoting preparedness and safety. Also, another good one is Hurricanecrab's Blog. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of peoples lives.

MORE updates for FELIX

By: moonlightcowboy, 5:55 AM GMT on October 03, 2007

Please STOP, take about TWO minutes and read of what our fellow blogger and his family are doing!
You'll be glad you did!

http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l274/moonlightcowboy/APPEALTHREE.jpg?t=1191386839

WU's own Katadman (Scott) sent me this info at my request and agreed to let me post it. His family is making an extensive effort to help with FELIX relief, including an extended visit there! They leave for Nicaragua on October 6th. Below is an appeal letter for help from Rachel, his daughter. Scott himself did considerable relief work there following Hurricane Mitch which killed 1,000's. He says it's a very poor area, and that they desperately do need help. He's also speaks very highly of the Miskitos as being a friendly, humble, caring people.

Felix's death toll is believed to be around 200 from sketchy reports, but there has been considerable additional loss to property and crops. And, the reports of death and devastation keep climbing. The country's native Miskito Indians were also hit particularly hard. Devastated terrain has hindered relief. Over 8,000 homes are believed destroyed, 18,000 believed to be in shelters, churches and schools destroyed, over 7 million acres of forests lost, and many accounts of people still missing. HELP IS NEEDED! Please read the following and support them in this very worthwhile, noble effort.

It's good to know that there is such great efforts made by individuals outside of governments and that bureaucracy which often prevents getting help to people that truly need it and as quickly as it's needed!

Scott and his family live in sTexas, so please be COURTEOUS with your communications and GENEROUS with your contributions! NOTE, TOO, that "Missions of Grace" is a [501(c)3] and donations can be tax-deductible.

I personally applaud this momentous effort by them and hope that WU bloggers, our friends and neighbors can also be helpful. Please, let's do what we can to help make this helpful mission extremely successful!

Thanks, TONS in advance!!!

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Hello Friends!!!

The (document below) is a flyer for an upcoming trip to Nicaragua that my mom, Cheri, will be making on the 6th of October. I am sending it out in an attempt to collect items and monetary donations for the hurricane victims. Thanks to everyone for reading it and for the help and prayers. If you can please send it on to friends, families and co-workers...print it out and post it on the wall! Please help us get the word out, because as the number grows of people involved so will the numbers of lives being changed...

Thank you so much!!!!
Rachel L. Mauldin

Missions of Grace
Emails:
missionsofgrace@satx.rr.com
nicalady1@hotmail.com
raquelucha82@hotmail.com


http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l274/moonlightcowboy/Nicaraguaflyer.jpg?t=1191383172


http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l274/moonlightcowboy/nicaraguaneeded.jpg?t=1191384277


http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l274/moonlightcowboy/missionsofgrace.jpg?t=1191384811

ABOUT GRACE MISSION: (RE: Scott Mauldin, or Katadman) Missions of Grace does not retain any portion of donations given for relief work. 100% is passed on to those for whom it is intended. All funds go to their designated purpose.


MLC's Felix blog of pictures, stories, links

FELIX - Miskito Community loses forestlands; over 7 million acres estimated


MORE INFO forthcoming! And, I've asked Scott to give us as much info for posting as possible. I'm hopeful that their trip is a safe and fulfilling one! Thanks, all for helping!




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

About moonlightcowboy

"There is no heavier burden than a great potential." - Charles Schultz, in the Peanut's character of Linus.