moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

98L going ***pooof***

By: moonlightcowboy, 3:36 AM GMT on July 30, 2008

98L has all but ****pooofed**** with little convection remaining around the coc's location. Dry air and cooler waters have led to its demise and although it's still in an area with low pressure. This morning it was still showing a closed surface low pressure of 1006mb. As it wades through all the dry air in the area, if it survives and makes it further west there is the possibility for regeneration, but 98L's development chances are looking pretty slim and none. Although 98L's looking fairly puny, if it can hold together weak as it is, track west out of the subsidence, it may regenerate. Dust as I understand it is mostly at the mid-levels, so it if stays weak and under all the mess inhibiting while finding some warmer water to get some convection going, this thing may still have a slight chance.

The B/A 1024mb high is centered in the middle of the Atlantic(shown here on Latest Surface Map) and that leaves the tropics fairly quiet as we enter into the main months of hurricane season, August and September.

That's all REALLY GOOD NEWS for right now, especially considering what a busy July we've had. Don't despair, more waves will crank out and there'll be new things to watch and follow snd be concerned over shortly.

So, again, we wait. We watch. We see! :)



Tropical Weather Outlook
North Atlantic Discussion



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY

Here's a look at the next 12-48 hour forecasts!

BlankBlank

BlankBlank

850mb Vorticity
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
Current Steering

---------------------------------------------------------

Other BLOGS and updates:

Visit Patrap's blog on "Hurricane Preparedness!" - excellent blog...and May is the time to get ready, before season gets here!

Other good tropical blogs on WU here at "TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE". These are from some of WU's most respected, adept weather bloggers. Please check them out! Good info from them, and I always learn something when I visit their blogs and sites.

My other 2008 pre-season blogs:

The LOOP CURRENT and EDDYS


What will the 2008 season be like?

Is the MJO working?

Got an ITCZ? Scratch it!

Photobucket
Click on the RED CROSS link here.




visitor stats

Watching 97L and new wave

By: moonlightcowboy, 9:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2008



We've had four names storms now with two hurricanes and three of those have occurred simultaneously in July. Now, there's another concern, INVEST 97L off the African coast; but, she's emerged over cooler waters and not looking like much in the present and it will have trouble developing until it reaches higher ss temps. If it does develop, hopefully, it will be a FISH. And, another wave is behind that one that has yet to emerge with some of the models showing development. The next four named storms are to be Edouard, Fay, Gustav and Hanna.



Obviously, an active CV season has already begun and it appears to be ramping up with more waves coming off the African coast. But, this was kind of expected considering the number, frequency and organization of these early twaves since May.



SSTs are plenty warm enough to support tropical development mostly all across the tATL. Shear is forecast to remain low. After those two variables, all that's needed is a disturbance and with improving climatological conditions, the season looks to being very active. A limiting factor could be the MJO as the downward pulse of the coming will not be as helpful with development as in recent passes. Of course, another factor that will effect landfall with any of these storms is where the B/A high sets up and fluctuates. Plus, we're at the mercy of what troughs there may be that plunge southwards as these storms approach land.



Certainly, July has already set the pace. How dangerous will these storms be and where will they hit? Those chapters still have to be written. If one hasn't got a hurricane plan up and going, I think now'd be a really good time to start. Bertha was a fair warning and certainly Dolly should have put most along the islands and the GOM to reasonable test and put folks to preparing.

Now, we wait. We watch. We see! :)

Tropical Weather Outlook
North Atlantic Discussion



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY

Here's a look at the next 12-48 hour forecasts!

BlankBlank

BlankBlank

850mb Vorticity
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
Current Steering

---------------------------------------------------------

Other BLOGS and updates:

Visit Patrap's blog on "Hurricane Preparedness!" - excellent blog...and May is the time to get ready, before season gets here!

Other good tropical blogs on WU here at "TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE". These are from some of WU's most respected, adept weather bloggers. Please check them out! Good info from them, and I always learn something when I visit their blogs and sites.

My other 2008 pre-season blogs:

The LOOP CURRENT and EDDYS


What will the 2008 season be like?

Is the MJO working?

Got an ITCZ? Scratch it!

Photobucket
Click on the RED CROSS link here.




visitor stats

Dolly to landfall near Sth Padre

By: moonlightcowboy, 6:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2008



DOLLY UPDATED (Wednesday): Dolly's eyewall just came ashore at South Padre Island, TX. The coc still remains offshore and the storm may travel slightly more northwards before the coc crosses onto land. Dolly winds are reported at near CAT 2 strength, but she's had some eyewall degradation just before coming ashore - not sure whether that's due to an EWRC or possibly land interaction, dry air, etc. Dolly is still a dangerous storm with strong winds and heavy rainfall.
___________________________________________________________

CANE: Dolly finally made it to hurricane status with minimal hurricane winds last reported near 5:00 pm of 75 mph as she was able to further her distance away from the ull to her south, allowing her to improve in symmetry and intensity.

CONDITIONS: Dolly had also sucked in some dry air due to subsidence created by the departing mid-level ull; and, I'm not totally convinced that there's not still some subsidence lingering there and getting entrained. The ull's influence on Dolly has done the south TX coast a huge favor in one respect in that it has been the primary reason Dolly hasn't ramped up in intensity. Certainly, warm waters and OHC have been adequate.

SPEED: She's also slowed considerably, today. Early Tuesday morning her forward speed was reported at 17 mph and in the 5:00 p.m. report had slowed to 9 mph. The NHC has suggested that Dolly may actually stall before reaching land and may briefly meander somewhat just offshore. This could give Dolly time enough to strengthen more, but she may not reach CAT 2 status even which is 96-110 mph. That may be a stretch considering its approaching proximity to land and slightly cooler waters just off the sTX shore. A CAT 3 storm imo is unlikely since Dolly's eyewall has not been able to remain completely stable throughout the day, only strengthening slowly. I think that'll still be the trend with her coming ashore, too, as a medium to strong CAT 1 storm.

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LOCATION and LANDFALL: The latest NHC coc location of Dolly is 24.6n,95.3w. That means Dolly is less than 150 miles from reaching shore just east of Brownsville, TX, where the NHC is projecting a possible landfall. If she continued on her present track and speed of 9 mph, Dolly would make landfall near Brownsville somewhere around 6:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning. However, Dolly may still slow even further, stalling and delay landfall. Still, I think she'll come ashore sometime before 5:00 p.m. Wednesday and possibly before noon. Now, that's really just a guess, so, please don't hold me to it.

WIND THREAT: If Dolly comes ashore near Brownsville (btw, Brownsville is some 30 miles inland) or just above, it's in a more remote area of sTX (as I understand it), so winds of 75=85 mph may not be as severe and cause as much damage as if Dolly were stronger or hit in a more densely populated area. However, since she's moving slowly, those sustained winds could give quite a battering to structures, etc. That "by no account" means that Dolly won't be serious and perhaps even deadly. Dolly is also capable of spawning dangerous tornadoes. So, PLEASE follow all instructions of your local Emergency Management Office if you are in any proximity (150-200 miles) to this storm.

SURGE THREAT: Dolly's slowed forward speed could mean that she won't be able to push quite as much water, fast onto shore. That's good news; but, the bad news is that there will still probably be a surge of 4 to 8,10 feet especially on the neast quadrant. There are several factors that go into surge other than just forward speed, including shelf depth approaching shore, angle of landfall and other factors. Another thing - because of Dolly's projected angle to land the neast side will push water to her left/west as she moves into shore, meaning that water will pile up on her left side causing more flooding and possibly deeper wave heights. That's not good news.



RAIN THREAT: The additional and potentially more serious threat is from rainfall and flooding. Aiding that problem is Dolly's slowed, stalled speed. She's a huge storm with with TS force winds extending out nearly 200 miles. Near the core of the storm Dolly could drop as much as 20 inches of rain and that would certainly be devastating, causing major flooding especially to lower areas. Away from the center, Dolly can still drop rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches, too. What makes Dolly so dangerous in this respect is that she has such a large cloud expanse that's moved very slowly over water creating a great deal of precipitation along her path. The fact that she'll move slowly overland just makes the situation worse. WARNING - more people are killed from water through surge and flooding than from winds! So, if you are anywhere in these rainfall/flooding paths, please take proper precautions while you still can! The water is dangerous and deadly business!



The TPC has had three named storms going on now in JULY, ugh! And, it there's another INVEST 97L off the African coast and several models are forecasting development. An active CV season has started a bit early and it appears to be ramping up even more. But, this was kind of expected by a few of us considering the number and frequency and organization that we've been seeing out of these twaves early on since May.

SSTs are plenty warm enough to support tropical development all across the tATL. Shear is forecast to remain low. After those two variables, all you need is a disturbance. And, when you consider the number, frequency and organization of twaves that we've had already, with improving climtologial conditions, the season could be very active indeed. Of course, the other factors that effect landfall are how the B/A high sets up and fluctuates and what troughs there may be.

Certainly, July has already set the pace and points to an active season. And, there's lots of July left yet to go. How dangerous will the storms be and where will they hit? Those chapters still have to be written. But, I certainly don't have a doubt, that an above average, active season is on the way with four named storms and two hurricanes likely already going into the third week of July - that speaks volumes!

We wait. We watch. We see! If one hasn't got a hurricane plan up and going, I think now'd be a really good time to start. Bertha was a fair warning, and Dolly will NOT be a FISH!

Tropical Weather Outlook
North Atlantic Discussion



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY

Here's a look at the next 12-48 hour forecasts!

BlankBlank

BlankBlank

850mb Vorticity
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
Current Steering

---------------------------------------------------------

Other BLOGS and updates:

Visit Patrap's blog on "Hurricane Preparedness!" - excellent blog...and May is the time to get ready, before season gets here!

Other good tropical blogs on WU here at "TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE". These are from some of WU's most respected, adept weather bloggers. Please check them out! Good info from them, and I always learn something when I visit their blogs and sites.

My other 2008 pre-season blogs:

The LOOP CURRENT and EDDYS


What will the 2008 season be like?

Is the MJO working?

Got an ITCZ? Scratch it!

Photobucket
Click on the RED CROSS link here.


visitor stats

Boom! Here come the CV's! 94L, more!

By: moonlightcowboy, 4:24 AM GMT on July 17, 2008



Is Christobal on the way? The TPC gives 94L the chance of development at greater than 50 percent and it has good vorticity. It's had some trouble getting a closed circ together, especially at the fast clip it's running. There is some ragged circulation, but it appears to have gotten slightly better organized since yesterday. ALSO, the swest Caribbean has gotten a substantial disturbance out from Nicaragua. It seems to have a very broad and slight rotation, too; but, the NHC has not declared it an INVEST yet. The NHC is also watching the area off of the cFL west coast for possible "depression" development and it gives it little chance for anything substantial - likely pour some needed water on FL and maybe GA as it lifts out soon.

I mentioned a couple of days ago that 94L would likely develop, but that it would happen slowly with the next couple of dmax's substantially helping development. Dry air is no longer an impediment as it was earlier on this week (RAMSDIS water vapor loop). SST's are good and OHC has been good, too. It's also fast approaching an anti-cyclone in the eCarib which would aid development. The motion has been pretty much west and steering seems to suggest even a possible swest movement.

I think further development is possible, but it's going to have to slow its forward speed in order to close off a circulation before it can start looking like a real storm. The Caribbean gets warm and it's likely to slow its forward speed there, too. When that happens, look for a substantial increase in intensity. However, it's also approaching the "deadzone" area of the Caribbean where little develops if it hasn't already gotten established somewhat - that is until it gets to about 70w.

It surely looks significant in the water right now, but let's see what it looks like after dmax tonight.



The TPC has three areas of interest going on now in the tATL. And, it seems the CV season has started a bit early. But, considering the number and frequency and organization that we've been seeing out of these twaves early on, it's not really surprising. We wait. We watch. We see!

If one hasn't got a hurricane plan up and going, I think now'd be a really good time to start. Bertha was a fair warning! :)

Tropical Weather Outlook
North Atlantic Discussion



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY

Here's a look at the next 12-48 hour forecasts!

BlankBlank

BlankBlank

850mb Vorticity
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
Current Steering

---------------------------------------------------------

Other BLOGS and updates:

Visit Patrap's blog on "Hurricane Preparedness!" - excellent blog...and May is the time to get ready, before season gets here!

Other good tropical blogs on WU here at "TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE". These are from some of WU's most respected, adept weather bloggers. Please check them out! Good info from them, and I always learn something when I visit their blogs and sites.

My other 2008 pre-season blogs:

The LOOP CURRENT and EDDYS


What will the 2008 season be like?

Is the MJO working?

Got an ITCZ? Scratch it!

Photobucket
Click on the RED CROSS link here.


visitor stats

BERTHA to stall then go FISHING! ;P

By: moonlightcowboy, 1:50 AM GMT on July 08, 2008

CHRISTOBAL coming soon?

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Well, some of the models are predicting development over in the next week of another tropical wave that's rolled off the African coast. Will it be Christobal? Who knows? It surely looks significant in the water right now, but let's see what it looks like in a day or so. It's a long way from land, but there does appear to be a surface low. Waters are hot. Shear is low and the Azores high is centered a bit further south, meaning that this might not be a Bertha, or a fish.

It seems the CV season has started a bit early. But, considering the number and frequency and organization that we've been seeing out of these twaves early on, it's not really surprising. We wait. We watch. We see!

If one hasn't got a hurricane plan up and going, I think now'd be a really good time to start. Bertha was a fair warning! :)

Tropical Weather Outlook
North Atlantic Discussion



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY

Here's a look at the next 12-48 hour forecasts!

BlankBlank

BlankBlank

850mb Vorticity
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
Current Steering

---------------------------------------------------------

Other BLOGS and updates:

Visit Patrap's blog on "Hurricane Preparedness!" - excellent blog...and May is the time to get ready, before season gets here!

Other good tropical blogs on WU here at "TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE". These are from some of WU's most respected, adept weather bloggers. Please check them out! Good info from them, and I always learn something when I visit their blogs and sites.

My other 2008 pre-season blogs:

The LOOP CURRENT and EDDYS


What will the 2008 season be like?

Is the MJO working?

Got an ITCZ? Scratch it!

Photobucket
Click on the RED CROSS link here.


visitor stats


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

About moonlightcowboy

"There is no heavier burden than a great potential." - Charles Schultz, in the Peanut's character of Linus.