moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

Erika is no longer a fish

By: moonlightcowboy, 9:50 PM GMT on August 30, 2009

WEDNESDAY evening



Notice the convection now building over the east Caribbean llc, away from the heavy convection, and is now being steered by substantial low level southeasterly flow. The vigorous circulation is moving southwest and imo, will create a brand new set of dynamics for this complex tropical system.

This does not particularly surprise me at all as the broad, tilted cyclonic wave flow was moving east to west. It may be down-graded from TS status, but I expect Erika to regenerate convection since it is in the hot Caribbean and moving swest under the heaviest shear to her north. There is still considerable 20-30 knts shear to the west, but that is expected to relax.

Fasten your seatbelts, folks, the dynamics of this system and its track have now changed considerably imo. With Erika's llc now in the Caribbean, although still fighting shear, she will begin to regenerate more convection as she continues her southwest direction. Additionally, it is not inconceivable, though I have not studied this, that the convection embedded within the moisture maximum within the cyclonic flow may actually, eventually catch up (maybe only partially) with Erika's llc as the wave's flow begins to tilt from nwest to seast. One point though, imo, the east to west flow is going to be exxagerated by the tilting wave and will help to steer Erika further west, maybe even a little swest for a period of time. That would also help bring the llc under the heavier shear to is north.



This is a whole new ball game, imo, folks. Don't judge too harshly, I'm just a novice here; but this is what I see happening in the present. I am not fortelling the future, lol, even though I'm fairly confident Erika's future track is about to change considerably. How well it reacts to the changing dynamics, or if it is able to regenerate convection and strengthen, that is certainly in doubt. However, I am speculating that this vigorous circulation of the llc will continue to fight and be steered more west than north in the present. It is entirely possible for it to dissipate if it can't get out from under the shear or regrow convection - but, I don't think that will be the case at all.

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The models, most all of them, are out to lunch on this one. They don't have a grasp of what is happening with this very unsual cyclogenesis, imo. I'll look at 'em, but in no way would I believe the lot of them, even if they were all in agreement. They do not have a remote clue about this system's eventual track or intensity at this time - never have had really mostly because of the complex, broad cyclonic flow within the tilted wave. Late yesterday and early today they have been more accurate, but that is all about to change now with these differing dynamics. This broad system is still basically embedded within the ITCZ because of the cyclonic flow. Any upper atmospheric steering from northerly troughiness or substantial coriolis have been negligible as the steering has mostly been predicated by the low level easterly flow and the tilt of the wave axis.

Another thing that the above Navy sfc winds graphic shows is that the seasterly flow is being reinforced and growing stronger - near 20 knts of low level flow - very hard for any weak circulation to move any direction but west or southwest in that kind of flow.

I want to say, in case I forgot to mention this earlier, that imo the models have been reacting "faslely" to initiating the system's llc and factoring in atmospheric forecasted conditions. It is my guess that the models have been misinterpreting any northerly troughiness or upper level conditions for steering. Instead, what has really been directing the movement hasn't been those factors at all; and rather, the movement has been nearly completely guided by the tilt and symmetry of the wave axis within the cyclonic flow.

IMO, as the tilt reached its maximum height in the transversing flow the models peaked with initiating the llc's position, then far northernmost, and tried to forecast movement past that time with upper atmospheric conditions. However, when the tilt progressed and the convection began to collapse and begin to level out, they lost their fix on the llc and, consequently, what would have been that last position's connection to those conditions. That has now changed, either or both llcs, will now be repositioned further west and southwest away from the earlier northernmost position and they will have to readjust to a new llc initiation point and migrate to the different atmospheric and surface conditions further west of their original forecasted guidance.



This Navy cloudsat shot adequately depicts the, now, northwest to southeast axis tilt of the wave embedded in the cyclonic flow. As the wave reached its maximum height, the atmospheric moisture, basically, collided with itself. The result was a self-induced "psuedo" shear, imo, that ejected the llc away from the collapsing convection. However, this cyclonic flow has, in addition to the moisture maximum, has had very visible elongated vorticity. So, as the wave completes the tilt from east to west, it is also likely creating additional vortices within the flow. More than likely, as before, this system's flow is producing several smaller vortices that have ultimately produced at least two main areas of vorticity. The one mentioned earlier in the Caribbean now, that is in the present exposed but building convection; and, likely the one still associated more southerly now within the tilt that's breaking or collapsing the convection as the wave starts to level out more horizontally. I suppose it is possible for either of these llc's to develop with the exposed llc continuing to track swest and the convective llc to continue a more northwesterly track. However, I would think that eventually one will become more dominant - which one? I'd lean toward the convective llc, but if anything, this system has been atypical. So, for that reason, and considering that the collapsing and tilting axis will propel the convection further west, I'm going to speculate that this convection could effectively "catch up" or again join the exposed llc and continue its track through the Caribbean. Sound far-fetched? I know, I thought so too and it probably is! LOL.



Sfc winds indicate the exposed llc, already in the Caribbean, is being steered southwesterly by the the low level easterly flow. This is a very unique system and has been all along. Present conditions are like supporting


Another thing that the above Navy sfc winds graphic shows is that the seasterly flow is being reinforced and growing stronger - near 20 knts of low level flow - very hard for any weak circulation to move any direction but west or southwest in that kind of flow.

I want to say, in case I forgot to mention this earlier, that imo the models have been reacting "faslely" to initiating the system's llc and factoring in atmospheric forecasted conditions. It is my guess that the models have been misinterpreting any northerly troughiness or upper level conditions for steering. Instead, what has really been directing the movement hasn't been those factors at all; and rather, the movement has been nearly completely guided by the tilt and symmetry of the wave axis within the cyclonic flow.

IMO, as the tilt reached its maximum height in the transversing flow the models peaked with initiating the llc's position, then far northernmost, and tried to forecast movement past that time with upper atmospheric conditions. However, when the tilt progressed and the convection began to collapse and begin to level out, they lost their fix on the llc and, consequently, what would have been that last position's connection to those conditions. That has now changed, either or both llcs, will now be repositioned further west and southwest away from the earlier northernmost position and they will have to readjust to a new llc initiation point and migrate to the different atmospheric and surface conditions further west of their original forecasted guidance.

It is my guess that this will take a certain amount of time for the models to adjust to these changes in position and conditions. So, any guidance for intensity and track will ultimately be false. However, expect the statistical models, which are short-run and can input and present data quicker than the dynamic models, to reflect the changes in position and atmospheric condtions more quickly. Again, those best suited and that have seemed to have a better interpretation of position and conditions to be LBAR and the BAMs.

That is one hulluva an easterly flow and the northern troughing is weakening and heading northwards away from the system. That cone will start shifting further west now, imo. Look for the 1800 runs to shift considerably west. Erika is no longer a fish!

Oh, and I'm fairly certain, that if you peek in the distance, you can actually see the smoke from the fire in Dr. Master's blog! ;P


WEDNESDAY morning

TS Erika is suffering from some southwesterly shear on the northwest side of the system this morning, but has a defined llc and decent convection. The models continue to trend west with the LBAR being the most consistent with track guidance. It's looking more and more like Erika will not be a fish, but it has to survive shear and land interaction of the northern islands. I'll have an updated novice analysis later on today.

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MONDAY EVENING:

The tropical engine is finally working for 94L as evidenced by the cold towers over the core of the system. Convection is widening and the storm is quite symmetrical with very evident banding. I've had very little time to look at much of this evening, but I would suspect that 94L has found the 29 degree waters and is now fueling the lift, generating these high cloud tops. 94L's timing for more development coinciding with dmax couldn't be better - and if this kind of improvement continues it would not surprise me to see the NHC upgrade this anytime now to TD status. I've seen far worse looking TDs and TSs named.



Granted the sondes or QS may not be confirming an llc yet, but it is obviously there. Perhaps they are waiting for data from the scheduled recon tomorrow; however, if it looks, walks, talks and tracks like a duck - it's probably a duck! I have not looked at wind data, etc, so please, don't judge this brief observation and comment too harshly. I just think 94L should have already been labeled a depression by now; and certainly, it can only be hours away from getting officially classified as such.

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And, each model run continues bring this sytem further west, and less north.


Monday morning:

94L once again took advantage of night time lift and built convection over the coc which did slide (not reform) somewhat "north" and "west" to 14.5n,51w because of the tilted wave flow becoming more perpendicular, not because of any weakness north of the system. Now, that the wave has righted itself, current steering flow still suggests more of a wnw component to movement. The wave is currently moving wnw at about 15 mph, though it does seem to be slowing somewhat. There is much better low level convergence and it still has good divergence aloft. Since the wave axis has become less tilted and added convection over the coc, the system has finally achieved some vertical stability over its core. The system looks symmetrical and convection is still scattered, but more uniform within the banding features of the outflow.

This is a fairly large system and it will take it some time to fill the diameter solidly with convection from the coc, but conditions look favorable in the present for further strengthening with little shear because of the anticyclone overhead. However, there is a freight train of shear associated with the ULL's in the TUTT axis immediately to the north and northwest of the system that will pulverize any growing convection without the anticyclone as it moves generally wnw. 94L is in 28 degree waters and has not quite made it to the 29 degree area in front of the system, so waters are not quite optimum.

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I still do not think the models have gotten a good grasp of 94L's coc, but that may change as the system gets better organized. However, the entire group is still trending more westwards than northwards with the LBAR and BAMM remaining extremely consistent thus far, bringing the storm into the neast Caribbean over the northern Antilles.

If the NHC doesn't declare it a TD today or shortly thereafter it won't be because of shearing imo, it'll be because it can't find an llc, though the system is considerably more organized with more solid convection over the the core of the circulation and evidenced by spiral banding actually aided by the ULL's ventilating the system. QScatt already has shown some surface winds of 30 knts. And, the anticyclone is actually out in front of the system's nwesterly movement, keeping the shear from the TUTT axis at bay in the present - that could certainly change as this systems continues to move westnorthwesterly.

I've seen considerably worse looking systems named TD and even TS.

Recon is not scheduled until tomorrow and the NHC may be waiting for those results and to see how it handles stability between the diurnals before declaring it a TD.



SUNDAY, Aug 30.

94L has put on some decent new convectionn over the coc during the past 24 hours. The anticyclone above the system is mostly hanging with the circulation, but any movement more northwards there is 20-30 knts of shear and could hinder development. In the present, that may be acting to help ventilate the system's northeast side. However, there is very little shear to the northwest and west in the present and further development is likely, although shear is forecast to increase later, further to the northwest. Pressure is down to 1007 and the whole system is moving west at about 15 mph. Expect a gradual, but steady strengthening over the next 24 hours. .

72-HOUR sfc forecast
TWO
North Atlantic Discussion
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
LATEST STEERING CURRENTS
Latest SFC Map


Organization, however, is still a bit problematic. The tilted cycloncic flow still has a deep-layered moisture maximum associated with it, but the feature is less pronounced today, at least at the surface. Lower level convergence has improved but rests mostly on the system's south side. Upper divergence is adequate, but the tropical engine is still having trouble getting fuel from the surface to create sufficient lift and vertical stability, most likely due to the deep-layer moisture maximum, elongated within the flow to the neast of the coc and some light shearing overhead.

That feature embedded within the whole cyclonic flow associated with 94L is likely the main reason some of the dynamic model's track guidance have shown a more northwards path. A couple of models imo, LBAR and BAMD, have iniated their track sequence near the coc more accurately. BAMM has also shifted to that track guidance as well - all now suggesting a wnwesterly path towards the northern Antilles. BAMS is coming more in line with that guidance and the other models have shifted somewhat further west as well.

None of the models, imo, have accurately grasped 94L's coc. The more northerly projected path by some of the models is more than likely associated with the tilt from within the cyclonic flow and less likely because of the system feeling any troughing weakness north of the system imo - the system is too weak and too far away to be latching on to any weakness just yet. If the system does not organize further the coc could drift more northwards within that tilted flow, expect the models to shift more northwards. If lower level convergence remains weak or even improves and the system gains better vertical stability where it is, then I expect the present southern outlier tracks to be more accurate and the tilted flow would slightly exaggerate the movement more west with the present steering. At this time, I suspect that or a blend of that to be the case -those southern outliers have been fairly consistent.



It seems fairly obvious to me that the models do no yet have a clear grasp of 94L's coc although the system is getting better organized. The dynamic models initialize the coc further east and the statistical models further west. The GFDL (and, it's spin-off HWRF) do not do well in the cyclo phase. Although the coc is offically at about 11.8n,47.5w, I see the center further west, closer to 12n,48w. Additionally, the coc could be sliding, reforming - perhaps, getting more vertical best describes it, possibly further north within this tilted system. Until 94L gets more organized, the models will continue to interpret a variety of initializations and subsequent tracks.

Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to have to wait too long and the models will begin to initialize the coc more accurately as 94L becomes more organized.



It would not surprise me to see the coc relocate further north within this broad, elongated and tilted cyclonic flow. I think that's why there is still considerable differences in the margins between the models. Again, I cannot climb on board with the GFDL as it has continously proven its unreliability during cyclogenesis, but I am a big fan of the GFDL once a system is completely organized, up and running.



Again, the current steering flow does not suggest any substantial movement northwards. In the present, if the coc slides northwards at all, or reforms further north, it will be because of the tilt in the cylonic flow. The easterly steering flow would suggest a more westwards movement in either case, but would move the track further north if the center relocates. Getting a fixed position on the coc at the surface will be paramount for the models accurately initializing . With present course and steering, the islands could be within the strike zone.

In the present, I see the coc further west than even the official coordinates, out near 48w nearer where the most intense t'storm activity is located. However, there is clearly rotation further north as well within this problematic flow. While this system is better organized than last evening, it is still struggling to gain vertical stability over the coc. For that reason I think most of the models should not be heavily depended on in the present. Until the system becomes more organized an accurate track will be difficult to discern.

For now, I'm sticking with which models runs have had less track error and have been more consistent - LBAR and BAMD. However, I will add that BAMS is usually a good guide with weaker systems and I should watch it more closely, though it too has been cycling further west towards LBAR and BAMD.

94L could finally be seeing the benefits of some warmer waters - that may tell the tale. When she gets her act together, track will be more conclusive. Right now, it's a stab in the dark with many variables still dependent. I have to go with what I see - and, right now, I still see a fairly weak, but growing system that lacks vertical stability in a westerly steering flow. Certainly, the nAntilles should be concerned and watch it closely. If the southern outliers' tracks hold true, then 94L's eventual path will be contingent on the eConus trough exiting the coast line within a few days. A stronger system by then would feel that weakness and likely pulled more northwards. Will it be eventually be a fish? Let's hope so, but unless 94L gets substantially stronger anytime soon, or if the coc doesn't slide or relocate more north within that heavily tilted cyclonic flow, an islands hit and a conus landfalling storm is entirely possible, depending on the timing of the econus-exiting trough later on in the week. More than likely this system will be dubbed "Erika" sometimes late Monday or early Tuesday.



Elsewhere, I think it's worthwhile to keep an eye on the GOM with any cut-offs from the troughs, etc. The GOM is ripe for development with high SSTs. Additionally, there is another wave behind 94L that could develop and a huge system exiting the African coast. Either could develop and God forbid if either should find the quiet Caribbean - TCHP is high and the waters have been unstirred this season.

ALSO, let's not forget our neighbors in Baja, Mexico - Jimena has turned into a major threat.



We're reaching the peak of the 2009 Hurricane Season on September 10th, so, there is more than 1/2 the season remaining - a longs ways to go yet; and, things are definitely heating up! Hopefully, through awareness and preparedness there will be little injury and loss of life. Even the threat of a storm causes much anxiety for many. Despite all the damage that may occur to property, injury can be prevented and lives can be saved.

Get a plan, if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss plans with them. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination. Exchange plans, numbers and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around.

Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of peoples lives.

You can make a difference! "Awareness, Preparedness and Safety" should be the game plan! Your comments and suggestions are welcome. PLEASE, feel free to still comment on politics and other news happenings in addition to the weather.

MLCgoodnight4.gif

MLC <----------------says, "Thanks in advance and have a good one!"


BLOG RULES: Simple - Keep it absolutely civil towards fellow bloggers. And, don't get heavy on the partisanship - it's quite obvious that corrupt, petty, inept, greedy, power-lustful politicians are plentiful on both sides of the aisle. It's ok to take jabs at them - either party, any official or candidate; but, leave the total "blame game" out of this - it's ALL of them, everyone! If you think otherwise, then you probably don't want to bring it in here! Informational and news statements (not weather related - PLEASE FOLLOW OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ADVISORIES!) in this blog by me are generally backed by valid and usually corroberating links. Newcomers are welcome to this blog but are scrutinized more heavily until I discern the nature of their posting habits. Regulars have more leeway even with large and differing opinions, provided their posts are not made with any personal attack or similar innuendo. Otherwise, those who have not proven themselves to me (and that's all that matters) may be considered pot-stirrers, trolls or ban circumventors and are subject to being banned without warning. The ban may be relieved at anytime at my discretion pending review of the blogger's posting history and perspective in other blogs - should I see them. This is an adult blog for the maturely vested, not a juvenile hall or playground. Adults who act like young, irresponsible children will be asked to leave or be banned - all others are VERY WELCOME! :)

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Waked up this morning?

By: moonlightcowboy, 4:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2009

...You woke up this morning the world turned upside down,
Thing's ain't been the same since the Blues walked into town.


Bankers watch as Sweden goes negative

For a world first, the announcement came with remarkably little fanfare. But..., the Swedish Riksbank entered uncharted territory when it became the world’s first central bank to introduce negative interest rates on bank deposits.




COMING TO THE INFOWAR OCTOBER 21st, 2009
Here is a first glimpse of Alex Jones most powerful film yet, to be titled Fall of the Republic: The Presidency of Barack Obama. The globalists want the Republic to fall, and they are trying to use their newest, and slickest ever puppet to destroy the last vestiges of Americas freedom, Constitution and economy, all while helping the bankers loot the country clean. But this film shows how we can turn it around, and restore all that was good and right in our nation.






...20(0) years now...where'd they go? 20(0) years, I don't know. I sit and I wonder sometimes where they've gone!.....and the moon comes calling in a ghostly white...and I recall!



...sure does seemed to have passed so very quickly! Don't Blink!



"Social Security Could Face Default Within Two Years"

Inquiring minds are reading the details of an interview in the Tuscaloosa News with Congressman Spencer Bachus. Please consider Bachus discusses Social Security, health care.
“Social Security could face default within two years,” U.S. Rep. Spencer Bachus predicted here Tuesday. “The situation is much worse than people realize, especially because of the problems brought on by the recession, near depression. What this recession has done to Social Security is pretty alarming."

“We’ve known for 15 years that we were going to have to make adjustment to Social Security, but we still through that was seven or eight years down the road,” he said. “But if things don’t improve very quickly, we’re going to be dealing with that problem before we know it.”

“We could raise the retirement age, or in the worst case, cut back on some benefits,” he said. “But that is something we are just now beginning to get a handle on.”
By the way, and as noted in Federal Tax Revenues Suffer Biggest Drop Since Great Depression, there is no Social Security fund and there is no trust either.

All that exists of Social Security is a bunch of IOUs and unpaid promises
that most believe cannot possibly be met.


...yeah, buddy! Let's borrow trillions more for some more government programs we can't fund, much less manage!



September 12 will be a new day of reckoning in America! A day when responsibilty and real representation of the people will once again be heard! On that day, we officially begin taking this country back!

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING: Sebastionjer's blog - "Life Is Not A Theory!", and "No Debate" and GetReal's blog - "Obama Healthcare Truth"

U.S. may need another $250,000,000,000 stimulus - Roubini
"It might be in the $200-$250 billion range -- not too small, not too big," he added. But if the next stimulus is too large, Roubini warned, financial markets would start to get worried about U.S. fiscal sustainability, with "severe" negative consequences for bond markets.

Unemployment nears 21 percent
Junk message in a bottle?
Please help DEFEAT CAP & TRADE in the US Senate here!



BLOG RULES: Simple - Keep it absolutely civil towards fellow bloggers. And, don't get heavy on the partisanship - it's quite obvious that corrupt, petty, inept, greedy, power-lustful politicians are plentiful on both sides of the aisle. It's ok to take jabs at them - either party, any official or candidate; but, leave the total "blame game" out of this - it's ALL of them, everyone! If you think otherwise, then you probably don't want to bring it in here! Informational statements in this blog by me are generally backed by valid and usually corroberating links. Newcomers are welcome to this blog but are scrutinized more heavily with their conjecture and perspective until I discern the nature of their posting habits. Regulars have more leeway even with large and differing opinions, provided their posts are not made with any personal attack or such innuendo. Otherwise, those who have not proven themselves to me (and that's all that matters) may be considered pot-stirrers, trolls or ban circumventors and are subject to being banned without warning. The ban may be relieved at anytime at my discretion pending review of the blogger's posting history and perspective in other blogs - should I see them. This is an adult blog for the maturely vested, not a juvenile hall or playground. Adults who act like young, irresponsible children will be asked to leave or be banned.

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The "MJO", tropics & more

By: moonlightcowboy, 5:18 AM GMT on August 16, 2009

The tropics decided to get busy all at one time! UGH! Well, I'm going to break for a bit from political blogging and stare at swirls and such for a while. We've got several deadly serious potential storms right now - Ana, Bill, 91L and more waves coming off the African coast! Please, if you don't have a hurricane plan - get one! BE PREPARED! Stay safe, please! There's plenty of gurus 'round here to tell you what's going on with the storms - some good ones, some good people. In the meantime, I thought I'd drag up and old blog and update it a bit since it's an interesting, but little discussed topics during the tropical season - the MJO! So, I hope you gain some info from it and thanks in advance to all that contribute to awareness, safety and help others when hurt abounds from these devastating systems!

The National Buoy Center
850mb Vorticity
Wind Shear
24hr shear tendency
GOM/Caribbean Sea Surface Temps
Latest TWO
Latest NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

What is the MJO? - The "MJO" of the "Madden-Julian Oscillation" is a naturally occurring component of our coupled ocean-atmosphere system. It significantly affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the global Tropics and subtropics, and also strongly affects the wintertime jet stream and atmospheric circulation features over the North Pacific and western North America. As a result, it has an important impact on storminess and temperatures over the U.S. During the summer the MJO has a modulating effect on hurricane activity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Thus, it is very important to monitor and predict MJO activity, since this activity has profound implications for weather and short-term climate variability through the year.

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Figure 1: Equatorial vertical cross section of the MJO as it propagates from the Indian Ocean to the western
Pacific. Red arrows indicate direction of wind and red (blue) SST labels indicate positive (negative) SST
anomalies respectively.


The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days. An upward pulse generally reflects conditions more conduscive to atmospheric moisture. A downward pulse will tend to indicate more subsidence, sinking air and less moisture.

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There is strong year-to-year variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the ENSO cycle. Strong MJO activity is often observed during weak La Niña years or during ENSO-neutral years, while weak or absent MJO activity is typically associated with strong El Niño episodes.

200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies & Hurricanes/Typhoons



(ABOVE) Composite evolution of MJO events during the summer months together with points of origin of tropical cyclones that developed into hurricanes / typhoons (open circles). The green (brown) shading roughly corresponds to regions where convection is favored (suppressed) as represented by 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies. Composites are based on 21 events over a 35 day period. Hurricane track data is for the period JAS 1979-1997. Points of origin in each panel are for different storms.

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(ABOVE) The current velocity potential anomalies indicate large-scale divergence over parts of Africa and the Indian Ocean with areas of generally large-scale subsidence across much of the western hemisphere. Positive anomalies (brown contours) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation. Negative anomalies (green contours) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation

Although tropical cyclones occur throughout the NH warm season (typically May-November) in both the Pacific and the Atlantic basins, in any given year there are periods of enhanced / suppressed activity within the season. There is evidence that the MJO modulates this activity (particularly for the strongest storms) by providing a large-scale environment that is favorable (unfavorable) for development. The strongest tropical cyclones tend to develop when the MJO favors enhanced precipitation. As the MJO progresses eastward, the favored region for tropical cyclone activity also shifts eastward from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific and finally to the Atlantic basin.


So, what's happening NOW with the MJO?
The MJO signal is weak in the western hemisphere at this time with much subsidence over the tropical Atlantic - and that may be reflected by the various amounts of dry air we've been seeing in recent days. There is moisture activity being generated from the ITCZ and the tropical waves coming off of Africa, as well as convergence with troughs like is in the GOM right now; but, the subsidence over the ocean has been evidenced recently by the amount of dry ar. Now, the MJO pulse has largely propagated eastwards into the Indian Ocean and onwards towards the Maritimes - although the upward pulse of convection seems to be represented over the continental equatorial regions of South America and Africa. It will be interesting to see how the MJO will contribute more to the patterns of tropical rainfall during the remainder of hurricane season. Where's the MJO and what's the MJO FORECAST:



Phase diagrams for the last 40 (above) days illustrates the phase and amplitude of the MJO. Counter-clockwise movement around the diagram indicates an eastward propagating signal across eight phases from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific and later the western hemisphere. Color of lines distinguish different months and dates are annotated. The farther away from the center of the circle the stronger the MJO signal. So, the MJO appears to be coming out of Phase 1 in the Western Hemisphere and into Phase 2 in the Indian Ocean region. Again, the strength of the pulse is not very strong (as shown in the animated graphic), likely as a result of a more Nino type ENSO pattern.

(some of this info is from NOAA's CPC)

Economy In Crisis.org - America's Economic Report - Daily

I realize my blog has been very political since the first bailout bill while Bush was still POTUS in September of 2008, but his country has serious issues. We have very serious problems and they won't go away by sugarcoating them and sweeping them under the rug. We've got lots of problems, not the least of which is our debt - currently near $12,000,000,000,000 with a budget deficit this year of nearly $2,000,000,000,000 alone! We didn't get here suddenly and there are many to blame, including ourselves, that stretch across all parties and decades of variables that have helped to bring us where we are. However, all these issues have culminated and we are now fast approaching what is called "unsustainability", the point in which we can no longer meet our obligations and continue to maintain the level of government and government services that we have. Unfortunately, Washington still doesn't get it. In fact, we're only making a bad situation worse by continuing to borrow money that we can not pay back. We can't service the interest on the debt, much less theh principle. We've got to make some hard choices, some sacrifices if we're going to make it. It's our responsibility not to keep passing the growing burden on to our children and their children. Our sovereignty is at stake. Freedom is at stake! Not just for us, but for the world.

I explained it like this recently to Auburn in his blog. Now, first let me say that Auburn's a good guy and I really believe that - probably couldn't meet a better fella, but we fundamentally disagree on the direction and purpose we're headed on with our government. Ultimately, I believe he and I, and many of us want the same thing - we just disagree about how we should get there!

My post:

Quoting auburn:
MLC..its all about your Hate for the Government man... Let's focus on that nasty old government. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, bridges, highways, ports, streets, parks, the police, fire departments, the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force. Fresh water, clean air, safe food and drugs (yes, it's true, these last three have lately been compromised, but that's what happens when you put people in charge of the government who have no respect for government).

And all of these things are brought to you with your tax dollars. That's what the government does. Anyone out there who doesn't use or benefit from these things? Anyone?


You know, Aub, I do like you alright as person, but you just don't get it.

No, this is not about my "hate" for the government, not at all. It's about what the government is doing to us, what it's doing to our children and their children.

All of these things you mention - well, someone has to pay for it! They ain't F R E E! The US is $12,000,000,000,000 in debt now. We've amassed the single largest budget deficit we've ever had for just one year - nearly $2,000,000,000,000. That doesn't count what the FED is loading us up for with no transparency - trillions it is.

The tax base has shrunk. The economy has had a major contraction 40-50 percent. Millions are out of work with no prospect of getting jobs anytime soon. More will lose their jobs. The government can not fund itself now! And, it leaves us little choice but to beg other countries to loan us money, because we sure as hell aren't cutting government!

And, you don't think poor people will pay for this? They will - either directly or indirectly. It's called "hidden" taxation! It happens all the time.

Tell you what, look at it this way. I don't know your circumstances. You may be rich for all I know, but let's assume for a moment that you are more like me and understand struggle. Let's go out and buy us the fastest, prettiest red, most expensive sportscar available. $100,000 grand maybe? $200,000 maybe? Well, I don't know about you, but I don't have that kind of cash in the bank and don't have any brother-in-law deals I can work either. So, that means if we're gonna race, that we've got to borrow the monies for that car. Trouble is, I can't make the notes on that car.

...and neither can the government!



Really, it doesn't matter how much healthcare we're giving away. If grandpa has to have a pacemaker, he can thank China for it - because that's how he got it! China effectively loaned him the money to keep his ol' ticker running! There's no other way to look at it - that's just how it is.

Eventually, all debts have to be paid or there is collapse or default; and, when you consider the size of our debt, the tab will be hefty! We don't have the ability to pay it. We are broke! We can't service even the interest on the debt, much less reduce the principle. The Treasury is printing worthless money - play money, monopoly money - same thing. Unfortunately, the Chinese won't accept monopoly money.

...and, scratching a few quarters from between the seat cushions of that sportscar ain't gonna help either!





HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING: Sebastionjer's blog - "Life Is Not A Theory!" and GetReal's blog - "Obama Healthcare Truth"

U.S. may need another $250,000,000,000 stimulus - Roubini
"It might be in the $200-$250 billion range -- not too small, not too big," he added. But if the next stimulus is too large, Roubini warned, financial markets would start to get worried about U.S. fiscal sustainability, with "severe" negative consequences for bond markets.

Unemployment nears 21 percent
Junk message in a bottle?
Please help DEFEAT CAP & TRADE in the US Senate here!

BLOG RULES: Simple - Keep it absolutely civil towards fellow bloggers. And, don't get heavy on the partisanship - it's quite obvious that corrupt, petty, inept, greedy, power-lustful politicians are plentiful on both sides of the aisle. It's ok to take jabs at them - either party, any official or candidate; but, leave the total "blame game" out of this - it's ALL of them, everyone! If you think otherwise, then you probably don't want to bring it in here! Informational statements in this blog by me are generally backed by valid and usually corroberating links. Newcomers are welcome to this blog but are scrutinized more heavily with their conjecture and perspective until I discern the nature of their posting habits. Regulars have more leeway even with large and differing opinions, provided their posts are not made with any personal attack or such innuendo. Otherwise, those who have not proven themselves to me (and that's all that matters) may be considered pot-stirrers, trolls or ban circumventors and are subject to being banned without warning. The ban may be relieved at anytime at my discretion pending review of the blogger's posting history and perspective in other blogs - should I see them. This is an adult blog for the maturely vested, not a juvenile hall or playground. Adults who act like young, irresponsible children will be asked to leave or be banned.

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Gov't bulldozing 4closed homes?

By: moonlightcowboy, 9:46 PM GMT on August 08, 2009

Readers should consider this as the opinion of the author. In this case the author is simply presenting the question, based on past government actions, of whether we can expect to see something similar regarding housing - definitely food for thought. And, especially since there is considerable mention in political and economic circles that if a "good bank-bad bank" facility were set up, these toxic assets (which include foreclosed housing) could be destroyed by the government. Certainly, practices have already shown that the private sector will destroy these toxic assets, but with the likely aspect of a government-run toxic bank being set up, more are likely to postpone housing destruction until the taxpayer can pick up the tabs for the both the toxic loans and the responsibility of destroying the homes.


Cash for Clunkers Could Lead to Government Bulldozing Homes



A home being demolished in Flint, MI!


The National Inflation Association today released the following statement to its members:

"The United States government's "cash for clunkers" program, which was just expanded by $2 billion on Thursday, exemplifies the stupidity of politicians in Washington today. It's insane to think that destroying perfectly good and valuable assets, cars that people can drive, will help save our economy. This program is digging our economy into a deeper hole that we will never be able to dig out of.

We do not have an automobile crisis in the U.S., the average American household already has 2.3 cars. The automobile industry needed to collapse in order to build a new viable auto industry from the ground-floor. By artificially boosting car sales, the government is preventing the free market from cleaning out the excesses in the industry.

During the Great Depression, millions of Americans couldn't afford to buy food. With food prices falling and huge surpluses of food building, the government decided to pass the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 which forced farmers to destroy crops and livestock in an attempt to artificially drive up food prices. The plan backfired and led to millions of Americans starving, prolonging the Great Depression for another six years.

The current financial crisis in America was caused by both the U.S. government and American people getting into too much debt. Not only is the government getting deeper into debt by purchasing used cars for $4,500 and destroying them, but Americans are being forced to get deeper into debt to buy new cars. The used cars being purchased and destroyed were owned by Americans outright. The free market would've encouraged Americans to drive these cars until they stopped working, while rebuilding their savings. The government is preventing this from happening and doing greater damage to the economy.

Four out of the top five models of new cars being purchased as part of "cash for clunkers" are foreign cars. Therefore, very little of this newly printed money is going to the bailed out U.S. automobile manufacturers. We are increasing our trade deficit with Japan and other foreign countries at a time when we should be manufacturing cars that we export to the rest of the world, so that we can shrink our trade deficit.

With all of the new government employees being hired to administrate "cash for clunkers", the true cost is over $6,000 per car. Most modern day economists featured by the mainstream media say "cash for clunkers" will be a huge boost to the economy, because it will help lower unemployment and increase our GDP. It's amazing how they can phrase the program as a success, when it is only leading our country further down the path of hyperinflation. The misguided and irresponsible phrase in the mainstream media will encourage politicians to come up with more stupid programs for other so-called crises.

Real Estate prices in America still haven't fallen to below year 2000 levels because the banks that are foreclosing on properties are sitting on these properties and not selling them(FOOTNOTE). After banks get the required infrastructure and manpower in place and begin selling them, Real Estate prices will fall to unimaginably low levels. Will the government repeat their mistakes with the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 and "cash for clunkers" and begin purchasing these houses from banks only to bulldoze them?

There have already been isolated cases in places such as Victorville, California, where banks have destroyed nearly complete new homes instead of completing and selling them. In Flint, Michigan, local government officials are promoting "the concept of shrinking Flint in order to make it stronger", by bulldozing 40% of the community. What is to stop the federal government from destroying already built existing homes, to prevent them from becoming listed on the market? It sounds like insanity, and it is, but if the government destroyed food and is now destroying cars, houses are likely next."

SOURCE: National Inflation Association

The National Inflation Association is an organization that is dedicated to preparing Americans for hyperinflation. The NIA offers free membership at http://www.inflation.us and provides its members with articles about the economy and inflation, news stories, important charts not shown by the mainstream media; YouTube videos featuring Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, and others; and profiles of gold, silver, and agriculture companies that we believe could prosper in an inflationary environment.


FOOTNOTE: That is until the "good bank-bad bank" scenario is set up by the government; then, US taxpayers will likely be paying for these homes to be destroyed. Ironically, taxpayers were ultimately the ones paying to have many of them built, too! Go figure!

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING: Sebastionjer's blog - "Life Is Not A Theory!" and GetReal's blog - "Obama Healthcare Truth"

U.S. may need another $250,000,000,000 stimulus - Roubini
"It might be in the $200-$250 billion range -- not too small, not too big," he added. But if the next stimulus is too large, Roubini warned, financial markets would start to get worried about U.S. fiscal sustainability, with "severe" negative consequences for bond markets.

Unemployment nears 21 percent
Junk message in a bottle?
Please help DEFEAT CAP & TRADE in the US Senate here!

BLOG RULES: Simple - Keep it absolutely civil towards fellow bloggers. And, don't get heavy on the partisanship - it's quite obvious that corrupt, petty, inept, greedy, power-lustful politicians are plentiful on both sides of the aisle. It's ok to take jabs at them - either party, any official or candidate; but, leave the total "blame game" out of this - it's ALL of them, everyone! If you think otherwise, then you probably don't want to bring it in here! Informational statements in this blog by me are generally backed by valid and usually corroberating links. Newcomers are welcome to this blog but are scrutinized more heavily with their conjecture and perspective until I discern the nature of their posting habits. Regulars have more leeway even with large and differing opinions, provided their posts are not made with any personal attack or such innuendo. Otherwise, those who have not proven themselves to me (and that's all that matters) may be considered pot-stirrers, trolls or ban circumventors and are subject to being banned without warning. The ban may be relieved at anytime at my discretion pending review of the blogger's posting history and perspective in other blogs - should I see them. This is an adult blog for the maturely vested, not a juvenile hall or playground. Adults who act like young, irresponsible children will be asked to leave or be banned.

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21 PERCENT + 247,000 more

By: moonlightcowboy, 7:59 AM GMT on August 02, 2009

We've lost 100s of 1000s of jobs with more losses expected as the economy continues to contract despite government bailouts and stimulus efforts. Officially, the number of unemployed persons (14.7 million) and the unemployment rate (9.5 percent) were little changed in June. Since the start of the recession, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 7.2 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 4.6 percentage points. That's roughly 379,000 jobs lost each month since the "recession" was officially declared in December 2007. But, that's not the complete truth!

Since the Great Depression politicians have manipulated unemployment statistics to reflect the politics of the day. That's no secret and it changed again during the Clinton administration to reflect more employment by changing the methodology by which numbers are measured. To compare unemployment numbers against historical figures, today, one must use the U6 values for unemployment that more accurately reflects actual numbers. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses U3 values to declare official numbers such as the 9.5 percent recently reported. So, the numbers and measurements vary considerably depending on methodology and perspective. In my opinion the unemployment numbers are considerably worse!


Chart of U.S. Unemployment

Layoffs of this magnitude are more than a mere shot across the bow of the economy; they’re actually a direct hit amid ship – below the water line, meaning that sinking is inevitable. Fully 70% of all domestic economic activity is powered by consumer spending. People who are unemployed cannot buy homes, don’t shop heavily in retail stores, cut back on groceries, and are loath to take on added risk. LINK


There are more part-time employed now included in unemployment data which means the number of full-time equivalent less the difference is not being counted as a job loss. Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 4.4 million. If you consider the difference even allowing for 31 hours of part-time status, the number of full-time job losses would conservatively be about 990,000, but probably higher considering that not all part-time workers would receive 31 hours of employment.

Additionally, 2.2 million were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months, but they were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Further, there were 793,000 discouraged workers in June, up by 373,000 from a year ago. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. Then, there's another 1.4 million that had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

So, when you add them all up the total number of unemployed is likely much closer to 20,083,000 or 13 percent unemployment by official numbers within the considered 153,993,000 strong labor force. And, that's another thing - the "labor force" and how it is measured. The BLS says the labor force is based on the civilian non-institutional population 16 years old and over. Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, persons on active duty in the Armed Forces, school, retired or have family responsibilities that exclude them from being counted in the labor force.

Another significant factor when considering unemployment in my opinion is the number of illegal immigrants that are no longer working. Obviously, they are not part of the official labor force, but they too have had jobs. There are an estimated 15-21,000,000 illegals here. If you take a rough, similar measure of US official statistics (about 1/2 the population is the labor force) and plug in the corresponding numbers even with the lowest estimates and multiply by the same percentage unemployment, it shows that another 1,000,000 or more illegal immigrants may now be unemployed too, putting unofficial numbers well over 21,000,000 and still without the manipulations to the unemployment statistics that would yield the more accurate U6 comparative figures. Kind of daunting, huh? Yes, I know, these are still people, people with families, but they also add more pressures to government services, causing addtional problems. But nonetheless, just U6 statistics alone (without illegals) are nearer to 16.5 percent unemployment. And it gets worse. If you include the people that the government doesn’t even count – such as unemployed farm workers, the idle self-employed, and workers in private homes – the unemployment rate approaches an astonishing 21 percent (top line in the chart above) - these numbers are approaching depression-like statistics!





Still, and fortunately, many are able to receive unemployment benefits and that number too has grown substantially, now over 6,197,000. But, here is the real kicker - statistics that no one is mentioning at all. In fact, the administration takes advantage of this category without mentioning it and uses the numbers in a misleading way to make it sound like jobs are being saved and/or created - and, that is the number of people falling off the rolls of unemployment benefits, even extended unemployment benefits. These people, still without jobs, are used in another smoke and mirrors effort to make things look better than they really are. Again, you won't hear this from the White House, the BLS or from the MSM.

And, here is where we find some unusually alarming numbers within those that have fallen off the rolls, no longer receiving benefits. Hold on to your love handles because these numbers will literally shock you! Economic recovery? Recession over? Like they say, if you'll believe that, I've got some fire-sale, rock-bottom, real bargain Arizona beachfront property for sale! Each year (except for 2008) the US averages about 50,000 that fall off the unemployment rolls. And, that's an average, long-standing, generally accepted and official figure. Now, by this September - one month away - 500,000 are expected to lose UC benefits! And, it doesn't end there - by the end of the year that total is expected to reach 1,500,000 losing extended UC benefits! So for now, there are about 2,656,879 people on extended federal benefits compared to 127,438 a year ago! That's a 2000 percent increase! And, when the expected 1,500,000 come off the UC rolls at year end, that will be near a whopping 3000 percent more losing benefits year over 2007! Don't let the administration and the media hoodwink you into believing new jobs have been created when these poor souls fall of the UC rolls! Even the Federal Reserve has said recently that it will likely be five or six years or better, before we see any real net new jobs.

Folks, we're facing an emergency, a catastrophe! More contraction is on the way. There will be more foreclosures, less consumption, retail closings, defaults, additional pressure on courts and other civil services. All of this will perpetuate more job losses and further contraction. And this time bailouts may anesthetize, but it will only delay and prolong the agony we've yet to realize and endure. Eventually, someone has to tell us the hard truth - we're facing a depression, or certainly a much extended deep, hurtful and prolonged recession - one that in the present, has no immediate plans to create any real jobs, much less permanent jobs. We've no solid plan to find our sea legs and right our fiscal ship - it's loaded and sinking, full of the holes of self-defeating debt, bad trade policies and a worn-out bureaucracy that still believes borrowing and spending is the lifeline. We're sailing over abyssal waters with no leadership at the helm to find calm, safe, smart and bountiful harbor.

If you're in debt, get out. If you have a job, hold on to it with all your might. If you have money, don't spend it foolishly. If you don't have any, get some. Hard times are straight ahead - the fiscal, prudent, sharp-witted, strong and faithful will get through it - and get through it we will, eventually. I've no doubts about that; but, like the song says, "we've got to hurt before we heal!"



An interesting read (via credit GetReal) from Bob Chapman: Causes of Depression Yet To Be Addressed


Information for this blog came from the following links:
US Bureau of Labor and Statistis
Mish's Trend Analysis
US Census Bureau
ShadowGovernmentStatistics
Federal Reserve

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING: Sebastionjer's blog - "Life Is Not A Theory!" and GetReal's blog - "Obama Healthcare Truth"

U.S. may need another $250,000,000,000 stimulus - Roubini
"It might be in the $200-$250 billion range -- not too small, not too big," he added. But if the next stimulus is too large, Roubini warned, financial markets would start to get worried about U.S. fiscal sustainability, with "severe" negative consequences for bond markets.

Junk message in a bottle?
Please help DEFEAT CAP & TRADE in the US Senate here!

BLOG RULES: Simple - Keep it absolutely civil towards fellow bloggers. And, don't get heavy on the partisanship - it's quite obvious that corrupt, petty, inept, greedy, power-lustful politicians are plentiful on both sides of the aisle. It's ok to take jabs at them - either party, any official or candidate; but, leave the total "blame game" out of this - it's ALL of them, everyone! If you think otherwise, then you probably don't want to bring it in here! Links or statements in this blog by me are generally backed by valid links unless it is a post of perspective. Newcomers are welcome to this blog but are scrutinized more heavily with their conjecture and perspective until I discern the nature of their posting habits. Regulars have more leeway even with large and differing opinions, provided their posts are not made with any personal attack or such innuendo. Otherwise, those who have not proven themselves to me (and that's all that matters) may be considered pot-stirrers, trolls or ban circumventors and are subject to being banned without warning. The ban may be relieved at anytime at my discretion pending review of the blogger's posting history and perspective in other blogs - should I see them. This is an adult blog for the maturely vested, not a juvenile hall or playground. Adults who act like young, irresponsible children will be asked to leave or be banned.

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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

About moonlightcowboy

"There is no heavier burden than a great potential." - Charles Schultz, in the Peanut's character of Linus.