moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

xG = Gaston still a threat?

By: moonlightcowboy, 4:29 AM GMT on July 25, 2010

xG = Gaston! I'm still a dissenter! xG is still spinning, popping convection, albeit with weak vorticity. And, it's in a tropical hot tub - anything can happen down there - a butterfly can bump his butt in those conditions and we could be looking at a major! ;) 92L in the eastern Caribbean, Igor and more waves coming!

I've posted graphics that update, inks for shear, mid-level dust, etc. Several systems out there, will be out there for some serious potential.









RGB LOOP of the tATL (nighttime viewing)



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



Season just getting ready to POP

2010 HURRICANE SEASON:
Think the tropics are slow, might be a season similar to the past couple of years? Not likely. More likely: BOOM! And, it catches many off-guard! Nearly every weather organization had forecasted an above active tropical season this year – in fact the highest number of storms since 2005. And, whether it's active or not, it only takes one to be a killer - and it doesn't have to be a CAT 5 to be a killer. Tropical Storms and heavy rainfall can be just as deadly.

SST’s have compared to the 2005 season, perhaps more pronounced over the entire tropical region. And, TCHP may in fact be higher than the disastrous summer five years ago. So, while it’s been relatively quiet so far, we’re just beginning to head into the heart of the season – it’s a long way until November 30. Odds are there’ll be several storms with all the pent up heat energy in the central Atlantic. We're fully into the Cape Verde season and activity is picking up.

Unfortunately, the lull may be rocking some to sleep, and that’s my fear every year. We see some initial activity, then a lull, then boom the CV’s crank up and someone, somewhere could be staring at a developing, possibly major, landfalling system - and finding people unprepared. I am all for research, improving forecasting, etc; but, I think there could be much more effort made to awareness and preparedness. Never before have our coastlines been so populated and full of construction. As we saw with Katrina a major storm can literally wipe clean a coastline for miles - devastating and tragic.


Models - SPAGHETTI TRACKS.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY



72-HOUR sfc forecast
TWO
North Atlantic Discussion
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
LATEST STEERING CURRENTS
Latest SFC Map


CIMSS site

M I M I C Imagery




TROPIC-WIDE VISIBLE LOOP





(ABOVE) Mid-level WATER VAPOR (Saharan Air Layer)

EUMETSAT DUST PRODUCT, imo, makes the best sat presentation for dust concentration. The CIMSS SAL product presents both, dry air and dust, and, imo, doesn't accurately reflect, what people often interpret as dust.

(NOTE: There is a considerable difference between "SAL" and "dust." SAL can consist of dry air and dry air can be found in various atmospheric layers. Conversely, dust exists largely in the mid-levels.)




The 2010 Hurricane Season is really just beginning! We reach the peak of season on September 10th, so, more than 1/2 the season remains. Get a plan if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss plans with them. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination. Exchange plans, numbers, email addresses and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around. Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of people’s lives. You can make a difference! "Awareness, Preparedness and Safety" should be the game plan!

MLCgoodnight4.gif

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'The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan




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Bonnie could become 2nd cane

By: moonlightcowboy, 4:07 AM GMT on July 16, 2010

TS BONNIE could become 2010's 2nd hurricane! c



Ok, we've officially got TS Bonnie now, as the system took advantage of the slightly warmer water sfc temps as its gradually moved wnw, nw, since last evening. I mentioned that slightly northwards tug from the ULL would take place, but that, that would change as the ULL pulled away, and that is what has happened. Plus, as the ULL has moved to the west, then wsw, I believe Bonnie will move towards it still. That pretty much puts the motion right up the gut of the Straits.

Certainly, it could edge a bit further north and directly impact the Keys, sFL as it passes into the GOM. Obviously, those areas are going to get high surf, some surge, lots of rain and flooding as well as high winds. Strengthening is likely with the warmer 30c waters of the Gulf Stream although I expect it to be probably gradual still.

Bonnie is still having trouble keeping enough convection/pressure overhead to grow its fairly small llc. That is evidenced by the almost de-coupled, stronger mid-level circ which is still being influenced by the departing TUTT's southerly upper level flow. 850mb sfc reflection confirms the llc's cont'd, but improving struggle to strenghen at the sfc - elongated north to south. Mid and upper level vorticity is considerably more symmetrical, but not completely concentric with the sfc. However, that is apt to change with little shear in front of the llc. Bonnie should be able soon to create enough moisture lift from the sfc now and sustain its convection overhead, get vertical and strengthen - all of which reinforce the tropical machine. Convergence and divergence should improve through the evening into dmax.

Depending on fwd speed, it's still entirely possible if it moves more west than north thru the Straits and in the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, that it could possibly spin up near or at hurricane force winds, higher gusts. A fast fwd speed will not be as helpful for development, imo, which also means too close proximity to the ULL. The key, still, is going to be the distance between the two - more distance, more strengthening possible.

There is some higher shear in the ncentral GOM, but a particularly noted feature in the GOM and likely in Bonnie's future path is an upper-level anti-cyclone which will service to bring overhead shear to a minimum and aid ventilation, allowing for additional strengthening.



Of particular interest is also how the high is building back in and where the western periphery will guide Bonnie's track. The high has been trending further west. With its good, mid and upper level spin, it felt the influence of the ULL above it as well as the natural poleward tug with coriolis, causing the bump northwards. However, the low level (and all layers really) steering flow still suggests a more westward track with some certainty.

It's been pushing up against the 1016mb high pressure, and we can already see that it's found the northerly barrier. I believe we're seeing the high pressure strengthen and Bonnie will track more westwards, then wnw around the periphery of that high. Landfall where? The stronger it gets, the more northerly tug it'll feel, expanding outflow and pressing further up against the high. Eventually, Bonnie's track will be more certain once we see how strong it will get, and how variable the western edge of the high is as it tracks through the GOM.

At this point, and it's early still, but my thinking for track is from NOLA to COLA, could be further west but I don't think any further east. Nonetheless, Bonnie's neast quadrant will pass south of the largest area of oil spill, and those winds will push water AND OIL towards the beaches all along the coastline of the northern GOM - not a good sign at all, even with a weak system. Seas along sFL are forecasts to be upwards of 10-12 feet and maybe higher. And, that is certainly not a good sign either for DWH, the oil, etc, as it pushes more water with longer distance. We'll have to watch that, cause a growing system with an expanding windfield can create a large volume of surge - not good for inland areas at all.

Another thing to watch for is just how far west it does track - the loop current is out there and a recently spun-off large warm eddy - all of which will add fuel for intensification as well.



Certainly, Bonnie can be formidable! A major? Probably not, depending on fwd speed, loop and eddys, shear (and if it takes advantage of the anti-cyclone in front of it, etc. But, it's not impossible either. And, as far as I am concerned, a TS or Cat 1 will be catastrophic for the coastlines and inland with all this oil. It's gonna be interesting to see how she improves this evening - whether she gets really vertical, sustains convection overhead, etc. If that happens, and it could, we may even see a Cane come morning before it enters the GOM.

I'm sure I've left something out, got some things wrong, but quicks obs and thoughts. And, there's enough smart folks on here to get you the right info - just been a hobby for many years. Both, intriguing and deadly, and always been in awe of their power.

If you're on Keys, sFL or the nGOM and you've not made plans, now would be a fine time to get started. :)


Season just getting ready to POP

2010 HURRICANE SEASON:
Think the tropics are slow, might be a season similar to the past couple of years? Not likely. More likely: BOOM! Wait – BOOM, BOOM, BOOM some more! Nearly every weather organization has forecast an above active tropical season this year – in fact the highest number of storms since 2005. SST’s have compared to the 2005 season, perhaps more pronounced over the entire tropical region. And, TCHP may in fact be higher than the disastrous summer five years ago. So, while it’s been relatively quiet so far, we’re just beginning to head into the heart of the season – it’s a long way until November 30. Odds are there’ll be several storms with all the pent up heat energy in the central Atlantic.

We’ve had some activity already, fairly substantial invests, questionable TD discernment and one hurricane ALEX, and now TS Bonnie. And, while we’ve hit a bit of a lull in the tropics, awaiting the return of the MJO pulse from its travels around the globe and ITCZ to trend more northwards, action is likely to pick up swiftly as the Cape Verde system arrives. Currently, storm activity along the ITCZ is a bit low in latitude, coupled with substanance in front of the tropical waves rolling off the African coast to get enough surface lift to create enough up/down drafts with enough speed to help create rotating spin and coriolis. However, that is all likely to change as soon as the upward pulse of the MJO returns and the ITCZ drifts northwards.

Unfortunately, the lull may be rocking some to sleep, and that’s my fear every year. We see some initial activity, then a lull, then boom the CV’s crank up and someone, somewhere could be staring at a developing, possibly major, landfalling system - and finding people unprepared. I am all for research, improving forecasting, etc; but, I think there could be much more effort made to awareness and preparedness. Never before have our coastlines been so populated and full of construction. As we saw with Katrina a major storm can literally wipe clean a coastline for miles - devastating and tragic.




TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY



72-HOUR sfc forecast
TWO
North Atlantic Discussion
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
LATEST STEERING CURRENTS
Latest SFC Map




TROPIC-WIDE VISIBLE LOOP





(ABOVE) Mid-level WATER VAPOR (Saharan Air Layer)

EUMETSAT DUST PRODUCT, imo, makes the best sat presentation for dust concentration. The CIMSS SAL product presents both, dry air and dust, and, imo, doesn't accurately reflect, what people often interpret as dust.

(NOTE: There is a considerable difference between "SAL" and "dust." SAL can consist of dry air and dry air can be found in various atmospheric layers. Conversely, dust exists largely in the mid-levels.)



width=

The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.


The 2010 Hurricane Season is really just beginning! We reach the peak of season on September 10th, so, more than 1/2 the season remains. Get a plan if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss plans with them. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination. Exchange plans, numbers, email addresses and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around. Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of people’s lives. You can make a difference! "Awareness, Preparedness and Safety" should be the game plan!

MLCgoodnight4.gif

BLOG RULES <---click here!

Photobucket


'The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan




visitor stats


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

About moonlightcowboy

"There is no heavier burden than a great potential." - Charles Schultz, in the Peanut's character of Linus.