moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

Things still spinning...

By: moonlightcowboy, 5:02 AM GMT on September 12, 2010

92L "seems" to be getting its act together and an llc may be becoming evident now at about 16n,70w. But, convection is still waxing and waning. There's excellent upper diffluence, but the system is still lacking low level convergence - without both of these it will be more difficult for it to organize. That rotating coc has got to get itself down nearer or to the surface and tap the waters in the tropical hot tub to get its tropical engine running. Otherwise, subsidence and some remaining dry air may continue to further inhibit development.

However, I'm thinking it's starting to get going and we'll see gradual development as it clips westwards at steady clip of 17 mph. A bit further west (about 75w) and perhaps 92L will be out of the dead zone and development will finally occur. Steering suggests a blocking pattern towards the CONUS and 92L may wind up being a problem for the Yucatan area. The trough out in the Atlantic also suggests that Igor is still likely to get tugged to sea, but he could actually track a bit further west, reminiscent of Earl getting closer to the shoreline. It still a ways out and a bit early to discern a track. But who knows? I sure don't, just guessing. There have been many interesting and unusual dynamics this season, imo, and especially when it comes to cyclogenesis.









RGB LOOP of the tATL (nighttime viewing)



The TPC 72-hr surface forecast map.



Models - SPAGHETTI TRACKS.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY


72-HOUR sfc forecast
TWO
North Atlantic Discussion
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
LATEST STEERING CURRENTS
Latest SFC Map


CIMSS site

M I M I C Imagery




TROPIC-WIDE VISIBLE LOOP




(ABOVE) Mid-level WATER VAPOR (Saharan Air Layer)

EUMETSAT DUST PRODUCT, imo, makes the best sat presentation for dust concentration. The CIMSS SAL product presents both, dry air and dust, and, imo, doesn't accurately reflect, what people often interpret as dust.

(NOTE: There is a considerable difference between "SAL" and "dust." SAL can consist of dry air and dry air can be found in various atmospheric layers. Conversely, dust exists largely in the mid-levels.)


2010 HURRICANE SEASON:
Nearly every weather organization had forecasted an above active tropical season this year – in fact the highest number of storms since 2005. And, whether it's active or not, it only takes one to be a killer - and it doesn't have to be a CAT 5 to be a killer. Tropical Storms and heavy rainfall can be just as deadly. SST’s have compared to the 2005 season, perhaps more pronounced over the entire tropical region. And, TCHP may in fact be higher than the disastrous summer five years ago.

We reached the climatological peak of season on September 10th, so, more than 1/2 the season remains. We've had 9 systems, if we have nine more we could easily end up with 18 and have a very "active" season. It’s still a long way until November 30. Odds are there’ll still be several storms with all the pent up heat energy in the central Atlantic. We're fully into the Cape Verde season and activity is cranking and we're likely to see more homegrown systems, too, as season nears end.

I am all for research, improving forecasting, etc; but, I think there could be much more effort made to awareness and preparedness. Never before have our coastlines been so populated and full of construction. As we saw with Katrina a major storm can literally wipe clean a coastline for miles - devastating and tragic. Pay attention, more storms on the way!

Get a plan if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss plans with them. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination. Exchange plans, numbers, email addresses and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around. Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of people’s lives. You can make a difference! "Awareness, Preparedness and Safety" should be the game plan!

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'The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan




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. . . remembering 9-1-1

By: moonlightcowboy, 5:48 AM GMT on September 11, 2010

. . . a song about appreciating what you have, because the wolf is always at the door.




REMEMBERING the fallen of 911, their families and the Christian principles on which our country was birthed, in which our Constitution was written. That's what freedom means! A freedom not just for the nation, but one given freely to each of us by the ONE - the one who paid the price in advance, long ago. All we have to do, the nation has to do is accept Him. That's it - the rest is just bunting, cloth, cotton maybe (and likely made in China these days).



I love my country because of what it has stood for, for the Christian principles it has championed and shared with the world - not the way it's been listing.




The 2010 Hurricane Season is really just beginning! We've reached the peak of season on September 10th, so, at least 1/2 the season remains. Get a plan if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss plans with them. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination. Exchange plans, numbers, email addresses and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around. Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of people’s lives. You can make a difference! "Awareness, Preparedness and Safety" should be the game plan!

MLCgoodnight4.gif

BLOG RULES <---click here!

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'The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan




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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

About moonlightcowboy

"There is no heavier burden than a great potential." - Charles Schultz, in the Peanut's character of Linus.