moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

MJO timing should ramp season activity

By: moonlightcowboy, 9:10 PM GMT on August 10, 2013

I'm still reasoning an above average active season for several reasons, but mostly based on the simple logic of the moisture-enhancing, upward pulse of MJO forecast to be entering the basin.

The general rule of thumb is when one basin is active the other is more likely to be inactive. Right now we've got systems in the Pacific but none in the Atlantic which would seem to support that theorem, and support the relationship between the MJO and tropical activity no matter which basin. However, the MJO is currently propagating eastwards now as shown here in blue (positive pulse):



IMO, the MJO forecast graphic below indicates a weak upward pulse as it enters the Atlantic basin supporting thoughts of low activity through a good portion of August. But, further into the month as the MJO progresses eastwards, the pulse becomes more amplified across the MDR, and stronger even as it nears the African coast. So, it may actually be late August before we see any real uptick in activity.



However, what catches my attention in the last MJO graphic is the delayed but continued propagation forecast late in the month in the eastern Pacific which shows a much stronger ascending pulse as we head into September. That could indicate a substantial uptick or even a ramp-up in activity towards the heart of the season.

In the next couple of weeks I think we'll see limited activity with a few homegrown systems spinning up in the GoM and Caribbean, then followed by a brief lull, and then, as the delayed, stronger upward pulse enters the basin in September, we could see prime moisture conditions for development again in the GoM and Caribbean, and as the strong pulse moves further eastwards, interaction with the African twaves should heat up as we approach the very heart of the season in mid-September.

Of course, even the MJO models can hardly be reliable that far out. However, if that verifies, and upper level conditions are favorable as the pulse moves eastwards, that may lend credence to the forecast above average active season.

It would be interesting to know if there's any data supporting the relationship of any CONUS troughing to the MJO when it's in the basin. Saturday morning, Skyepony mentioned the MJO's upward pulse in the basin might make for more intense troughing and also spawning the cut-off lows for spinning up at the tail of the troughs. That makes perfect sense, imo. And, the MJO may also possibly elongate those troughs and even affect their location and shape. And, as Skye also noted in her post, considering the cooler CONUS temperatures this season, this may be a signal of more troughing to come yet.

Until now, I've been quite curiously concerned that the B/A High would funnel CV systems into the Caribbean and GoM, and it still may, but much is going to depend on the strength of the MJO pulse as it propagates eastwards over the next month. Of course, storm tracks will also depend on the strength of any maturing system and its latitudinal position in relationship to the timing of any troughs.

We will see soon enough. Have a plan, and be ready! ;)

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STRANDED, & now let me get this straight...

By: moonlightcowboy, 8:38 PM GMT on August 09, 2013



VAN MORRISON
"Stranded"


"I'm stranded at the edge of the world
It's a world I don't know
Got no where to go
Feels like I'm stranded

And I'm stranded between that ol' devil and the deep blue sea
And nobody's gonna tell me, tell me what, what time it is

Everyday, everyday, it's hustle, hustle time, hustle time
Everyday and every way, one more, one more mountain to climb

It's leaving me stranded
In my own little island
With my eyes open wide
But I'm feeling stranded

Every, every, everyday, it's hustle time
Every way, one more mountain to climb

I'm stranded between the devil and the deep blue sea
There ain't no where else to be
'Cept right here and I'm stranded"








Put The Lime In The Coconut
Harry Nilsson

Brother bought a coconut, he bought it for a dime
His sister had another one, she paid it for a lime.
She put the lime in the coconut, she drank them both up
She put the lime in the coconut, she drank them both up
She put the lime in the coconut, she drank them both up
She put the lime in the coconut, she called the doctor, woke him up,

And said, "Doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say, Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?
I say, Doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say, Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?"

"Now let me get this straight ",

Put the lime in the coconut, you drank them both up
Put the lime in the coconut, you drank them both up
Put the lime in the coconut, you drank them both up
Put the lime in the coconut, you called your doctor, woke him up,

And say, 'Doctor, ain't there nothing I can take,
I say, Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?
I say, Doctor, doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say, Doctor, dooooctor, to relieve this belly ache?'

Put the lime in the coconut, drink them both together,
Put the lime in the coconut, then you feel better,
Put the lime in the coconut, drink them both up,
Put the lime in the coconut, and call me in the morning
Wouh wouh wouh wouh wouh

Brother bought a coconut, he bought it for a dime
His sister had another one, she paid it for a lime.
She put the lime in the coconut, she drank them both up,
She put the lime in the coconut, she called the doctor, woke him up,

Say "Doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say, Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?
I say, Doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say Doctor! let me get this straight".

You put the lime in the coconut, drink them both up,
You put the lime in the coconut, drink them both up,
You put the lime in the coconut, drink them both up,
Put the lime in the coconut, you such a silly woman!,

Put the lime in the coconut, drink them both together,
Put the lime in the coconut, then you feel better.
Put the lime in the coconut, drink them both down
Put the lime in the coconut, and call me in the morning

Woo Woo, ain't there nothin' you can take, I say
Woo Woo, to relieve my belly ache,
You say woo woo ain't there nothin' I can take, I say
Woo woo, to relieve your belly ache,

You say yah yah, ain't there nothin' I can take, I say
Waah waah, to relieve this belly ache,
I say doctor!, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say doctor!, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say doctor!, ain't there nothin' I can take,
I say Doctor!, you such a silly woman!,

Put the lime in the coconut, drink them both together,
Put the lime in the coconut, then you feel better,
Put the lime in the coconut, drink them both up,
Put the lime in the coconut, and call me in the moooooorning,

Yes, you call me in the morning,
If you call me in the morning, then"





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Spin some music if you'd like, the heart of hurricane season is just ahead, be prepared! Enjoy the time! :)


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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

About moonlightcowboy

"There is no heavier burden than a great potential." - Charles Schultz, in the Peanut's character of Linus.