Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.
By: tropicfreak, 6:28 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
It has been 4 months since my last blog post. I think I'll get back to blogging.
There is an area of disturbed weather that just moved off the African coast. There is a small rotation in the storm. Just something to keep an eye on. The wave has shown light to moderate convection, shear is low and the waters are warm. The best chance for development will be after this weekend. There have been many impressive waves coming off Africa. As you can see below there's some scattered convextion and looks disorgainized. But I think it should regain strength once it gets close to the Carribean.
There is also another area of showers and thunderstorms in the central GOM. But it should move north into LA bringing some much needed rain to these folks. There is also another area of thunder storms just south of the main system with good convection. It will probably not develop despite very warm GOM waters. There is a slight chance though.
Update on Tropics/92L
The storm that everybody's been monitoring came off the African coast monday night and was declared an invest shortly afterward. The storm is under 5-10 knots of shear which is favorable and shear is forcasted to be low ahead of 92L. SST's are warm enough and is also warm ahead of it. Some of the models are forcasting 92L to develop into a TD Friday and turn out to sea however the track of the storm will depend on whether it goes into the carribean and impact land or the US or turn out to sea and become a "fish" storm. It has a pretty good circulation however convection hasn't been all that strong. If it survives the next couple of days then it'll develop into a TD.
Tropical Storm Bertha and 93L
What was 92L formed into a TD and then eventually became a TS. But there are no threats to the US and the only threats are the outer bnds impacting Bermuda and high waves. Small 93L will not develop and it has no surface circulation and shear is 15-20 knots and is forcasted to increase to 30 knots. However some models are indicating that a wave will develop in the GOM by monday. But in the meantime we'll just have to wait and see.
Well we have our first hurricane of the season Hurricane Bertha. Bertha reached hurricane status earlier this morning
and is strengthening. It is currently a strong Category 1 hurricane with winds up to 90 mph. It should reach Cat 2 status this afternoon. Bertha entered favorable SST's and has gained strength despite being in cooler waters staying as a tropical storm. The waters it's in is 28 degrees which is over 26 degrees Celsius. The track is a little uncertain because there's a high near bermuda and should force bertha more to the west but there's a trough exiting the east coast Thursday and it might curve bertha out to sea. But many models are saying including the GFS that the trough won't be strong enough to curve Hurricane Bertha out to sea so it could hit the carolinas most likely NC then come up here to VA. It's far away from land so a lot can change in 5-6 days.
Hurricane Bertha coinsidences
On July 12,1996 Hurricane Bertha made landfall near Wilmington NC. and eventually came up here in VA and dumped lots of rain and spawned 6 tornadoes. Hurricane Bertha could hit the carolinas within the next 5-6 days so Bertha could make landfall around the same place as her older sister did in '96'.
We haven't been getting much rain although we had a very wet April and early May. We hit record highs a few weeks ago with 3 consecutive days in the 100's. Not to mention summer hasn't even started at that time! Then we saw an impressive cool down 10-20 degrees lower than these 100's which is around where we should be at this time of year. Now we're warming up and todays high is supposed to get very close to 100.
Update on local weather
We've seen very little rain lately maybe a thunderstorm here and there this week but not much. We should get to around 90 today but thursday and the 4th of july should be in the mid 90's. Independence day looks good with a stray thunderstorm in late afternoon. The fireworks forcast looks good. Nice and comfortable with it being in the lower 80's at 9pm. Sat-Tues brings highs in the upper 80's with some afternoon thunderstorms possible.
Update on local weather
Heavy thunderstorms spoiled most of the 4th of july events in richmond metro area but got going on july 5th. Last night we received quite a bit of rain and thunderstorms so we should see more of that the next few days.
Wishing everyone a happy 4th of July
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