Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

Happy New Year!!

By: tropicfreak, 11:54 PM GMT on December 25, 2009

I hope your Christmas was filled with joy and happiness. The mood wasn't matched with mother nature though, as it is currently dumping a good dose of rain across much of Commonwealth VA. There will be at least 1" of rain for us which should melt most of the snow that is on the ground. The existing problem though will be for the folks who live along the James River. The melting snow falls into the river and when the snow melts, it could cause some flooding problems and with the rain falling it is definitely not making things any better. Keep in mind of that.

The rain will continue throughout the night tonight and will taper off with lows in the lower 40's. Tomorrow and for the rest of the week, there will be partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 30's to mid 40's and with lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's. However, New Years weekend there will be a storm that could potentially bring us some winter weather. It is a week away though and things could change a lot from now till friday or saturday so I'll keep you posted.


Have a Merry Christmas

TF


New Years Storm

For now it looks like we will see mainly rain out of this one with mixed precip out to the north and west of here. Even in those areas the precip will be short lived as it changes over to rain w/ highs around 40. If you are going to any New Years festivities you better bring your umbrella.
Lows New Years Eve night will be rather cold with lows just above freezing. Another system right behind will be coming from the west and IF there is enough cold air in this one we MAY see a mix to start out and then change over to some snow. Highs will start out in the mid to upper 30's dropping to lower 30s. Little or no accumulation is expected.

Today highs will be around 40 with mostly sunny skies then tonight we will have lows around 20. If you are going out tonight or tomorrow morning you will definitely have to bundle up. Tomorrow will be the same with partly sunny skies. Tomorrow night we will have lows around 32. After the storm it will get sharply colder with highs only making it to the mid 30s with lows in the lower 20s or even upper teens as we finish off the week.

I'll have more updates.

TF


Update

We did see a little sleet last night but it changed over to rain. It turns out that areas in the mountains including C'ville didn't get any rain. As a matter of fact, cities along I-81 got accumulating snow.Here are the snow/ice totals.

Ice:
Charlottesville 0.20"
Reston 0.10"
near Dulles International 0.10"
Warrenton 0.10"
Standardsville 0.05"
Herndon 0.03"
Massaponax 0.02"
Rixeyville 0.01"

Snowfall:
Covington 3.2"
Craigsville 2.6"
Blacksburg 2.3"
Winchester 2.1"
Staunton 1.3"
Galax 1.0"
Luray 1.0"
Linden 1.0"
Sperryville 0.2"

As we head into tonight, the winter wx advisories out to our west have expired and are no longer in effect. We may see some light rain head into the area tonight with lows around 33-35°. Winter precip is possible out to our west but I'm thinking we may see a little bit of it. Temps are just above freezing but any slight change in temps could mean winter wx. Don't expect much though. After that the big weather story we've been waiting for, dry, but cold, fridgid air rather with high temps only making it up into the mid 30s with lows in the upper teens. That is when school starts up and the cold weather will certainly not make your kids pop out of bed let alone the first week of school from break. The cold & dry pattern will stay with us for all of next week however, models are indicating by next weekend or so we may get YET ANOTHER COASTAL STORM and this one may look big this time. It should be fun watching the computers for this storm. Anything can change and will change over the course of a week so keep your eyes peeled and I'll bring you updates.

Have a safe and happy New Year and ring in 2010!

TF

SNOWSTORM FOR RICHMOND VA????

By: tropicfreak, 9:34 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

First off I'm very sorry I've been absent from blogging, my schedule has been crazy along with studying for exams homework , etc. For the next 2 weeks I should be blogging more often.

This is kind of unusual considering the time of year we're getting this snowstorm. Usually we get those sometime in late january through as late as early March. But this one we're getting in mid December just before the official start of winter.(next monday) Just 2 days ago they were just calling for snow showers with little to no accumulation. Because now the models are now in agreement on where this weather system will go we will likely get a plentiful amount of snow. It will take more of a northerly track. Before I get to the process of the storm, here is the forecast for tonight and then I'll get into it. Tonight will bring clouds gradually building with a cold low of 25. Tomorrow we will start off with partly cloudy skies then throughout the day clouds will build and possibly around 3-5pm the winter weather should start. This is the tricky part. It may start out as a mix of rain and wet snow(possibly an ice pellet or two)then we will transition to a snow/sleet mix. Friday night we will have low temps in the lower 30's. By Sat morning we should see a changeover to all snow. Areas to the west will get more snow because they will just see snow. Areas to the east will have a longer sleet mix then changeover to all snow by afternoon as the cold air builds in from the north. The total amount? Probably for us a good 4-8" of snow. Areas to the west will get larger amounts like around a foot of snow. Areas to the east will see at least 2-4 inches.

There are some factors in this storm that could change the forecast some.

1) A slower sleet to snow transition will mean less snow.

2) Even though all models are agreeing with the track of this system, the track still remains critical. A much closer track means more snow. Easterly track means less snow.

I'll have updates as they come along

Tropicfreak


UPDATE

We now have a winter storm watch for the whole metro area and points west. We also have winter storm warnings from Buckingham County to parts of SW VA.


Friday Update

We now have a winter storm warning for all of metro Richmond and points west of here. Significant amounts of snow are expected across much of Commonwealth VA. Winter storm watches are in effect for areas east of Richmond in the Tidewater area including Williamsburg. Metro Richmond could see anywhere from 8-12" while areas west of here will see the most snow with a whopping 12-16". Areas east of here will see 2-4 or 5" in some spots. You see the radar and it shows snow over us but then you look outside and think, "Wheres the snow?" The air needs to get saturated first before it can snow. For now the majority of the precip is evaporating and isn't making it to the ground. But around 4 or 5pm you will see the snowflakes fall. Through the evening and overnight it may mix in with rain or sleet at times but by early tomorrow morning it should changeover to all snow. The majority of the rain/sleet/snow mix should stay to the SE but a mix of snow and sleet is still possible across the area. The high temps for tomorrow will be around 32° There will be periods of heavy snow throughout the day and also expect some windy conditions. Which could mean some blizzard or close-to-a-blizzard conditions. Snow will taper off late Sat evening leaving behind some flurries or snow showers. I'll bring you updates as they come along.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

About tropicfreak

Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.