Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

Alex forcasted to make Landfall in Mexico

By: tropicfreak, 9:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2010

Hurricane Alex right now is moving to the west at 13 mph. It's winds are at 90 mph, which is a strong Cat 1 strength. It could possibly make it to Cat 2 status before it makes landfall. It has spawned numerous tornadoes over southern Texas, and many tornado warnings are being issued. It has just been indicated that Alex now has a full closed eye. There have been many reports of flash flooding across Mexico and Texas as well.




Landfall will occur in the next 3 hours or so, most likely around Mexico.

Other than Alex there is nothing that will pose a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone as for now, however, there is a possibility a low could form off a cluster of thunderstorms,
somewhere in the eastern GOM , but that is not until this weekend. Until then, there is no other development in the Atlantic and the Pacific as well.

You may have noticed quite a difference walking out the door this morning. It actually felt quite cooler from past mornings. Today we hit the lower 80s and tonight lows will be in the lower 70s. We will experience a gradual warmup, with highs in the mid to upper 80s the closer we get to the end of the week. By then we will be back into the 90s for your 4th of July weekend, with lows in the mid 70s. We don't have a good chance to see any rain, however, a pop-up shower or storm could occur, but not everybody will see one.

Have a great week! We hope and pray MX and TX are safe.

TF


First Named storm of the Season Forms, Affects on TX and Mexico; Relief from the Heat is on the way

By: tropicfreak, 3:47 PM GMT on June 22, 2010

I was outside this morning at around 10 and it was already scorching hot and the temps will continue to climb. Unfortunately there won't be any signs of relief in the next 7 days. Not to mention chances for any rain won't look that great. For the rest of the week, low to mid 90s, and lows anywhere in the 70s. There is a 20-30% chance of a pop-up shower or storm but don't count too much on it.

93L

Yesterday 93L was looking great until last night when it became disorganized. It still looks the same as of now but showing some signs of reorganization. As of the 8am TWO, the NHC puts this invest a 40% chance of developing. I'm expecting this to go up a little, as wind shear is very low, dry air is not present, and the SSTs are like a hot tub well into the upper 80s. Models aren't latching on very well to this one, which is one reason the NHC lowered from 50-40%. Most models that are tracking this are taking it into the GOM as a TS. Water temps are hot there as well, one report came in that the temp was 91°! Land fall has yet to be determined, but it can be anywhere on the Gulf Coast. Models typically don't do very well with tracking invests until they have actually develop. Until then, it is a wait and see situation. I'm expecting development by at least thurs or wed at the earliest if it really starts to improve significantly, which is not likely. I'll keep a close eye on 93L. Meanwhile in the Pacific, Hurricane Celia is still chugging along as a Cat 2 hurricane. Its winds are at 105 mph and poses no threat of land, but it could reach major hurricane strength before it weakens.

Celia



93L



Stay safe in the Heat!!!!

TF




UPDATE

Our first named storm of the season has formed, TS Alex. It was declared a TD yesterday afternoon, but became alex by 5am this morning. Right now RECON (or hurricane hunters) are investigating it to see if it has strengthened any and based on satellite imagery, it shows signs of strengthening. notice the impressive amount of convection.



The projected path takes it crossing the yucatan, but where exactly it will go after that has yet to be determined. It could take a more westerly path and make landfall in Mexico or it could take a more northerly track and take it into Texas as a weak cat 1 hurricane. IF it takes more of a northerly turn, watch out, this thing could really explode and be bad news for the oil spill. It hasn't made landfall in the Yucatan, so it is a wait and see scenario.

94L

Another disturbance worth mentioning is invest 94L. It is interacting with an upper level trough which is bringing 40-50 knots of shear, which isn't favorable. By monday though it is forcasted to be in a more conducive environment for development. The east coast and mid-atlantic states bear watching as well as Bermuda depending on where the Bermuda high will sit. The NHC has 94L under a 10% chance of developing within the next 48 hours. We'll just have to wait and see.

Africa

An impressive wave that is still over land in africa is forecasted to move into the E atlantic by tomorrow, we'll see how it looks by that time.

Forecast Richmond

This weekend will be rather hot so take precautions. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 90s. The best chance for rain will be Monday as that cold front moves through. It will bring showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe. After that, we will have temps in the mid 80s but after that, the track of 94L will play a big factor on our forecast.

Have a great weekend!! TF

I'm BACK

By: tropicfreak, 7:42 PM GMT on June 19, 2010

Well, I've been hibernating a bit, sorry about that. I have been pretty busy lately, but now that schools done for the summer I will be more availible. I will do the best I can to bring as much updates as I can.

Because hurricane season just started, I may be a little rusty on my hurricane vocab so bear with me.

We have an invest out in the central atlantic, impacting the lessler antillies, causing flooding and mudslides to these islands. It has a some nice banding structure and it had bursts of convection have been occurring but it has died down and now it looks broad based on the satellite and infared images.




The land it has been moving over has made it weaken a bit, and the NHC has 92L a 10% chance of developing. It is not in a very favorable environment, due to the upper level winds. However in the near future, it is expected to strengthen and models are bringing this into the GOM which spells trouble, not only is the water going to be very warm, as it always is, but also if it makes impact on the Gulf coast, it could wash more of the oil ashore which is not good news at all. But again, this scenario is too far away to determine what will happen so it is a wait and see situation. If it does develop though into a TS it will be named Alex.

The heat and humidity has been unbearable lately, and it doesn't show signs of letting up. Tomorrow the temperatures will be near 100 with the heat index at around 110 so take caution. It will be in the upper 90s for much of the week with a small chance of showers or t'storms in a few days or so.

It feels so great to be back on this site.

Have a great weekend and stay safe in the heat!

TF


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

About tropicfreak

Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.