Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

First Flakes????

By: tropicfreak, 3:31 AM GMT on December 02, 2010

Yes the chance of snow in the forecast has enabled me to get back to my more frequent blogging for winter. More on that later.

When the squall line moved through at 5am this morning, it brought along heavy rain and some wind, but tree damage was isolated and there was no one hurt which was good news. We also benefited it from a decent rainfall. We picked up 1.36 inches at the airport, so it we did get quite a bit.

This morning temps were in the mid 60s. Believe it or not, that was our high for today, but as stiff winds began blowing from the NW, the temperature dropped rapidly into the 40s for the afternoon, making it a chilly and blustery day. Temps tonight will drop even further into the lower 30s, around or below freezing for tonight. Tomorrow we will stay clear with maybe a passing cloud, though it will stay rather cold with highs in the upper 50s. The weather will be like this with highs in the lower 50s to lows in the lower 30s even upper 20s for our area for the rest of the week, bringing our first cold snap of the season. That seems pretty appropriate as we start out December.


Now here is the interesting part. This snowfall will come out of a clipper system diving out of Canada, bringing us a small dose of snow. I am expecting this system to arrive sometime after sunset Saturday night, any precipitation that doesn't fall as snow at the beginning will quickly change to snow. The snow will end sometime Sunday morning, probably around 10am. It is 4 days out so the track still may change, and as a matter of fact, the latest NAM 00z model run puts the system to the south, putting us on the snowy side, but any further shift south will cut central VA out of the picture. Let's hope that doesn't happen. As for snowfall accumulations, too early to speculate exactly how much we will get in terms of snowfall accumulation, but just an idea of how much we may get, 1-2". Both the NAM and GFS has been pretty much in agreement with that. It will be cold for the next couple of days with lows below freezing, so that will allow ground temps to drop some, allowing accumulation to occur earlier in the storm. The track, intensity, and especially the dry air will depend on how much snow we will get. I'll have more updates tomorrow and in the upcoming days.

Models are hinting at another winter storm in a little more than a week, perhaps bigger than the one this upcoming weekend, but model guidance is a little sketchy this far out, so we will see what happens.

Have a great rest of the week!!


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

About tropicfreak

Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.