Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.
By: tropicfreak, 4:58 PM GMT on December 28, 2011
Good morning folks! We've got a busy week ahead of us so bear with me.
I will get to the snow possibility later on in this blog, but for now, a dry cold front has moved through the area ushering in cooler and drier air, as well as windy conditions. Winds could gust up to 25-30 mph today making it feel like the mid 40s. High temperatures will struggle to hit the 50 degree mark. The wind will taper off later this evening. Tonight and early tomorrow though, it will quickly plummet into the mid-upper 20s. Our western communities like Charlottesville, and points west may bottom out in the teens. Highs tomorrow will be more of the same, again struggling to reach the 50° mark. Clouds will begin to build Friday morning, (with lows around the freezing mark)out ahead of a weak weather system that could bring a few showers to the area late Friday into early Saturday. Highs Friday should reach 60°. The majority of this though should stay to our north, and it will be all rain as lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. New Years weekend looks pretty good, with both Saturday and Sunday topping out around the 60° mark. Monday a strong cold front will move through the area, and accompanying this will be some heavy rain. Behind the cold front will consist of very cold air, possibly plunging as far south as Georgia. Tuesday we may or may not get above freezing.
I will get to the possibility of winter weather later on today.
Have a great day!
Alright let's get to it. There is the possibility of a winter storm riding up the coastline, maybe bringing us a decent snow. Models so far have been all over the place with this one. Unlike yesterday's Euro, which had 12"+ of snow for us, the 0z run gave it a no go to the storm, with it going out to sea. Although that is the case, there has been some consistency with showing a deep and steep trough, which is needed for storms to ride up the coast. Following the dip, will be some deep, and I mean DEEP cold air, plunging as far south as Florida! Temperatures next week will struggle to get above freezing with low temperatures in the teens! With the NAO forecast to go negative at that time frame, I believe this is the pattern change we have been waiting so long for. GFS is also picking up on this, but it also says, no storm. CMC and GGEM do show some winter weather for us next week though. Models will continue to flip flop until they come to some sort of consensus. So even if the models aren't showing a coastal storm now, that may not be the case in 2-4 days from now. Lots can and will change between now and next Tuesday. Whether it snows or not, expect temperatures to drop like a rock next week, as it will be very frigid. I will say this though, I'm fairly confident that IF we do see a winter storm, I don't think we will have to worry about any rain or mixed precipitation, as there will likely be plenty of cold air in place. No scenario is ruled out at this point, but we will know better by New Years Weekend.
By: tropicfreak, 2:09 AM GMT on December 20, 2011
Before I move on, I do want to note that 2 years ago today, we were in the midst of a historic and nerve-wracking storm. I picked up 10", and I remember watching the radar, seeing it rain just a mile east of my house, and I was getting sleet. Crazy storm that had totals that varied a lot in the metro, such as Chester receiving 5" and Petersburg receiving 2". Quite the unforgettable storm.
If you still haven't finished your Christmas shopping, you will likely encounter some rain while you are out this week. Throughout the week, we will receive 3 rounds of rain. Tonight and most of tomorrow should remain dry, but tomorrow evening, expect the first batch of rain to arrive. This should last well into Wednesday, and on Wednesday afternoon out ahead of a cold front we could see some heavy showers, and maybe even a few t'storms given the warm and moist air, as temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 60s. There could be a few showers behind the front but for the most part the rain should be out of the area by late Wednesday night as the front stalls out along the Carolinas coast. Most, if not all of Thursday should remain relatively dry, but there is a slight chance of a few showers late that day. The bulk of that rain isn't expected to arrive until early Friday morning. This round of rain should last well into Friday, and it will taper off late that day. Friday night is looking dry as well as Saturday, but round 3 is expected to arrive in the afternoon. This should last well into the evening and overnight periods, but as cold air filters in, we might, and MIGHT see a few flakes mixing in on Christmas morning, but don't hold your breath, as temperatures will be hovering just above freezing which is doable for snow, but this could very well change as it is nearly a week out. Monday-Tuesday model guidance is hinting at the possibility of some wintry weather for us, but it is a week out so it will likely change. As a matter of fact, after looking at the soundings, it appears to be mainly rain ending as snow. But we all know that things can, and they will most definitely change between now and next Monday, so it is worth watching. In a way it is good that we aren't in the snow zone, because models will continue to play with the idea of a storm riding up the coast and eventually may shift into our favor. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
Most of this week will feature temps in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s until late week as temperatures are expected to drop back into the 40s and lows in the 30s. As for a flip flop in the pattern (into our favor) look towards the beginning of January. Don't be disappointed if we don't get a decent snow this month, as history has showed that in the past, January and February have been our active months.
I should be blogging more often now that winter has arrived.
Have a great week and merry Christmas!
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.