winter outlook

By: tropicfreak , 1:21 AM GMT on October 21, 2008

It has been quite a while since I have posted a blog so bear with me here! A cool spell has came over us with temps in the 60's with lows in the lower 40's to the upper 30's and even in the mid 30's. So cool weather has come around very early and should stay with us for the remainder of the week and quite possibly long range. For the past 3 or 4 winters we've had what we call a "snow drought" which averages about 1.5 inches of winter weather per winter since 2007. Will this be a turn around winter with lots of snow? Jim Duncan local meteoroligist from 12 news explains:

First, let me confess that I have a particular affinity for cold temperatures and snow. Spending all of the first half of my life in the snowbelts of the Northeast, I grew up with a fascination of winter storms. Decades later, it’s still with me.

With that disclaimer in hand, I can’t shake the feeling that this winter could be a lot different from recent ones. “Snow drought” pretty much sums up the past several years for Virginia. Could this year bring a reversal? While many climatological indicators don’t support this thesis, it’s hard to deny that the fall pattern so far has been quite cool over the East, with notable early-season dips southward in the jet stream.

There are some hints in the computer guidance for a significant cold spell (much colder than our current cool-snap) towards the end of this month. With such pattern gyrations occurring in greater frequency this year versus prior years, it’s not a stretch to speculate that, longer-range, wintry weather could make a surprise visit well before the official arrival of the season.

Posted by Jim Duncan

I was actually surprised he liked snow because he can get a little down on snow and take the joy out of the kids. But I guess he changed his mind! This past weekend, we got a fall-like storm with some rain, mostly on friday but believe it or not, before that storm, we had trace in the month of october which means no rain. As far as are first snow goes, I think it will happen in late November if not december. We should get a few winter storms with our "Big One" in January. So we should get quite a lot. I know i've said this may times but again, I'm not getting my hopes up on something far out. Usually the earlier we get our first cold spell, the earlier winter will come and the more snow we will get.

Have a great weekend


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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4. tropicfreak
8:57 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Here are one of the comments posted on Jim Duncan's blog.

I too am inclined to believe that the long-range outlooks for our winter could be just a bit off. Mother nature has a way of balancing herself out sooner or later and it has definitely been a long while since a “good winter”(according to how you feel about it.) Maybe it is just old wives tales or whatever but I do believe that some things hold a little weight. I have never seen so much fruit or such large fruit on the trees this year and yes, the abundance of acorns is unreal. I have had fruit trees for years and this year we didn’t exactly have a great year for rain although we are up a little there… it was spotty. So far we have gotten 8 wheelbarrow( yes, wheelbarrows versus buckets) loads of pears off of one tree and they are huge! The apples were the same! I don’t think that I have seen that in many many years. As noted, it has been a longtime since we have had these kind of cool downs this frequent as early and as far south as we have this year. We all know that any long-range outlook can be and alot of the time are adjusted mid season. Although they are good at predicting the weather.. the weather can be a fickle thing and change at the drop of a hat. Anyway, I am hoping for snow this year as it has been a longtime. Summer lovers rarely get disappointed so please mother nature, just a couple of good snows and I will be smiling :).

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. pumps
9:37 PM GMT on October 24, 2008
tf, you are reading too many olde
wife's tales....If you want to get
into "hard winters" then research
the "woolly bear"...Pumps
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. tropicfreak
1:26 AM GMT on October 23, 2008
I will keep that in mind pumps. Thanks! I can already tell it is going to be a great winter. The more aboundance of acorns there are the more snowy winter we'll get. And in my yard there are acorns all over the place!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. pumps
7:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Glad to see that you are still alive..
So you bought a LaCrosse unit...It is
great for temp and humidity...Do not
expect too much from the wind readings
and remember to place you exterior
sensing units properly as not to get
false readings....Have fun....Pumps
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

About tropicfreak

Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.