Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.
By: tropicfreak , 7:58 PM GMT on August 10, 2011
Well, it certainly has been a while since I have been blogging, lots going on in my family, and I just haven't thought about blogging, oh well, I'm alive and well!
The tropics are really beginning to pick up. We now have 4 areas to watch. Let's break them down.
The first one is Emily's remnants, it would likely not regenerate due to the cooler waters it has ahead of her, but there's always a chance it could pull a Cindy from earlier this year. The good news is regardless of development it should be no threat to any land areas. The NHC is putting this at a 10% chance of regenerating.
Here is Emily's remnants, located roughly at 48W 38N.
An elongated area of low pressure is currently sitting off Florida's east coast. It is currently disorganized, but some slow development is possible as it moves N to NE. It shouldn't pose a threat to any land areas either, other than bringing some showery weather to FL which is what it's currently doing. The NHC is also putting this at a 10% chance of development.
Another area just SW of the Cape Verde Islands, 92L is showing some signs of organization. Several models, most notably the GFS develop this wave. It's anyone's guess as to where it will go, whether it will go out to sea or impacting the east coast. It's just too early to tell, so we'll watch it in the coming days. The NHC is putting this at a 20% chance of development, but I suspect that they will raise the chances at the 8 pm tropical weather outlook.
Another recently tagged invest, 93L has just emerged off the African coastline, east of 92L, and is looking well organized. Several models also develop this wave. We will have to see how long it's convection can persist. It could also either go out to sea or impact the US, and again, it's just too early to tell where it will go, and model guidance is sketchy this far out, so we will watch this as well. The NHC hasn't mentioned this in the 2pm TWO, but they will most definitely mention 93L in the 8 pm tropical weather outlook.
Here is 93L along side 92L to its west.
Switching gears now to local weather. Relief is in sight from the heat thank goodness. Today will be the last hot day before another cold front moves through. Highs today will be in the mid 90s. Highs the next few days through next week will be in the mid to upper 80s, through next Tuesday. The lowest temperature will be on Sunday right around 85, which would be the coolest it has been in quite a while. Lows in the next 7 days will be in the mid to upper 60s. We will have a shot at some rain Saturday into Sunday, as a strong trough (for summer standards)moves through. I'm currently putting this at a 70% chance of rain, which is good this far out.
Overall, the tropics are beginning to become active with 4 areas of interest, a cooldown is on the way, and we have a great shot at seeing some rain Saturday night into Sunday.
Have a great rest of the week!
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