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My 2011 hurricane forecast/thinking
By: washingtonian115 , 5:03 AM GMT on April 04, 2011
Okay guys.So over the cold,and long wintery months we've been looking twords the tropics to see what's brewing and what's on the plate.(I don't know how to post images sorry).But I've been doing some reseaching myself.And came up with these theories.(Note their speculation).
1.Okay let's talk about the enso first.Of course that's one of the biggest factors when it comes to forecasting a hurricane season this far out in time.
The way I see it is the la nina is weakning,and will be eventually turning netrual as the season goes on.Most models agree with this ,and only a few of them are taking us into El nino.And as I stated before.When this La nina breaks down I don't think we'll see the quick transition like we saw in 2010.From El nino to La nina.
2.The shear.Now I'm not going to go much into this knowing that shear can be hard to predict even when it's 36 hours out.But so far shear has been below average across the atlantic basin.It'll be interesting if this continues into the hurricane season(which seems more likley).
3.The SST.One other factor is the SST.So far across the basin sst have been running above average.The carribean has significantly warmed.The GOM (gulf of mexico) is also running well above average.It's in the lead being the warmest so early so far.I think SST will continue to be on the increase.I don't think it'll reach 2010/2005 levels.But we'll see.The only thing SST are lacking are depth.This will eventually grow as we get closer to the hurricane season.
4.Analogs.My main anologs are 2008,1996,1961,and 1956,and 1999.All these years featured significant hurricane threats along both the carolina coast,and Northen gulf coast.You'll also notice how we had a fair amount of "fish" storms in these years as well.
My final thoughts go like this.I think we'll see a fairly active hurricane season with 15-17 named storms.With 5-7 hurricanes,and 4-5 major hurricanes.I also think we'll see many more hurricane/tropical storm threats this year compared to these last few years(2009,and 2010).Netrual years have proven to be bad for the U.S.We haven't had a major hurricane threat in 6 years.Unfortunatly I think our time has sadly come to an end.The U.S can't continue to dodge bullets like in a dodge ball game.Florida is well over due to. They haven't seen a real threat since Wilma,and Fay to some extent.If we go another year without a major hurricane I'll be surprised quite a bit.The U.S has been counting it's lucky stars.And 2010 was truley a blessing.When a major threat doesn't make it's presence for a long time,people seem to become complacent.Not good at all.Remeber though.BE PREPARED.You never no want might happen.
If,and when the first storm of the season makes landfall you wanna keep check on where it makes landfall.Becuase serval other storms later down the road could follow in that direction.
In 2004 hurricane Alex swiped the outer banks/the carolina coast.And later in the season you had Charley,and Gaston follow along.The remnats of Ivan also affected the area.The second hot spot was florida.Bonnie was the first storm to make landfall in florida.And what happened?.Charley,Jeane,Frances,and Ivan came along.
2005.Alreane made landfall on the northen gulf coast.What happened?.You had Cindy,Dennis,Katrina,and Rita hit the gulf coast.
2010.Alex made landfall on the Yucatan Penesula.What hppened?.Richard,Karl,Puala,and Matthew affected the area.Most of these storms then travled to southern Texas/Mexico border.Also Hermaine affected the Texas/Mexico border,but didn't cross the Yucatan.That's it for now.Peace.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.