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By: weatherh98, 4:40 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
This blog describes Invest 95L and an unnumbered AOI in the central Caribbean. Thanks to Levi because i am getting some images off of his site!
Currently, invest 95L is about to enter into the Gulf stream. It is responding to this by intensification of thunderstorms near the center which has now wrapped completely around the center. The cloud tops are getting colder and have sustained themselves for about four hours now.As seen here.
It even has an eye like feature although I have seen that already with a subtropical entity which I believe was 92L. It looks better with every satellite frame. I do not expect classification from the NHC quite yet but is very possible by 5 PM we will get a renumber so long as the uptick in convection sustains itself.
The models are in pretty fair agreement about the track of this storm. It should slide east, do a loop-de-loop before moving north east again. Should it move over the gulf stream for quite a while, we may see a transition to tropical although I doubt this will happen. Should not be a threat to land.
Currently, there is an AOI in the central Caribbean. It is very a elongated and there is a trough that is connected to it going all the way north to just east of invest 95L. It is also very disorganized. It is under about 25knots of windshear meaning that it is not in a very conducive atmosphere for development. This should change as it enters the central GOM. Shear will lessen as an anticyclone develops and water temps are near 85 over the gulf stream. Because it is so broad, it will take time for consollidation and strengthening. This shouldn't allow it to get too strong. This should move north around the Bermuda high into the loop current before shifting directions to the west-northwest. Due to a ridge building in the southeast US. The winds and temps part of the AWC really doesn't close off the low as it moves north. This is the forecast for Friday 0600 UTC by the AWC.
Again this shouldn't be very intense but it will be a rainmaker for somewhere on the gulf coast as this develops.
Thanks for reading I appreciate it!
By: weatherh98, 11:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
I absolutely swore I would NOT EVER write a blog on an epac storm... Im breaking it. I have too. Oh and pardon any gramatical errors I'm watching Duck Dynasty.
Starting around 7 AM this Tropical storm Carlotta underwent our first western hemisphere case of Rapid Intensification. And boy, when it started it went fast. It wrapped convection all the way around and formed the eyewall. It continued to sift out any dry air and form the eyewall better throughout the day going from a 70 MPH tropical storm to its current 105 MPH cat 2 hurricane. Its movement has stayed a pretty consistent northwest track.
Satellite picture of this RI
ADT numbers have estamites high above what the recon found all day. here are the most current ones and they support a cat 3 hurricane.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.4mb/107.2kt
(This is higher in knots than the official one in mph)
From now she will more than likely push her way inland quickly as its motion is much faster than predicted. and because of this, it won't feel the trough in central mexico as much and go more north than current NHC track. After its more northerly track it should begin to recurve in about 12-18 hours as it feels the trough build in. you see this trough on the ADDS-prog charts.
After it recurves i could see some reintensification IF it is not completely torn apart by the mountainous terrain in mexico.
Some of the energy may enter the BOC and interact with a Twave and make an AOI.
INTENSE RAIN+SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR=FLOODING
Do I really need to say more? Didn't think so.
Carlotta is a very intense and dangerous storm and thos in the path of her should already be preprared. same old same old.
REST OF THE WORLD
In the west pacific we have Typhoon Guchol, a category 3 typhoon with winds of 115 mph. This is predicted to become a category 4 by the NHC. This is expected to hit land somewhere near Tokyo Yokahama and God know that this area doesnt need any more disasters after the earthquake and tsunami.
I havent looked at this storm a ton so I wont say anything either way.
In the northeast GOM there is an AOI with a near 0% chance of development and it probably will not develop. It should begin to move back west towards texas as a ridge builds in to its north. Of course we must always watch any blob or MCV that enters the Gulf during hurricane season.
As most of you know some of models are putting a storm in the gulf a few days out. I may write a blog on it as it moves into place.
This took a while because i had to do stuff including walking my dog where i saw a 4 foot gator in a canal about a block from my house.
Thank you for reading I appreciate any feedback that yall will give.
Prediction Hurricane season 2012
By: weatherh98, 6:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
My prediction for the year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 of those to be major.
EFFECTS OF EL NINO
Graph of the el nino models.
And the average of the dynamic models are as follows.
Average, dynamical models MJJ0.2 JJA0.4 JAS0.6 ASO0.7 SON0.8 OND0.8 NDJ0.8 DJF0.7
Because any variation of .5 degrees celcius is a nuetral stage, A weak el nino does not even form until August. When you account for the atmospheric "lag", the effect more than likely won't begin until October. This is why I only expect 14 storms because el nino will more than likely effect any late-season storms that try to get going. Yes, I said only 14! The rest of the conditions are favorable except the transition of the ENSO. So we would've had more storms.
EARLY SEASON FORMATION
Wow! Already two storms down. Alberto and Beryl have formed and gone. This though has no real bearings on what happens from today through November. What it does suggest though is that as we thought, we will have a fast start and 2012 has tied a record and the season started today!
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
We are currently in a negative NAO phase moving slowly toward a positive one. Negative NAO is a weeker icelandic low and subtropical high. a positive is a stronger icelandic low and a stronger subtropical high. A positive is more conducive to landfalls.
Im calling for a slightly above average year.
Have a very happy Hurricane season.
Thanks for reading. My brain hurts.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.