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Emilia doesn't dissapoint/Daniel dieing/98E poised for development/disturbed area
By: weatherh98, 10:06 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Made using 5 PM EDT advisories
Emilia now a category 3 after category 4 peak.
Daniel looks like Jose.
98E poised to develop.
Area of disturbed weather moves over florida.
EMILIA NOW A CATEGORY 3 AFTER CATEGORY 4 PEAK
Hurricane Emilia surely didn't dissapoint me. It intensified as expected to a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (slightly under my thought of a 145 mph peak). It weakened slightly before going through an Eye wall replacement cycle (EWRC). As it entered into the EWRC it continued to weaken before compleating the EWRC. It bottomed out as a category 2 hurricane before restrengthening to its current strength of 115 mph. Emilia appears to have gone annular after the last EWRC. Its eye is much larger than the previous eye.
FIGURE 1 shows size of the eye as compared to the main storm.
I expect a continued strengthining through the next advisory before taporing off in intensity. Emilia should move generally toward Hawaii. Possibly directly stiking them as a remnant low. Only increasing rain showers though.
DANIEL LOOKS LIKE JOSE
Well what more can I say.
98E POISED TO DEVELOP
Invest 98E wants to be named and so the NHC is giving this an 80% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. I would give it a slightly lower chance in the next 48 hours of development. 70 %.
My forecast for 98E is to move more northerly than Daniel and Emilia and to recurve into Baja california.
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER FLORIDA
An area of interest (AOI) has moved near florida this evening and currently has very weak circulation and it is not stacked. Most convection is off to the east. As it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico we may see further organization, however I am not expecting development into a named storm.
Thank you for reading this blog!
I will not be able to post again untill monday or tuesday.
Daniel weakening now/Emilia forms to surpass the Atlantic.
By: weatherh98, 3:59 PM GMT on July 08, 2012
Wunderblog for 7-8-2012
1)Daniel weakens, unlikely threat to hawaii.
2)Emilia develops,Eastern pacific surpasses atlantic.
FIGURE 1 shows the dry air effecting Daniel, Emilia developing.
This morning, Daniel has begun weakening over the cooler pacific water as it steams westward. Daniel defied all forecasts by becoming a major Hurricane yesterday evening. It has since weakened slightly to a powerful category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH. The convection associated with Daniel is collapsing due to dry air and insufficient water temperatures. Figures Two and three below will show this especially. I do not expect restrengthening as it moves towards the central pacific and probably south of Hawaii. Hawaii is looking to be less and less likely of a candidate for landfall.
FIGURE TWO please note the HOT gulf waters.
FIGURE 3 shows the current "stats" on Daniel and the weakening convection.
EMILIA FORMS. EAST PACIFIC SURPASSES THE ATLANTIC
Emilia has formed now into a tropical storm. She is not very organized and has winds of 50 MPH. Her minimum central pressure is 1000 MB. Her movement is WNW at 14 MPH. As far as intensity goes, I would expect a category 3 Hurricane by the end of the work week. At the moment, Emilia seems to be the greater threat to Hawaii as she will probably be stronger and more northerly than Daniel was.
FIGURE 3 satellite image of Emilia.
ALL IS QUIET IN THE ATLANTIC
There is no tropical development in the next 48 hours, the northern gulf should expect increased moisture in the coming days to inhance the current deluge.
Daniel Strengthens/97e developing/Tropical wave moving through carribean
By: weatherh98, 5:08 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Wunderblog for 7-6-2012
Todays blog will cover multiple tropical systems.
1) Tropical Storm Daniel
2) 97E is well on its way to being named.
3) AOI in the Carribean has weakened.
According to the latest update, Tropical Daniel has intensified to a 70 MPH tropical storm with a minimum central pressure of 993 Millibars. The location is 14.8°N 114.9°W and Daniel is moving WNW at 12 mph. Daniel is moving towards very dry air and much cooler ocean temperatures. She probably does not have much longer to intesify into a hurricane. If she does become a hurricane it will more than likely be short lived. The only land that will be effected will be some pacific islands, Hawaii only has the potential for rain... If it can survive that far. My intensity forecast for Daniel is as follows.
12 hr: 75
24 hr: 75
36 hr: 65
48 hr: 55
60 hr: 40
72 hr: post-tropical
FIGURE ONE Water vapor image of Daniel, Fish?
FIGURE TWO Shows My forecast. It really is going to have a lot of time in the cold water before it gets anywhere close to hawaii and shouldnt be a problem.
97E is developing
In the Eastern Pacific we have another tropical system making a run at becoming a named storm. Invest 97E is moving in a westerly direction, and currently has a medium chance, 30% of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. This is probably very smart for them to do even though it is looking very nice. The 06 z GFS as seen in Figure 3 doesnt even develop 97E for another 56 hours so by now about 50 hours out. 97E is in favorable conditions therefore, this should develop through out the next few days.
FIGURE THREE shows the 06z at 56 hours out. I had to color the isobars to show that you can see that there are two isobars completely closed, the low would be around 1005 Millibars
Carribean AOI is weakening
The Tropical Wave That was moving through the carribean is now weakening. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) has increased westerly shear creating little to no opportunity for convection to develop. Furthermore, the vorticity at 850 Millibars has almost completely vanished. However, as I said yesterday, this could be a potential rain marker for Florida (especially south Florida). (I dont think I made this very clear last discussion)I am not expecting this to develop though it may have a tiny window down the road.
Thank you for reading.
Any feedback is appreciated.
ATL tropical wave/Daniel forms this morning in the EPAC
By: weatherh98, 4:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2012
If you were to lazy to read the title, this blog is on the ATL tropical wave and newly formed tropical storm Daniel.
oh yes and I'm only doing my own graphics. hope you like it.
Normally I would address any named storm first however the more "threatening" system is currently in the carribean south of hispanola. Its moving west at a rapid clip and is under quite a bit of shear do to a TUTT to its south over North, South America and the south Carribean. For the reasons above the NHC took off its yellow circle and said there is no chance of development in the next 48 hours. I heavily agree with that. After the 48 hour mark shear should lessen up as it nears the GOM where there is less shear.
FIGURE 1 shows the shear in that area.
Red indicats high shear>30 knots
yellow indicates moderate shear, 15-29 knots
blue indicates weak shear of 1-14 knots
FIGURE 2 shows where I think this storm will go so its NOT official.
We will see where this goes.
DANIEL FORMS IN THE EPAC
This morning, the NHC upgraded the Tropical depression to Daniel. It has max sustained winds of 45 mph and 1002 mb pressure "officially" but the ADT numbers support a 60 mph storm witha pressure of 995. This is likely one of those cases where the NHC is being a bit conservative but they are the ones getting paid money to do what they do. So, daniel should move WNW over the next five days and not really effect anybody except shipping lanes.
MAJOR HEAT WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS
With temperatures passing the century mark and heat indices nearing 115, there is extreme danger in the midwest of heat related problems. Around the perimiter of this massive ridge is a series of rain that ignites ever afternoon providing much needed rain. I myself am benefitting from the set up at the cost of others. in the next few days, this ridge should not move very much maybe to the west a bit but very much the same pattern.
Thank you for reading. any feedback is greatly appreciated.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.