wolftribe2009's Blog

Tropical Storm Bonnie

By: wolftribe2009, 3:11 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

I am not an expert; therefore, please forgive me if I miss a forecast or something. The weather is unpredictable and so it is hard to be 100% accurate. I simply wish to learn more about the hurricanes and try my very best to understand them.

The 3rd Tropical Depression of the 2010 season formed at 11 AM, Thursday July 22. The depression formed over the South Eastern Bahamas and looks poised to bring South Florida Tropical Storm conditions. The storm which has been named Bonnie, looks more then likely to have the best chance to strengthen Friday Evening and might be nearer Hurricane Strength Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The odd fact about this particular storm is the straight forward projected path of the storm. I have seen other storms which have been this far out from final landfall and the computer models tend to be all over the place. The majority of the Computer Models are in agreement that the storm is likely headed for the Florida Straits and then towards Eastern Texas or Louisiana. The latest models, have indicated that there is a high possibility of the storm striking along the Louisiana Coastline.

It is too early to tell if the storm will develop into anything big; however, the chance of a Hurricane Landfall isn't out of the question in my book. The major question is what will an upper level low pressure system do which is currently located to the storm's west. The low is creating a great deal of wind shear which is limiting significant strengthening. The Low is starting to move away much faster then expected and so it is likely this reason for the change in intensity forecast. There is a vast amount of extremely high sea surface temperatures ahead of the storm's path which is my greatest concern; other then the area of oil in the eastern gulf of mexico. It doesn't look like there is going to be any shortage of heat content in the storm's path beyond Saturday mourning.

The latest satellite images reveal a good number of thunderstorm activity sprouting up around Long Island, Bahamas. The overall structure of the storm, looks to be even more organized then earlier today.

Below is the latest computer model projected path for the storm which has been provided by Wunderground
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Below is the Latest Projected Path by NOAA
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I am currently looking for a turn more Westward and for Bonnie to move more along a southerly path. It still might make landfall near Miami but I am banking more on the storm passing under South Florida.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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