Hot End to Summer in Parts of East, Cool End in Parts of Northern Plains, But Changes Could Occur in Early Fall

Chris Dolce
Published: July 18, 2019

August is forecast to be hot in parts of the South and East and cooler in the northern Plains and Rockies before some changes potentially occur as we head into fall, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Temperatures in August are expected to be farthest above average from the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the South, similar to what has occurred in much of those regions so far in July.

The northern Plains and portions of the Rockies have the highest chance of seeing below-average temperatures next month. Above-average soil moisture in the northern Plains is one reason temperatures may remain cooler than average in that region. Temperatures often trend cooler when soil moisture is high over a particular area in summer.

The temperature forecast is uncertain as we move into September because the jet-stream pattern might be influenced by tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, something that can't be predicted this far in advance.

For now, computer model forecast guidance indicates that an area from the Southwest into the Rockies and Plains has the highest odds of experiencing below-average temperatures in the first month of fall. Much of the East, South and Northwest could see temperatures near or slightly above average.

A change to the large-scale temperature pattern may occur as we head into October.

This is most notable in parts of the Rockies and adjacent Plains, where warmer-than-average temperatures may develop. That's in contrast to the relatively cool temperatures forecast in portions of those regions in August and September.

Elsewhere, much of the Northwest and South are also forecast to see warmer-than-average conditions in October. The Northeast and Southern California could see temperatures that are somewhat below average.


The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.