U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 141915 
Storm Prediction Center ac 141914 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0214 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 

Valid 142000z - 151200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. 
Today and tonight. 

..20z outlook update... 
No significant changes have been made to the previous forecast. 
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the Continental U.S. Today and 

.Cook.. 10/14/2019 

Previous discussion... /issued 1124 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ 

..Southern Plains through lower Mississippi Valley... 

Scattered showers with embedded widely scattered thunderstorms will 
persist from Texas into the lower MS valley region in association with 
modest isentropic ascent north of a warm front. Sufficient low-level 
shear may exist to support weak/transient updraft rotation with any 
surface-based storm developing along the warm front across southeast 
TX, but any severe threat should remain very marginal. Greater 
coverage of thunderstorms might occur later tonight over The 
Ark-la-tex region as destabilization resulting from low-level 
Theta-E advection increases north of the warm front. 

..middle Mississippi Valley region... 

At least weak destabilization will occur in this region overnight as 
a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet transports modifying 
Continental-polar air northward beneath eastward-advecting plume of 
steeper lapse rates. Increasing forcing for ascent within this zone 
of isentropic ascent downstream from an approaching northern-stream 
shortwave trough should contribute to initiation of a few elevated 
thunderstorms from MO into Illinois and WI later tonight. 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 110222 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 110221 

Mesoscale discussion 2067 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 

Areas affected...parts of North Texas 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674... 

Valid 110221z - 110415z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674 

Summary...the threat of large hail and localized wind damage 
continues over the watch area. 

Discussion...storms have increased in coverage this evening, now 
lining up along and just behind the cold front. Several storms are 
producing large hail, with a few cores long-lived. With time, storms 
may merge into more of a linear structure with a threat of localized 
wind damage. The 00z forward sounding shows ample instability with a 
favorable hodograph to sustained severe storms. The only mitigating 
factor to a more substantial supercell threat will continue to be 
the cold front undercutting the storms. Relatively stable air 
remains over far eastern Texas which may affect/weaken northeastern 
parts of the line first. 

.Jewell.. 10/11/2019 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 31879906 32629787 33489658 33879596 33889529 33419509 
32549551 31939606 31659700 31509773 31529834 31879906