U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 210705 
Storm Prediction Center ac 210704 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0204 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 

Valid 231200z - 241200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

the risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the 
U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. 

The center of a broad and deep, but slowly filling, cyclone is 
generally forecast to continue to slowly migrate across northern 
Ontario into Hudson Bay during this period, while a modest secondary 
low migrates from southern New England into the Canadian Maritimes. 
The trailing cold front appears likely to stall and weaken across 
the central and southern Florida Peninsula, beneath mid-level 
subtropical ridging. 

To the west, models indicate that amplified mid-level ridging over 
the mid-latitude eastern Pacific may take on more of a positive 
tilt, building east-northeastward into British Columbia and the 
Pacific northwest. As this occurs, a downstream short wave trough, 
initially digging across the northern U.S. Rockies, may gradually 
split, with the more vigorous southern portion turning more sharply 
southward toward the southern rockies/High Plains. 

In response to these latter developments, cold surface ridging is 
forecast to build across the northern rockies, and nose eastward and 
southward across much of the northern and Central Plains. There may 
be a weak to modest southerly return flow of moisture into the 
vicinity of a strengthening frontal zone, on the leading edge of the 
colder air, across parts of the Southern Plains by 12z Thursday. 
This may be accompanied by sufficient destabilization to contribute 
to at least some potential for a few thunderstorms, but probably not 
enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. 

.Kerr.. 10/21/2019