U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 051545 
Storm Prediction Center ac 051544 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0944 am CST Thu Dec 05 2019 

Valid 051630z - 061200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Southern Plains 
eastward into Arkansas through early Friday. 

Most of the thunderstorm potential through the forecast period will 
be tied to a compact mid-level shortwave trough currently 
approaching The Four Corners. The eastward advancement of this wave 
will contribute to cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates, which 
should Foster development of a few lightning flashes across 
southwest Kansas and vicinity around 00z. This thunder risk will 
spread east-southeastward in tandem with the shortwave and spread 
across Arkansas overnight through 12z Friday. 

Outside of this region, negligible buoyancy will limit the risk of 
deep convection and the severe risk will remain very low. 

.Cook.. 12/05/2019 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 020005 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 020005 

Mesoscale discussion 2185 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0605 PM CST sun Dec 01 2019 

Areas affected...portions of southern New England 

Concerning...winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 020005z - 020500z 

Summary...a few hours of 1 inch per hour snowfall rates are possible 
in northern Massachusetts into southern Vermont and New Hampshire 
this evening and into the early overnight. The heaviest snowfall is 
expected between 11 PM and 1 am EST. Portions of Connecticut, Rhode 
Island and adjacent Massachusetts will likely continue to see mixed 

Discussion...a surface low is in the process of 
redeveloping/deepening off of the eastern New Jersey coast. Surface 
observations indicated 2-3 mb of deepening in the Long Island 
vicinity over the past 2 hours. As this process continues into the 
evening, increasing low- and mid-level warm advection/frontogenesis 
will Foster snow rates perhaps around an inch an hour, primarily in 
northern Massachusetts and southern Vermont/New Hampshire. Farther 
south, kbox/kokx dual-polarization radar imagery shows a clear 
transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain along the 
Massachusetts/Connecticut border. Areas of Connecticut, Rhode 
Island, and eastern Massachusetts will see lesser snowfall rates and 
mixed precipitation on account of a warm nose within the 850-700 mb 
layer. The highest snowfall rates are forecast to occur between 11 
PM to 1 am EST before deep-layer ascent moves eastward and mid-level 
dry air moves in. 

.Wendt.. 12/02/2019 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


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