U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 141718 
Storm Prediction Center ac 141717 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 

Valid 151200z - 161200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions 
of southeastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...northern 
Texas...east-central Louisiana...southern Mississippi...southern 
Alabama...southern Georgia...and the Florida Panhandle... 

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday 
afternoon across parts of southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and 
northeast Texas. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible 
across the deep south. 

Modest mid-level height falls are expected across the southern tier 
of the Continental U.S. Through the forecast period as a vigorous trough 
amplifies over the upper Midwest. Westerly mid/upper flow will also 
strengthen across the region as a result. In the low-levels, a 
strong front will migrate southeastward across the plains, reaching 
the OK/Texas Red River valley by evening. Low-level flow will also 
strengthen across Alabama and Georgia in concert with an organizing 
surface low in that area during the afternoon. A warm, moist 
airmass (characterized by 70s f dewpoints) will reside from Texas 
eastward to the South Carolina coast. 

..Oklahoma/North Texas... 
Models indicate the presence of an axis of mid-level clouds and 
showers/isolated thunderstorms from North Texas eastward through 
central Alabama through the afternoon. The extent of this activity 
will modulate afternoon destabilization, casting some doubt on the 
eventual evolution of convection along and ahead of the approaching 
cold front. Nevertheless, where sufficient insolation can 
destabilize the low-levels, unidirectional shear profiles orthogonal 
to the initiating cold front and long hodographs (due to strong flow 
aloft) will favor loosely organized convection and perhaps a couple 
of supercells. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficient for hail in a 
few storms, and an isolated severe-wind risk will exist with any 
organized convection that can evolve during the afternoon across the 
marginal risk area - especially with any upscale growth. This 
threat should be primarily diurnally driven and lessen after sunset. 

..east-central Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia... 
An initial band of showers/isolated thunderstorms should reside on 
the northern periphery of the marginal risk area much of the day. 
South of this convection, surface heating will result in development 
of weak, but sufficient instability for an increase in coverage and 
intensity of storms during the afternoon in tandem with a gradually 
deepening surface low over Alabama and Georgia. Low-level flow will 
undergo modest strengthening and backing in response to the 
cyclogenesis, which may Foster updraft rotation in more sustained 
convection. Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief 
tornado may occur with this activity, though weak mid-level lapse 
rates should limit the extent of the threat. Any severe risk should 
be primarily diurnally driven and lessen after dark due to a 
combination of convective overturning and nocturnal boundary layer 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: 2% - marginal 
wind: 5% - marginal 
hail: 5% - marginal 

.Cook.. 10/14/2019