U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 181701 
Storm Prediction Center ac 181700 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1200 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the 
upper Midwest... 

Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the upper Midwest 
Monday evening and overnight. 

..Dakotas into northwest Minnesota... 
Zonal flow will characterize the flow regime across the northern 
tier of states. A mid-level speed Max initially near the Idaho/Mt/BC 
border will quickly move east to the Dakotas by Tuesday morning. 
Southerly low-level flow on the backside of a surface high 
developing eastward into the Great Lakes from the upper Midwest, 
will advect 60s degrees f dewpoints northward into the Dakotas to 
the southeast of a weak area of low pressure. Strong heating 
abutting a north-south surface trough/wind shift will likely 
weaken/locally erode convective inhibition by late afternoon/early 
evening. Isolated storms are possible along the wind shift and 
later along a cold front. The stronger storms are capable of an 
isolated risk for hail/severe gusts. 

..northern New York into ME... 
Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the 
shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast 
soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the 
day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely 
mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe 
weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be 
ruled out with gusty winds and small hail. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: 5% - marginal 
hail: 5% - marginal 

.Smith.. 08/18/2019