- Day Three
acus02 kwns 181701
Storm Prediction Center ac 181700
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019
Valid 191200z - 201200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the
Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the upper Midwest
Monday evening and overnight.
..Dakotas into northwest Minnesota...
Zonal flow will characterize the flow regime across the northern
tier of states. A mid-level speed Max initially near the Idaho/Mt/BC
border will quickly move east to the Dakotas by Tuesday morning.
Southerly low-level flow on the backside of a surface high
developing eastward into the Great Lakes from the upper Midwest,
will advect 60s degrees f dewpoints northward into the Dakotas to
the southeast of a weak area of low pressure. Strong heating
abutting a north-south surface trough/wind shift will likely
weaken/locally erode convective inhibition by late afternoon/early
evening. Isolated storms are possible along the wind shift and
later along a cold front. The stronger storms are capable of an
isolated risk for hail/severe gusts.
..northern New York into ME...
Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the
shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast
soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the
day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely
mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe
weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be
ruled out with gusty winds and small hail.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: 5% - marginal
hail: 5% - marginal