Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 211800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/211800z-221800zoct2019//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 97a) previously located
near 12.5n 66.7e, is now located near 12.6n 63.6e, approximately 500
nm southeast of masirah island. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery depicts disorganized flaring convection and minimal upper
level turning. A 211642z AMSU 89ghz image shows poorly organized
convection sheared to the west of a weak circulation with a broad
area of mostly 15 kt winds displaced from the center. Analysis of
the current environment reveals diffluent flow aloft with a poleward
outflow channel, low to moderate vertical wind shear (15 to 20
knots), and warm (29-30 celsius) sea surface temperatures which are
conducive for further development. Global models are slow to develop
the broad system with the earliest appearance of 35 knot winds by
tau 72. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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