Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 180600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/180600z-190600zaug2019//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 98w) previously located
near 22.3n 155.2e, is now located near 23.0n 151.5e, approximately
607 nm east of iwo to. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
shows a fully exposed, well-defined low level circulation center
(LLCC) with convection being heavily sheared to the southwest. An
180256z amsr2 gw1 89ghz microwave image depicts a highly elliptical
LLCC largely devoid of deep convection with dry air being entrained
from the north. An 180008z metop-b ascat pass shows small swaths of
15 to 20 knot winds to the north and east of the LLCC. 98w is
currently in an unfavorable environment with weak upper level
outflow, high (20 to 25 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm (27 to
28 celsius) sea surface temperatures. A 00z sounding of
minamitorijima (rjam), approximately 121 nm northeast of 98w, shows
deep easterly wind flow of dry, stable air. Global models are in
very good agreement that 98w will weaken and be absorbed into a
poleward mid-latitude cyclone. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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