Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 111703

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1203 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Northerly gales continue in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico behind
a cold front. The gale force winds are expected to continue south
of 21n and west of 94w through this evening before diminishing.
Sea heights of 12-16 ft are expected in the area. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc for further details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra 
Leone near 08n13w to 06n18w. The ITCZ continues from 06n18w to
00n43w. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen within
240 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between the West Coast of
Africa and 37w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends from near Clearwater Florida to 26n90w to
24n92w to 17n94w. Gale force winds are over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico behind the front. See section above for details on the Gale
Warning. Elsewhere behind the front, strong to near gale force
winds prevail over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. A 
pre-frontal trough is over the Eastern Bay of Campeche from 
24n91.5w to 18n93w. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are 
seen along the pre-frontal trough north of 20n. Isolated to 
scattered showers and tstorms are elsewhere within 30 nm behind 
and 120 nm ahead of the cold front, west of 86w. Scattered showers
are also occurring in the NE Gulf of Mexico in between the 
western Florida Panhandle and the Delta Region of se Louisiana. 
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen near the 
lower Florida Keys. Dry air is filtering in over the NW Gulf of 
Mexico behind the front.

The cold front will become stationary from Tampa Bay to the Bay 
of Campeche tonight. The front will weaken through Thu, with 
frontal remnants lifting back to the north through Fri night as 
low pressure forms over the west-central Gulf. This low will track
northeastward across the north-central waters through early Sat, 
with the associated cold front sweeping across the eastern Gulf 
through Sat night. The front will leave behind a dissipating 
boundary across the far se Gulf on sun. High pressure will build 
southward across the central and eastern Gulf in the wake of this 
front with fresh to strong southerly flow setting up over the 
western Gulf by late sun.

Caribbean Sea...

A mid to upper-level low is centered generally near 20n60w. 
Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are affecting portions of 
the leeward and Virgin Islands north of 15.5n and east of 64.5w. 
Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere in the Caribbean east 
of 66.5w and north of 15n. Drier weather is over the north-central
and northwestern Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated 
tstorms are affecting the far SW Caribbean in association with the
east Pacific monsoon trough. Additional isolated to scattered 
showers are seen over the remainder of the southern Caribbean 
south of 13.5n. The latest ascat pass shows strong trades over the
central Caribbean from 10.5n-17n between 71w-80w. Winds and seas 
will gradually diminish across the region through Fri as high 
pressure in the central Atlantic shifts eastward. 

Atlantic Ocean... 

A cold front extends from 32n76w to New Smyrna Beach Florida near
29n81w to Clearwater Florida. A pre-frontal trough is from 30n77w
to 27n79w. Scattered moderate convection is near the pre-frontal
trough. A surface trough is from 30n65w to 23n67w with possible
isolated showers near the trough. A mid to upper-level low is
centered generally near 20n60w. Scattered moderate showers and
tstorms are from 17n-26n between 55w-64w. An upper-level trough
extends northeastward from the upper-low to 28n50w to 31n41w. A
few showers are located underneath the upper-trough axis. At the
surface, ridging prevails across the most of the basin, anchored
by a 1044 mb high near 39n32w. The latest ascat pass shows that
trade winds are mostly in the 18-25 kt range across the Atlantic 
from 15n-32n between 20w-58w.

The cold front that extends from 32n76w to New Smyrna Beach 
Florida will reach from near 31n73w to West Palm Beach by late 
tonight and from near 31n70w to 28n76w and stationary to West Palm
Beach on Thu and gradually weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds are expected north of the front tonight through 
late Thu night, while large seas are expected over the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas through early Fri. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds will develop over the far north-central 
waters beginning late on Fri night. These winds will expand 
eastward through Sat night ahead of the next cold front forecast 
to move off the southeastern U.S. Coast on Sat. This front will 
quickly move across the waters north of 27n through Sun night, 
with the fresh to strong winds lifting NE of the area Sun night.

In the far northeastern Atlantic, near gale NE winds are expected
Thursday and Thursday night from the coast of Morocco through the
Canary Islands.




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