Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 141736

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...Special features...

Post-tropical cyclone Melissa is centered near 41.0n 51.4w at
14/1500 UTC or 350 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at
20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered 
showers are within 120 nm of the E semicircle of Melissa. 
Gale-force winds extend outward up to 91 nm, mainly to the 
southeast through southwest of the center. See the last NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcpat4/wtnt34 knhc 
for more details. 

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean Sea near 
16n85w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 240 nm of the center, over Caribbean waters. This system 
is expected to move west-northwestward across Honduras, southern 
Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical 
cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, 
however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of 
Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for
some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this 
system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and 
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. See the latest NHC 
tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers miatwoat/abnt20 
knhc for more details. 

...Tropical wave over Africa...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa from 18n18w to an
embedded 1006 mb low near 12n19w to 04n19w. The wave is moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
11n-19n between 11w-24w. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere
within 240 nm of the wave axis. This convection is showing signs 
of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or
so while the disturbance moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward near the Cabo Verde islands. Strong upper-level 
winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This 
system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to portions of the Cabo Verde islands later today through 
Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this 
system. This system has a high chance for tropical development 
within the next 48 hours.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 15n47w to an 
embedded 1011 mb low near 10n48w to 05n48w. The wave is moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
from 09n-15n between 43w-52w.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis along 61w from 
20n southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted 
in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the wave axis. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of senegal near 15n17w
to 07n23w to 04n30w. The ITCZ continues from 04n30w to 05n40w to
09n46w. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09n51w to
06n58w. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, 
isolated moderate convection is from 02n-06n between 23w-33w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31n87w
to 29n90w to SW Louisiana near 30n94w. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. Further S, a surface trough is over the
Bay of Campeche from 21n93w to 18n93w. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, a large
upper level high is centered over the NW Gulf near 26n97w. Strong
subsidence covers most of the Gulf. 

The stationary front will lift to the north of the area as a warm
front this afternoon. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure 
centered east of northern Florida will maintain little change to 
winds and seas through Tue night. The next cold front will push 
into the northern Gulf waters on Wed, reach from near Ceder key, 
Florida to near 26n90w and stationary to the Lower Texas coast 
late Wed. The cold front will become stationary on Thu from near 
Fort Myers to near 26n90w and to near northeastern Mexico. A broad
area of low pressure, that is currently over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea, is expected to to move across Central America and 
into the Bay of Campeche by Wed. Numerous showers and 
thunderstorms will accompany this area of low pressure.

Caribbean Sea...

Refer to the special features section above for the heavy rainfall
event currently occurring over Central America and the W Caribbean.
Also refer to the tropical wave over the E Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the 
basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean S of 13n. 

The low over the western Caribbean will slowly move west- 
northwestward across Central America through Tue night and into 
the southern Gulf of Mexico late Tue night and Wed. Fresh to 
strong east to southeast winds are likely mainly over the 
northwest part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and 
Honduras tonight into Tue as a surface trough forms on the east 
side of the low pressure in that general area. Showers and 
thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean are expected to 
persist through early Wed. A tropical wave will move across the 
tropical N Atlantic Tue through late Wed night, then across the 
eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave. 

Atlantic Ocean...

Refer to the special features section above for information on 
Tropical Storm Melissa and the tropical waves moving across the

A 1020 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30n76w. A surface
trough is N of the Leeward Islands from 26n59w to 21n65w.
Scattered moderate convection is from 21n-26n between 58w-63w. 
Elsewhere, a cold front is E of the Canary Islands from 31n10w to

Over the W Atlantic, a weak pressure pattern will remain in 
place through Tue night maintaining little change to present 
conditions. Moderate to strong southwest winds will develop over 
northwest forecast waters early on Wed in advance of the next cold
front. This cold front will reach the far northwest part of the 
area Wed evening, then reach from near 31n75w to Cape Canaveral 
late Wed night, from near 31n73w to Stuart, Florida early Thu and 
weaken as it reaches from near 31n64w to 27n73w, and stationary 
from there to West Palm Beach. The moderate to strong southwest 
ahead of the front will lift north of the area late on Wed. 
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are expected behind the
front Wed night, becoming gentle to moderate north to northeast 
winds by Fri.



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