Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 220134

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0125 UTC Tue Oct 22 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99w N of 06n, moving west 
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06n to 
15n between 92w and 103w.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from 08n78w to 14n95w to 10n115w to
low pressure near 11n125w 1010 mb to 08n132w to beyond 09n140w.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07n to 15n between 82w and
92w and from 07n to 14n between 115w and 140w.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

NW swell will gradually decay off the coast of Baja California
tonight through Tue. Strong northerly gap winds are expected 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night, increasing to near gale
force Wed morning and prevailing through Wed evening. The next 
gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected late Fri 
night and continuing through the weekend with possible gale force
winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are 
expected tonight and Fri over the northern Gulf of California. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region 
through this week. SW swell across the area will continue to
subside tonight. Wave heights in the 6 to 8 ft range will 
decrease over the region to 5 to 6 ft by Tue night, and 4 to 6 
ft by Wed night. 

Remainder of the area...

The remnant low of Octave continues to meander near 11n125w.
Scattered moderate convection in association with the remnant low
is oriented along the monsoon trough, mainly from 08n to 14n 
between 120w and 130w. Generally moderate to fresh winds will 
persist near the low center for the next couple days, until the 
system opens up into a trough. 

Although NW swell will continue to decay through Tue, daytime
altimeter passes indicate wave heights of 8 ft to 10 ft across
much of the waters N of 12n and W of 115w. By Tue night, most 
areas should have seas subsiding to less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, a
high pressure ridge prevails across the waters north of 20n. 
Fresh NE winds prevail between the ridge and the monsoon trough 
west of 120w. Little change is expected over the next couple 



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