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fxus64 kshv 172340 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Shreveport la
640 PM CDT sun may 17 2020

aside from brief MVFR cigs in/near mlu through early evening, VFR
conditions are expected, with the cu/ac cigs on the backside of
the upper trough over the lower MS valley expected to diminish
through 06z Monday. While sky clear is expected overnight over much of
the area, some elevated cu should increase after 06z across
portions of east TX, and across the remainder of East Texas/extreme SW
Arkansas/wrn la by mid to late morning, persisting through the
afternoon before diminishing. Northwest winds 5-10kts are expected
tonight through Monday. /15/


Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT sun may 17 2020/

Short term.../tonight through Monday night/

Upper trough continues to make slow yet steady progress eastward
across our region this afternoon. With just a little heating, still
able to generate some isolated more convective towers along the
backside of the more scattered to numerous shower shield across our
eastern third. As we lose the heating of the day and with the system
continuing to propagate eastward, should see coverage begin to
diminish through the evening but did hang on to chance pops across
our southeast parishes which lines up well with latest high res
solutions for this evening. Precipitation should be all east of our
region by midnight if not sooner. Like the precipitation, the cloud
cover should continue to scatter out this evening and as well which
along with decoupling winds, should allow for much cooler
temperatures tonight compared to what we've seen the last couple
mornings. Did undercut nbm temps just a few degrees, closer the
metmos values given the expected above Post frontal conditions
setting up overnight.

Should see a good warmup on Monday as sfc ridging should be, for the
most part, moving into our region from the west. Thus did not stray
too far from nbm Max temps for Monday. By Monday night, will be
watching the progression of a vigorous upper level trough that will
close itself off as it moves due south across the upper Midwest and
into the tenn valley. The close proximity of this feature to our
region will mean we may see a backdooring cold front into our region
Monday night. While this system will have its own moisture
associated with it, don't think it will be enough to generate any
precipitation, at least through Monday night.



Long term.../Tuesday through Sunday/

What originally appeared to be a rather quiet upcoming week has
begun to trend more uncertain/unsettled due to a broad scale upper
trough diving south from the Great Lakes region with a closed low
becoming almost stationary over the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, a
highly amplified upper ridge will set up just to our west across the
plains. The end result will be our region lying between these two
longwave features with impulses of upper level energy riding down
the back side of the upper low across parts of our region. In turn,
look for at least some slight rain chances through much of the week
with the best odds falling across our NE zones closer to the upper
low. Convection will be more likely during the daytime hours with
greater atmospheric destabilization during peak heating. Expect
temperatures to primarily to range through the 80s during mid week
but gradually increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s during the
late week timeframe and into the weekend with greater subsidence as
the upper ridge builds east and the upper trough lifts back to the
NE toward the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region. Slight rain
chances will continue through the weekend, mainly in the form of
diurnal convection during peak afternoon heating.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 59 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
mlu 59 83 62 84 / 40 0 0 20
deq 51 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 20
txk 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
eld 55 82 57 82 / 10 0 0 20
tyr 60 84 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
ggg 58 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
lfk 60 87 65 91 / 0 0 0 10


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...

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